Recently in Reno I overheard someone predict, “Forget Wikipedia. How about someone create ‘Liquorpedia’ with an encyclopedia of alcohol and drink recipes?” Remember when many “experts” predicted that a) Amazon was going to enter the lending biz and trample everyone, and b) Costco, after announcing it was offering mortgages to members, was going to drive any remaining lenders out of business? Neither has happened, and in fact, Costco has ended its mortgage “perk” for members. (There’s even some Costco humor in the joke section.) Meanwhile, Zillow, which has ended its iBuying business, is watching its stock hit multi-year lows, mimicking nearly every lender’s stock price. And why not? We’re seeing the highest 30-year mortgage rates since 2009, firmly in the 5s, and little inventory for sale. Rate and term refis have nearly vanished, and last week’s move by our Fed has short term rates predictably moving h
Daylight Saving Time for much of the nation springs up Sunday morning, leading to plenty of grousing on Monday. What else is going on? “Please listen carefully, as our menu options have changed.” We’ve all heard that recording countless times when dialing a business. As an industry, our menu options have changed, or at least shifted. We all knew rates wouldn’t be in the 2’s forever and that refi burnout would take place. In our biz, lenders and MLOs continue to pivot to a purchase-centric focus. Independent mortgage bankers are warily watching CRA developments around the nation, which are spelled out in MCT’s Review, by Robbie Chrisman. Oh, and are we headed for an inverted yield curve? Due to the work from home (“WFH”) shift, a survey shows nearly 19 million more people want to move! The rise in oil prices and the flow of money is causing Texas laborers to move from building houses to working the oil rigs in the Permian Basin. We
Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. If you haven’t seen a video this one from a drone ) of the destruction in the South and Midwest, especially Kentucky, take a look. The loss of human and animal life is terrible, and it will take years to clean up and rebuild the communities. (Many in our industry have had some good years; The Better Business Bureau has a list of charities in those areas that can help.) The tornadoes that struck a few days ago were predicted, but due to a few reasons the fatalities were high. Shifting our attention, who predicted these inflation numbers that we’ve seen in recent months? Certainly not the Fed. These sky-high numbers remind us that, as Dr. Michael Fratantoni puts it, “All forecasts are wrong but some are useful.”
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