of an actual invasion, probably late january. the ground will freeze, it will make it easier to move big armored columns. i see equipment upon which russian troops with military expression here fall in on and get into play. and i see vladimir putin not only rattling a saber but actually taking it out and waving it around. so the question is what are the real chances of an attack here? i think it s probably one in five, which is relatively low, but in my view unacceptably high. so what should we be doing about it? i think the biden administration has it about right, which is to let vladimir putin know that there will be high cost here in both blood and treasure, meaning this will not be a military layup. ukrainians will fight. they re a well-armed society. a lot of military training.