The Myanmar military will mark Armed Forces Day on Wednesday with its usual parade in the purpose-built capital of Naypyidaw. Thousands of armed troops from all three branches will march in formation, while tanks roll through the streets and fighter jets screech overhead. But the show of strength will do little to paper over the reality – Myanmar’s military is at its weakest point in decades. Perhaps not since 1949, when the Karen National Union captured the Insein neighbourhood, in the