The Ides of March… And college basketball time. Here in Kentucky (men #6 in the East, Louisville women’s team #5) I overheard someone on the phone. “Yesterday I saw a woman in Walmart with March Madness teeth. She was down to her final four.” March Madness is in full swing, whether it is hoops or bonds. Or bank stocks. Is this really a fundamental structural plunging of the United States’ financial system? Doubtful. Moody’s came out with a warning about downgrading certain banks in the United States. It is not 2008. How much of this is psychology? Tweeting causing a run on deposits? Banks everywhere are looking at their liabilities (deposits, since they owe their depositors money) and assets (the money lent out using their depositor’s money, or securities owned. “Lending long and borrowing short” works when banks can pay very little on their deposits (like checking accounts earning 0 percent) and take that money and earn 4
As packages of mortgage servicing rights continue to hit the market, and some wonder at the high multiples, know that the percentage of borrowers current on their mortgage payments increased to almost 95 percent, 350 basis points higher than one year ago. Other stats show that foreclosure starts jumped in February. The MBA’s monthly Loan Monitoring Survey also revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 12 basis points to 1.18 percent of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month as of February 28, leaving 590k homeowners in forbearance plans. That marks the 21st consecutive month that percentage of borrowers in forbearance has declined. Finally, the percentage of borrowers with existing loan workouts who were current on their mortgage payments improved for the first time since June 2021. Marina Walsh, MBA’s VP of Industry Analysis, said, “These three results (the lower forbearance rates and higher performance rates for bo