With the first half of the year now in the books, 2022 has thus far provided an unexpected and tumultuous ride. It was only six months ago when the S&P 500 reached all-time highs in a world where lingering supply chain pressures and potential COVID outbreaks seemed to be the two most pressing risks to economies across the globe. While those two dangers are abating, a refreshed slate of macro-overhangs may be more daunting than ever. Included are the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising interest rates and soaring levels of inflation.
As the world was emerging from a once in century pandemic, global and national events during the first three months of 2022 have resulted in a transformative quarter unlike any for nearly 80 years. During the nuclear superpower age, the notion of an unprovoked brutal attack and invasion of a sovereign state was the stuff of fiction. “Never again” is a phrase associated with the Holocaust, the genocide of European Jews during World War II. Unfortunately, the phrase is merely two words as history is currently repeating itself in Eastern Europe.
During 2021, vaccines and booster shots paved the way for a brief return to some semblance of normalcy, however as we enter 2022 the nearly two-year global health crisis is not over. Since the end of November, the Omicron variant of COVID-19 has surged, bringing record high daily counts of infection resulting in many companies further delaying their longawaited return-to-office.
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The U.S. economy is expected to grow roughly six percent for the year, however with one quarter to go in 2021, this year has done its best to be as tumultuous and volatile as the last. It feels like we’ve been on this road for a while, with the same kinds of bumps to navigate including COVID, deepening supply chain issues, higher energy prices, a recent cutback in consumer spending, and the scarcity of materials.