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Analyst: Second pillar pension payouts came at a slightly bad time

Bank of Estonia: 2020 economic forecast misread due to false assumptions

Economic forecasts made early on in the coronavirus pandemic turned out to have been overly pessimistic for 2020 and, to an extent, 2021, the Bank of Estonia (Eesti Pank) says, and were based on some unfounded assumptions. While the early stages of the pandemic in spring 2020 may have represented uncharted waters, lessons can be drawn for forecasts going forward, even in the case of returning restrictions and in relation to the international coronavirus picture, as well as the domestic one. At the same time, Estonia s relatively mild restrictions compared with many other EU and European nations - including its nearest neighbors such as Latvia and Finland - has likely had a positive effect on economic recovery and growth, while the arrival of vaccine doses at the end of 2020, gathering in pace in the spring, has done the same.