Truss. We are probably going to hear a pretty unapologetic difference truss. We are probably going to hear a pretty unapologetic difference of. A pretty unapologetic difference of her record in government, a shorter term in government, little more than 1. 5 months. A year ago. Thank you very much. It is great to be hit thank you very much. It is great to be hit at thank you very much. It is great to be hit at the thank you very much. It is great to be hit at the institute of government today. I am having a rather government today. I am having a rather more relaxing september than i did last rather more relaxing september than i did last year, and you might well ask, why i did last year, and you might well ask, why am i back talking about the same ask, why am i back talking about the same topic . Ask, why am i back talking about the same topic . It is one year ago that i launched same topic . It is one year ago that i launched my government and our economic i launched my government and
governments worldwide have to reconsider partial lockdowns, further restrictions, the impact that will have. yes. i think lockdowns impact that will have. yes. i think lockdowns will - impact that will have. yes. i think lockdowns will get - impact that will have. yes. i i think lockdowns will get better managed and the gdp impact should be less damaging. now people are really concerned about inflation. we have seen that supply chains get really easilyjammed up. that leads to shortages and price squeezes. the labour market, particularly in the us, where they had so much covid support programme, they are really struggling to hire and if there is another wave of coronavirus but doesn t encourage people back into the workforce. so if we re going to see interest rates have to go to limit inflation, that also, that spreads out all over the dust at all of the world, emerging markets are often prized of us interest rates. you have got investments and junk bonds, there are
wanted to erase the gains you have achieved by the tax cuts and tax reform, you would do this. a trade war. how immediately might the economy see this effect? i think the markets would see this first. we re getting a huge tax cut. it will even out. markets are reacting to a lot of things. possibly higher interest rates. possibly a much bigger u.s. deficit, which would push up interest rates even more. if the tax cuts don t have the gdp impact we ll get much higher. then we ll throw in a trade war. dana: all right. charles gasparino, i m glad i read that piece. a special election in pennsylvania in the home stretch. candidates appear to be in a dead heat. can republican candidate rick saccone pull out a victory? he joins me live next. plus, could china retall kwraoeufrt the aluminum and steel tariffs and what would be the implication. general jack keane will join me.
now and december 31st, but the get a framework on revenues and on some basic principles that get you to where you re going. but i want to ask andrew one question. we started this whole discussion with the notion of the fiscal cliff, right? you know there are people on the left and people on the right who are both saying, there is no cliff. what are you talking about? what cliff? this is no big deal. so explain to us actually you talked about the gdp impact at the very top of this block. what s the argument for hey, don t worry about this? this cliff isn t for real. and what s the counterargument to that? the argument for this not being a cliff is to say, you know, if we go over it or january 1st arrives, guess what? we have certainty. we have certainty that taxes are going to go up, that the sequester is going to be there, and some people would argue, paul krugman would say, it s there, it s in stone. let it ride. when we come back, polit o politico s jonathan martin
might impact the markets but the political dynamic because you will have a rise in tax revenues and tax rates which the republicans won t feel in any way responsible for. they can blame the other side. and so there are certainly some on the democrat side who would say actually, let s just do that and that will make it easy to discuss and negotiate afterwards. what would the market reaction be? the market reaction would be negative because you are looking at potential gdp impact of 2%, 3%, 4% and the reality is, that almost certainly will put america back into recession. gillian tett great to see you in person. thank you. special treat. we ll be right back. [ male announcer ] it s that time of year again. time for citi price rewind. because your daughter really wants that pink castle thing. and you really don t want to pay more than you have to.