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forecast tracker back in the 1990s. so we slashed it by about a third. and in fact at this particular point the average forecast tracker at 96 hours this decade, 129 hours. that is actually slightly better than it was for 24 hours back in the 1970s. so we have seen tremendous accuracy jump in terms of predicting the track of hurricanes and that is part of the reason why we were able to give out these warnings for idalia so early on. harry, it is me out here in clearwater. i am listening to your every word even before i have had coffee. thank you for always bringing the great numbers to you. i do want to ask you, have we humans or scientists gotten better at forecasting a storm s intensity as well? yeah, we talked about how much better we ve gotten at the track, but how about the intensity? this is the average intensity forecast surge in 24 hours.
there is that rotation currently, and there is still a little bit of indecision exactly where this storm will go and how long it s going to take to get there. that s because we re about to see a turn to the north that s going to to be running over the island of cuba. it s kind of a rocky island are, mountainous island. so this is our forecast tracker. you are looking around monday by the time you get up into south florida, staying a tropical storm. no longer going to restrengthen and become a hurricane, but a tropical storm nonetheless that could bring heavy rain and at times strong winds. winds currently at 70 miles an hour. these are a bunch of different forecast models. it hits cuba and then all of a sudden the models, very wide range there the, perhaps running up the east coast, perhaps out into the gulf of mexico. we re going to have a better idea once this finally moves over cuba and running into south florida by monday morning. otherwise you looking at a lot of heat in the centr