The government s revenue collections are robust, with a 12% increase in GST collections and a 17-18% increase in direct tax collections. The fiscal deficit numbers are expected to be better than estimated for FY24, and the revised target for FY25 will be lower based on a projected nominal GDP growth of 10.5% to 11%. There may be a rebalancing from capex to subsidies, which would benefit the common man by providing relief from high food inflation.
Manish Sonthalia says: “Indian markets cannot fall big. The earning season is unlikely to disappoint majorly on the downside, as expected for the Q3, if the earnings trajectory numbers are going to be something like a 10-12% growth. Those numbers would be broadly achieved, if not outperformed. I do not really foresee how numbers can terribly disappoint for FY25.”
Manish Sonthalia says: "There could be some time correction in mid and small caps during FY2024, not too much price correction, as SIP flows and retail participation in this space are pretty strong. The IPO market is pretty heated up in general SME or Main Board IPOs. IPOs would in general be an avoid."
“Financials are an ignored lot and have been underperforming for some time. If the profit momentum is to happen, then financials will lead. That is one space. I would believe technology again is going to make a comeback sooner than later. The valuations here are very palatable. The third space is pharmaceuticals. They will come back on a low base.”