think it is tricky to work out how close a confidence vote is, it is peaks and chops. there was a moment probably late last night where despite some saying things were coming in the parliamentary party, there was increased expectation among mps that the 54 that is required for a no confidence vote were coming in, then earlier this morning lots of people were talking about tensions being raised this afternoon, you mentioned that defection and stretching of a tory mp defecting to labour, not to stand as an independent but to cross to the opposition, has actually helped borisjohnson a bit today because ultimately mps have almost returned to tribal politics that they do not want to give labour what they see as a win, going against borisjohnson if it is going to help labour, so i think it has almost slowed things down slightly again and i think the