In inevifable but i think the risk of a downturn have risen significantly. we have gotten unlucky. we kind of needed everything to go right. we needed the economy to reopen, supply chains to unwind, people to go back to work and not have anything else bad happen. instead, it s been one thing after another. we had these covid lock ddowns ch china. we had the war in ukraine that is whorrendous for other republicans beyond the loss of life. you said to avoid recession everything needed to go right and it didn t.