africa where it is slowing down at almost the same speed. doctor fauci says that, look, we don t have enough information to understand what the differences are in population concentrations or demographics. or things like that. but is it possible that this is a different sort of graph of this infection? it very well may be. i will say that it is doubly time, it is so extraordinary. those of you watching that are unvaccinated, this version of this virus will come find you. that, to me, seems like it is a foregone conclusion there. whether it is going to spike or come down like it did in south africa, we will see. but my colleagues at the institute for health metrics, they are forecasting 10,000 weekly deaths, week over week, just from covid, whether it is delta and a combination of omicron. so we are not out of this. yet flu season is approaching people pre-pandemic levels.
but if you are triple-vaccinated and doing all the right things, travel safe, you are safe. by the way, the institute for health metrics at the university of washington is the gold standard in terms of projections and has turned out to be very accurate. talk to me about health care workers, vin. we are seeing health care workers getting sick, we see the cdc changing its guidelines, about if a health care worker but is asymptomatic and they get a negative test and they isolate, they can get back to work soon. how severe is this shortage of health care workers? it is acute and chronic, i would say. this has long existed. 40% of nurses are due to see leave the workforce by 2030. now you couple omicron, this is a major problem for system already stressed. what the cdc did today was a great first step.
that with, that let s bring in our lead off guest on this thursday night, peter baker is the donna edwards, a former democratic member of congress, now washington post, columnist and barbara mcquade, a federal prosecutor and former united states process she worked for the department of justice, during the biden transition. she s a professor with the university of she host the podcast, sisters in, law along with kimberly atkins, and joyce vance, good evening to all of you. peter baker, let s start with you. rough week in general for the white house, particularly with the collapse of build back better unexpectedly on the news last sunday, but, the omicron virus in the testing requirements that it calls for our something the white house has been behind the curb on all week. yeah, look, the one thing that president biden promised as a candidate last year for office, he would tackle covid, and help us get through this pandemic. now, through fault of his own,
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to work sooner. how serious is this issue of a potential shortage of health care workers? well, it s acute and chronic. this is a problem here that we knew has long existed. 40% of nurses are due to leave the workforce by 2030. 30% of doctors. now you couple omicron, everybody getting exposed, some testing positive, this is a major problem for a system that s already stressed. so what the cdc did today was a great first step. you ll see airlines, flight attendants, other places where there s key staff, maybe not in the health care sector also clamoring for this policy change. it s good for health care workers, it s good for other frontline workers, just like in terms of in the u.k. you re going to see this across sectors. i want to talk to you about these antiviral pills. merck s drug reduced the risk of hospitalizations or death by 30% according to the new york times when given to high-risk unvaccinated people within five days of the onset of symptoms.