to happen, let s talk about timing. the secretary of state said one of the considerations possibly that putin has, maybe why the invasion has not happened, is because the winter olympics are going to begin in just a few days and he knows that xi jinping would not be, in her words, not be ecstatic about putin choosing that time. do you give that argument any credence? i think that might figure in in part of the calculation. i don t think it is the sole driver. i think what the russians are waiting for is for more troops on the border. i think if the russians do go into ukraine, this will be a very big operation. it won t be just turning up the heat in eastern ukraine. it will be a charge aerospace fight with a lot of long range strikes, followed by ground forces. in my opinion, my own assessment, even possibly going all the way to kyiv or even a little west of kyiv. i think it will take longer to get forces in place that they need to do that kind of operation. but i think the twiming