demand for housing and cars, one of the problems for the fed at a moment like this, is this business cycle didn t look anything like past recessions, they don t really have a playbook. more demand for houses, more people trying to buy cars and buying tvs. they are trying to waive those off, how fast to raise interest rates to cool the economy, without cooling it so much it drives us to recession, that is the watch word for that year, we have a major grow out, great job growth and economic growth 2021. but all of that rolls off , almost off in 2022, the growth rate already
of course there s a danger of that. there is a danger that if you do not snuff it out before it catches home, like a sunburn, like the time you see it is too late and you will be in pain, i think that i want to remind everybody to have some sympathy for the feds. it s a difficult situation that they re in because this was not a normal recession. in a way, there was no recession at all, just a huge downturn. but these things that are driving down is that when people stop buying tvs, and houses, the simple housing went up, ev purchases went up, cars went blooming through the roof. the thing that caused the downturn was people stopped going to the dentist, they stop going to the restaurants. services that are usually
why is that happening? yeah. look, it feels it feels, in a way, kind of bonkers. we started the year booming and the virus coming down. then we get into the summer. the virus comes back. the economy slows. now hopefully we get back some control of the virus and growth comes back. i think what s happening on inflation is that if you go look at the numbers, there has been 20 years we reversed 20 years of trend of spending on physical products. usually what we spend almost all our money on are services, and that went down during the pandemic because people didn t want to go to the doctor. people didn t want to go to disneyland. people didn t want to fly in an airplane, go to a restaurant, all of that kind of stuff that we normally spend our money on was replaced with buying tvs, buying pelotons, buying a bunch of physical goods at a rate that we ve never had before, and the supply chain cannot satisfy that
pandemic because people didn t want to go to the doctor, people didn t want to go to disneyland, people don t want to fly on an airplane, they don t want to go to a restaurant, all of that kind of stuff that we normally spent our money on was replaced with buying tvs, buying pelotons, buying a bunch of physical goods at a rate that we ve never had before, and the supply chain cannot satisfy that kind of demand. so that s why i say we ve got to get control of the virus so we can go back to spending our money on all the stuff we used to spend our money on. and the fact that all the other countries of the world are trying to buy a bunch of physical goods at the same time, we are, has made this a worldwide problem. so germany s got the fastest inflation in almost 30 years. china announced they ve got the fastest inflation in almost 30 years. u.s. fastest inflation in 31 years. that s not a coincidence. it s because it s a global supply chain and everybody s overloading it. i ve thought a
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