the story is simple, youngkin is up in polls, a month ago mcauliffe leading by four points ahead, now slice in half, now youngkin with one-point lead. that s within the margin of error but momentum is clearly on his side. it wouldn t be surprising to me if either candidate wins i put more on glen youngkin. why? if you look right now at the voters most likely to turn out, what do you see? you see republican are more likely to turn out than democrats. for republicans are more enthusiastic than democrats, you are seeing youngkin hold one point lead and registered voters, mcauliffe has three
exceptions, american people tend to like balance, we don t know how it will play out now in such an untraditional time. i like slide five. i think it makes a very important point about the true risk for democrats, whichsen enthusism yeah who will come out. explain this. this is essentially a poll by monmouth university said how motivated are you to come out the vote. we re seeing 80% white voters and black voters 65% if mcauliffe wins he will need black voters to come out and get it closer to presidential year electorate but we re seeing in the polling black voters are nowhere near motivated as white voters are. so one thing i ll look at is whether or not black voters show up in heavily african-american areas in virginia, if they do mcauliffe may win as polling
r. if you look among white voters with college degree you ll see donald trump is quite unpopular to them but youngkin net popularity white voters with college degree is 15 points higher than donald trump. even with voters without a college degree but youngkin limited the losses with voters without degree, donald trump could not. we ve been nationalizing this as a window into early metrics. people were looking at vote in virginia through the lens how they felt about trump or biden. mcauliffe seized on that and made this race about youngkin being another trump who went hard on culture issues, what are they teaching kids in school, what s going on with the mask, who made the better bet?
enthusiasm who don t think folks in washington delivered what they want the, yes they wanted trump out but they wanted somebody to actually do something. we know from the polygamy over and over we know from the polling over and over again a lot of democrats feel joe biden and party haven t accomplished a great deal. this will be the first test to show whether or not keep democrats from home and independent voters turning against democrats because that switched from trump in 2016 to biden 2020. mcauliffe could be hurt by this and democrats could be hurt in the midterm if they pass these two bills and people forget the process and they do a much, much better job, like a 200% better job selling what is in these bills for people. as we just said in the last segment, a number you know well, a only one in four americans believe these two bills will help people like them.
if you can help heal your skin from within. with dupixent adults saw long-lasting, clearer skin and significantly less itch. don t use if you re allergic to dupixent. serious allergic reactions can occur including anaphylaxis, which is severe. tell your doctor about new or worsening eye problems, such as eye pain or vision changes, or a parasitic infection. if you take asthma medicines don t change or stop them without talking to your doctor. talk to your doctor about dupixent. why is the virginia governor s race so close? interprety micale and republican glen young micale was popular. biden mcauliffe. mcauliffe was popular. biden mcauliffe. tell us the story, brother