it s not a large-scale offensive, and i think we are all kind of waiting to see what they refer to as shaping operations. what that means is they are basically preparing the battlefield in advance of a larger scale ground movement of russian troops in the east. we know, according to a senior defense official, the russians continue to move more of their battalion tactical groups into ukraine, and just the size and scope here, that s about 82 of these battalion tactical groups inside ukraine. they are roughly 800 to 1,000 individuals, and you can do the math, we are talking upwards in the way of 80,000 russian troops that are there. the belief is that they will most if not all of them will focus on the donbas area and the southeastern part of ukraine. one of the things that is sort of a roadblock to this larger scale offensive is mariupol, which ali was just talking about. defense officials are watching