Or leveled off. now, the next three months you re going to see the inflation rate leveling off because they re dropping off low numbers 12 months ago, but once that s over and the three months leading up to the election, those rates that are being dropped off are going to be very low and you re going to see an initial surge. plus, the producer price indication is over 11%, which is the preceding stage of the consumer price indication, which means it s being pulled higher and higher. spot commodity prices are rising dramatically. i don t see any reason to expect inflation to stop or go down. i just don t see it. and it might even go a lot higher. if it does, this will be a really pivotal point for the fed in trying to bring it under control. all right. to be continued. arthur and betsy, thanks for joining us today. coming up, intense battles rock the mariupol steel plant with civilians still stuck inside. now officials say they have lost contact with the ukrainian fighters inside.
And jake, look at how that 41% stacks up among his modern era predecessors at this point in their presidency. joe biden is down here at the bottom of the heap with donald trump and jimmy carter, two one-term presidents where his approval rating is right now at this point in the presidency. not a place you want to be. cnn political director david chal wherein. thanks so much. let s dig into the federal reserve s interest rate hike today. we re joined by betsy stevenson. we also have with us former reagan and trump campaign adviser arthur laugher. betsy, let me start with you. as we said the half-point increase in the interest rate, the biggest in 22 years. what kind of loans will be affected by the fed s announcement today? well, when the fed raises rates by half a point, that s affecting directly the inner bank rate. that s not what americans care about. what they care about are car
Jake, to bring the inflation back down to where under reagan we had the tax cut, supply increases, tight money, and we got inflation conquered. that is not what this fed is doing yet. i mean, they have got to go a lot further to bring inflation down. and then they would really risk a bad economy, but that s the only way i know of bringing inflation down. betsy, the fed also signaled more interest rate increases will be coming soon, as arthur just suggested. as stocks closed sharply higher, but there has been a lot of turbulence in the markets lately. some economists say turbulence on wall street right now is a good thing. do you agree with that? well no arthur, hold on one second. let s have betsy and then you can weigh in. go ahead, betsy. i don t think we have the economy of the 1970s or 1980s. i think what the fed said very clearly today, the most important thing they said, not that they are open to raising rates further. they are. but what they said is they re not goi
Expectations become unanchored. that s the bright line. we are getting inflation back to 2%. and they will do what it takes to make sure that our long run inflation gets back to 2%. and i think right now, what we see is the market believes that. every once in a while, we see nervousness, but as long as they continue to believe that the fed has this under control, that inflation expectations are going back to 2%, then i think things are fine. in order how much do they need to raise rates? i think that depends on what we see happening in the next new months in the economy. i don t think it s clear right now exactly how much they need to raise rates. what is clear is they will need to raise rates somewhat. and that they re going to be doing that based on data and the information that they get. arthur? yeah, sorry for blurting in. i think they re going to have to raise rates a lot more. there s no sign yet that i can see that inflation has stopped
Loans, mortgage loans. we do see the fed raising rates, percolating through all those kinds of loans. it is worth noting that the market was already expecting this. we already saw some of that priced in. so i don t think we re going to see any big changes overnight. what we see is the fed delivered what they promised, and we re already seeing things like mortgage rates have started to tick up to reflect where the market expects the fed to be. arthur, there s a lot of concern the fed s interest rate hike will push the economy into a recession. do you share those concerns? what might that look like? i don t really share the concern. i don t think the real problem is pushing the economy into a recession. i think these rate hikes are way too small. i mean, if you take me back, if you will, to 1981, when we were running at inflation of 15%, 16%, 14%, paul volcker had raised rates to where the prime interest rate in the u.s. was at 21.5%, about five points above the inflation rate. we ar