[ bull bellowing ] e or it pulls up lame. The s p climbing 1. 64 , nasdaq falling 1. 85 . Wow. Whats been driving the run . Simple. Oil. Or more exactly the fading fears that declining oil would cause a credit crunch that could seize up the worlds banks. C and send the Global Economy back into recession. Will the strength continue . One way to find out. Lets go to the game plan. As an old ink stained newspaper person who covered homicide i dont want to bury the lead. The fed speaks wednesday. Im concerned that with oil coming back so hard the fed has lost the principal reason. Fed is afraid of wages coming back and even as its stagnant the oil rally is in fair face. Statement although i dont expect an actual rate hike. I wonder if we arent too bullish about the run in oil. I will have more on that later in the show. We should never forget we want equilibrium where the Oil Companies arent wiped out, taking the lenders with them, but the consumer is saving money all the the pump and could spend more at the retail or restaurant. Monday we have a wild one. 99 times out of a hundred i couldnt care less about this Company Called travel sent ers of america. This outfit has a handle on filling stations along the interstate highway system. Crucial to my thesis that oil may have bottomed is increased use of gasoline that no one is talking about. Who would know more about that than these guys. There was a surprising draw down of gasoline when we got wednesdays inventory numbers. Was it a fluke . I want to know. Maybe we can get answers on the we hear from 3d systems, a company we profiled as part of the rise and fall series. If you really want 3d technology, alcoa has the best. That stock remains one of my faves. Tuesday, filled with controversy. First well get the much awaited Quarterly Report from valeant and it would do wonders for the drug industry if they got their act together. When we discuss winning retailers we should have childrens place. I suspect it will deliver again. After the close tuesday we have results from oracle which is trading for less than 14 times next years earnings. Thats cheap historically. I lack a catalyst to get behind it. It hasnt been able to blow away the numbers like salesforce, its competitor, does. Could this be the one where the at these low prices, awfully hard to bet against them. I cannot wait for cbss Analyst Meeting on tuesday. Its a big one. Always good. The ceo is outspoken and will make you wish you own the stock. The trade of the week might be buying cbs into the analyst day. Les regales us with the projections, promise and talks about the masters of tradition unlike any other. March madness and thursday night football. Le one macro number might play a role el in the thinking even on the eve of the fed meeting. Thats the retail sales data. When i look back at the february market one of the numbers that allowed them to rebound was the january retail sales figures. They were stronger than expected. To clarify that we werent going into recession, if the retail bet tuesday could be a rough day as there will be many commentators chattering that the fed needs to tighten given the strength in retail. Keep in mind the rate hike chatter will grow louder after a strong number. Dont forget next week we have another super tuesday contests. Donald trump can take it off. He has a big night. Get ready for serious protectionist rhetoric and china bashing that could cause free traders more than a little agita. Besides the meeting thursday we have earnings from fed ex at the ep center of global commerce. This is one of the last stocks left in the world that can impact a complete days trading. Because of the being few sieve or township beat about world trade. P the stock is cheap but unless business is accelerating the rally from the bottom it had seems very vulnerable. Amazon developing the fleet but the analysts are risk averse on the Conference Call and they will try to build the model, not get the skinny we need. Here is another one we want to hear Better Things from. Williams sonoma. We profiled this one pondering what went wrong. How did it get eclipsed by tgx home goods . One of my Favorite Companies is expedia. Championed for ages called home away. We want to hear if they will with the multi billion dollar there are many reasons why expedia is under valued. Its the finest Online Travel organization but i hope it flushes out the true value of the latest acquisition. A month ago the tech world was from linkedin and tableau software. The twin declines impacted the stock of adobe. It has a terrific Cloud Business that was somehow lumped in with the two jokers. Om that was a big mistake. How big . Well find out when they report next thursday. I expect good things. If we get oil related selloff ahead of the quarter, pounce on adobe. Im worried about retail and i hope my fears arent confirmed by friday when we have the breakfast of earnings from tiffany. The company is a serial overpromiser and underdeliverer. When they lowered expectations to where even they can be beaten. That makes the stock an intriguing trade. They are a terrific retailor that came up with every excuse in the book. Thats what makes me optimistic about this quarter. This lower guide dance. If tiffany fails this time, you know what i will do . Im going to break out the wall of shame. Lets not lose sight of the prize. The bottom line is the fed is all anybody will be talking about. If the fed does nothing well have the fifth good week in a row. Talking about rate hikes or gives us one, be prepared for a huge repeel of this amazing rally. I say we take calls. Lets go to justin in new york. Justin. Caller whats up, jim . Big booyah. Ha im a long time holder of expedia for five years. Le lucky enough to get trip adviser out of it. I want your opinion. Should i hold on for the long term, buy more or sell both stocks . On i think expedia is a winner. The stock has run up in anticipation of the Analyst Meeting. G. If it sells off you have to pick some up. Ck [ buy, buy, buy ] i like expedia and the ed in michigan. Ed. Caller jim, thanks for taking my call. Of course. Caller you talked about accidental high yielderers and the building might get caught. Dividend gets tough. Is it okay to buy a stock like potash . No, no, no. Its a commodity. The ag business isnt strong. I dont want you to do that. I never like to reach for yield. Well, no. Periodically its worth it. I dont want you to do it. Ixnay on that one. The fed is back on the front burner. Depending what it does next week could be another champion or very, very bad. On mad tonight ulta faced an ugly selloff a month ago. Last nights earnings were a thing of beauty. Where should you stand with the stock . Im investigating. That wasnt the only stock winning the season. Paid off right into the reports. And then nr g energy fell 56 in 2015. Up big today. Has the utility regained energy . Im taking a look at the rise and then the fall. So why dont you stick with cramer . Announcer dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer, madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Miss something . My son and i used to watch the red carpet shows on tv now, im walking them. Life is unpredictable because i have used head and shoulders for 20 years. Used regularly, it removesr up to 100 of flakes live flake free for life r is that ice cream . T no, its, uh, breyers gelato indulgences. P you really wouldnt like it. Its got caramel and crunchy stuff. I like caramel and crunchy stuff. Breyers gelato indulgences. P how could the stock market have been so wrong about ulta salon, the nations largest beauty retailer that roared higher today, up 17 . Hallelujah after reporting a fabulous quarter. I have been a believer in it for ages but a month ago there was a selloff at ulta that took the stock from 181 down to 152 dollars in a matter of days and february 19. How could people have gotten so bearish practically overnight on a company thats clearly doing incredibly well . Initially ulta got slammed as part of a sell off in virtually every high growth stock under the sun. In february it was blind sided by an ominous report from the short selling Research Firm which classified the stock as a strong sell. [ sell, sell, sell ] with an 88 price target. Something that led you to think it would be a gigantic downdraft in the name. What was behind the sell call and does it hold water after the tremendous numbers we got last night from ulta. Lets see. Let me give you background. Well dig deeper into what happened. For those of you who dont know, one of the hottest growth been like that for years. In part by create ing an amazing Shopping Experience that cant beat amazon because they have beauty salons built into the stores along with the retail side of things and they are putting up stores on top of 874 locations they have already across 48 states. Despite everything ulta has going for it, the stock was derailed by the broader selloff in february as well as by commentary by estee lauder about a promotional holle day season. Essential it was a garden variety pullback where investors were panicked and sold off the winners like ultra. They were raising cash. People wanted to take the money and run. After the stock started rebounding a little bit, preshens Point Research group which i had never heard of brutal 81pages on ulta salon with the really ominous, over the top cover titled high growth retail, its great until its not. [ house of pain ] although this report is verbose and seems full of purposefully complicated detail that almost seems designed to fill up space in 81 pages, yeah, the actual argument they made against ulta is simple. It boils down to three points. One, ultas strategy of aggressively growing has brought the company to a point of saturation. In other words, these bears believe there is no room room for growth. Ulta said the long term goal is 874 stores but the report says there was an independent store base and concluded that new locations are being opened closer and closer to each other with more stores in less dense and lower income areas. The combination of these factors led the report to conclude that ulta will experience a dramatic erosion in same store sales growth which is the all important key metric in the Retail Business as we taught you. They predicted cannibalization like they said ulta was the donner party waiting to happen. The second part of the short thesis, they believed ultas management arbitrarily increased the store count guidance from 1,000 to 1200 in june of 2012 to create the illusion of a long runway. They allege ulta did it to pump up the stock before dutching it if the real ceiling is 1,000 stores then ulta is closer to saturating the market than wed like to think. Finally the report said wall street is too focused on the headline same store Sales Numbers which they believe masked two crucial things. The fact that traffic growth is outpacing average ticket growth which makes them think ulta is bringing in customers by discounting the merchandise and second they point out ulta includes ecommerce in same store sales figures they claim creates an illusory effect. Put it together and you have one big fat nasty hit piece against ulta salon. It was a first class hatchet job. But is it true . Let me go over each item. Has ultale reached the point of saturation . The answer is no way. If this were happening wed notice it in the numbers. Generally when a retailler hits saturation its gradual and you the stores. Thats not the case here. Ulta has been adding a hundred new stores annually for years now and in fact the same store sales and the retail ones not including online have been accelerating up 6. 1 in 2013, 8 in 2014 and 10 last year not to mention the 10. 4 number when they shot the lights out last night. If anything, thats a sign of too few stores, not too many. Beyond the numbers i think this argument misunderstands ultas business. Particularly of the salons which bring people in and cause them to spend a lot more money than the typical customer. On last nights Conference Call, fabulous ceo mary dillon said the customers who came in for the salon spend two and a half times as much money as the nonsalon customers. You can only process so many there could be room for ulta to add new locations than the guys seem to believe. The fact is this is one of the few retailers that cant beat amazon where the new stores are proven to do more good than harm to other locations. Closer stores make it more likely you can see a specialist if your regular person is full. What about that ultas same store sales are about to fall off a cliff . Longterm its probably not unreasonable to expect the company wont be able to i mean, to keep generating these double digit comps is difficult. I wont be surprised if the numbers desell rate eventually. But lately they have been accelerating. Couldnt last nights 12. 5 overall same store sales growth, the best numbers in our retail universe we follow in cramerica. If these short sellers are waiting for a tipping point, i say dont hold your breath. Ultas sales growth in 2016 and the ceo has a long, long track record of underpromising and overdelivering. Upod. As for the idea that the same store sales are misleading, thats bogus. This is a Family Friendly show or i would use a different word. They saw ecommerce numbers with these numbers as well but ulta is one of the few rae retailers with a successful strategy. Its a positive, not a negative. However the ultimate reputation of the bear thesis came last night when ulta did shoot the lights out with a fabulous top and bottom line beat coupled with strong guidance. Honestly, this was gettable if you watched the show and listened to what ultas ceo has had to say when shes been on the show. Shes been fabulous. Here is the bottom line. Short sellers are just as prone to wishfulle thinking as the job on ulta salon last month was the ultimate in bearish wishful thinking. The truth is ulta is doing amazingly well f. You listen to the bears you missed a huge move in the stock. In fact, you have been stampeded by the bulls. And i think ulta is not done the tram trampling. There is so much mad money ahead. Wonder whats a stock pickers paradise . I have six plays that really paid off this earnings season. Then the rise and fall in Energy Prices may have left you with a case of whiplash. How is the up and down action impacting companies in the space . Im eye, nrg energy and the move in oil can be traced back to one largele call. Was it on your radar screen . It was on ours. Lets find out. I suggest you stick with cramer uh, hello geico . Yeah, i was just talking about your emergency Roadside Service and how its available 24 7 and then our car overheated. Can you send a tow truck please . Uh, the location . Youre not going to believe this but its um. Its in a tree. I wish i was joking, mate, but its literally stuck in a tree. car horn honking a chainsaw . No, no, all we really need is a tow truck. Day or night, geicos emergency Roadside Service is there for you. Ive been on my feel all day. Im bushed yea me too. Excuse me. Coming through ride the gel wave of comfort with dr. Scholls massaging gel insoles. Theyre proven to give you comfort. Which helps you feel more energized. All day long. I want what he has. Pet moments are beautiful, unless you have allergies. Then your eyes may see it differently. Only flonase is approved to relieve both your itchy,z watery eyes and congestion. No other nasal allergy spray can say that. Incomplete. Let your eyes decide. Flonase changes everything. Turn you into someone new. One hair color wants to help you keep on being you. Nicen easy. Naturallooking color. That even in sunlight, doesnt look like hair color. It just looks like you. V nicen easy colorv now that earnings season is behind us, i think it is worth taking a look back at what we have learned during the reporting period and what really strikes me is that we have seen an incredible range of results from the retailers in restaurants. Quarters to extremely impressive ones. At least when it comes to retail and restaurants this has become a true stock pickers market. Tonight i want to highlight some of the winners and we all know the losers. Show you where the opportunities can be found. Lets start with retail. Real shockers here. Jcpenney. Home depot is not a shocker. And Urban Outfitters reported much stronger than expected quarters than anyone anticipated. [ applause ] with jcpenney you had a case where the expectations had gotten way too low albeit for a good reason. The company had negative earnings for eight quarters in a row. While the consensus called for them to make money, the analysts didnt predict the massive up tick in earnings the company delivered. A gigantic 16 cent earnings beat off a 23cent basis. Thats amazing. Thats why the stock jumped 14 points since that day and the stock has not looked back. It was that impressive. This quarter was a declaration that jcpenneys turn around is for real. Marvin ellison. Under his remarkable leadership jcpenney is taking back market share from other Department Stores thanks in part to major initiatives in categories like footwear, home goods and a Smart Partnership they have with sephora. I think the turn will continue but maybe the easy money has been made. Ellison, you have to come on the show. You did a great job. Next, home depot blew away the numbers in late february. Seven cent earnings beat. Higher than expected revenues. Terrific same store sales. Excellent fouryear guidance. The stock barely budged in response, largely because home depot, i mean, they have such a long track record of delivering great numbers. One more earnings beat was a yawner. Thats ridiculous if you ask me but thats what happened. The company is taking share and taking names. Some were actually upset that indicate that 2016 would be back loaded i trust in home depots ability to underpromise and overdeliver. The stock has a lot more room to run. Im about to buy plants for spring planting there. How about Urban Outfitters which delivered an astonishing quarter earlier this week. No one expected this. After spending ages lost in the wilderness, urban has gotten its groove back. 2015 was a difficult year for them. They learned their lessons and were able to pivot away from a