Defeats for the traditional establishment parties. The socialists and the conservatives. What does the vote so far and the vote to come really mean for france and the rest of europe . Two discuss those questions, im joined by three seasoned analysts and observers. Birke says france is at a crossroads either a return to nationalism or ever closer European Union. Is with us, too. He argues that in todays europe, it is either globalism or nationalism, openness or a closed shop, economic and social intolerance and state control. He says frances decision will make or break new europe. And a warm welcome to geraldine says the worrying political instability in france will not be swept away if macron wins. There will still be an urgent need for change in french politics. Once again, welcome to group all. You join in the collective sigh of relief i just described after the result was announced . Full relief, but partly, i was relieved because, was the mostn proeuropean of all the candidates, so it was a relief he made it into the last round, but it you look at all the votes , you u get about 2 5 of the french population who voted for a frexit if you want to take it literally. I think the battle is not yet one. One is not yet dont won, andis not yet don i will not exclude Marine Le Pen winning in may. Many people will not make a bloc like in 2002. When Marine Le Pens father was in the election. There are a lot of undecided people still and a lot of lefties who will not go to vote and a lot of abstentions, so participation will be decisive it. Acron really makes peter geraldine, you have been nodding. Geraldine we have teedo problems the first is teedo extremist two parties. Not onlyties are against europe. I would say it is probably not the reason why they were elected in france. They voted for these parties because of unemploymentt, especially among the young people. We have 25 unemployment among young people. This is more the reason why these parties were elected on and on veryes dangerous economic programs, and i think i am more worried about Marine Le Pen planning these economic programs than on the french voting for or against the European Union when she will organize the referendum as she promised to do. Peter tell me more about the move in france at this juncture. Geraldine it is very distressing because one of the candidates, melenchon, the far won almostate, who 20 of the vote refused to give any indication if voters should vote for Marine Le Pen or not. Which means probably most of ,hese electors will vote white which means they will abstain. Part of them will also vote for Marine Le Pen because part of the electorate is s actually the same. Burkhard they both want to return to 60 as the age of retirement. Both want to strengthen the purchasing power of the pension ears, of the small income people. For thet to cut taxes small people. You have eight or nine points on the program. All the economical and social questions that coincide. Melenchon and even if was never very clear on it, i think he would have his discourse is either the eu changes or we leave the eu. As window, germany would never accept the rules of a far left party, so he would have probably ended up leaving the eu so the program in this sense would be the same. It is a volatile mix. We have already heard that perhaps Marine Le Pen could emerge the victor in the second round of voting. Do you buy into that . Geraldine theoretically, no. The social party, which only plus, you 6 now, have the conservative party at with theould macron voters, we already reach more than 50 , and im pretty sure the conservative party voters will not vote for Marine Le Pen. Alan i disagree. There are studies that say 1 3 of the electorate of voters for Francois Fillon will vote for Marine Le Pen. There talking about conservative catholic populations in france whose values are much closer to this patriotism and nationalism of Marine Le Pen than to this liberalism, the gay marriage and all of this done all of this of macron. Peter what do you say can le pen crack it . Face of it, she cannot, but even if she did, even if she were to become president , we have seen in the United States donald trump become totally impotent. The american deep state is leading him to recant on almost all the issues peter checks and balances. Alan it works. The institutions have been there a long time. Or france, the problem if macron wins, you will have people out in the streets fighting him to then theyll all the way, but if le pen one, the same thing only worse fighting him tooth and nail all the way. Peter you said at the beginning of the show that this election could make or break europe, it will, and now you are saying reason will prevail, as it always does. Alan im not saying reason will prevail. I do not think that a le pen madame le pen will succeed in taking france out of europe, for instance. I do think it would mean that france would simply fall out of european politics unless the necessary reform of europe, for which we need france, would not happen, and that would lead to this, that, and the other. You got me there, havent you . Geraldine factories who hire former foreign employees, tax the import of foreign products it would be a catastrophe. Teedo mp they only have two mp class in the parliament. This is the only chance if she is elected. Does not mean she will have full power because she will not have the full support of the really asks for a referendum on europe you said 70 of the french were still in favor. I sincerely doubt this, and i recall we had in 2005 this referendum on the european constitution, which was rejected by a majority. I doubt that the french population is really going to vote for remain in the eu. Geraldine i think they will. It is a treaty. It is different. If you ask french people if they want to leave the eu, is such a radical change anything is it is likeut shooting yourself in the foot. Peter exactly. Lots of uncertainty. One thing that is for sure is the french have a real choice in the second round of voting on may 7. Lets have a look. Macron once more european integration including a common economic and social policy. France to leave the eu and start using the frank again. Macron says globalization offers new opportunities and promises to retrain workers for it. Le pen sees globalization as a threat and says that french people, not immigrants, should have the first crack at jobs. Macron wants to open france toto thwoworld. Le pen wants to close it off. Both candididates consider themselves patriots. In teedo weeks, i want to become your president. In two weeks, i want to become your president. The president of all of france, the president of threat ofagainst the nationalists. I call on all sincere patriots, wherever they may be from, however they may have voted in the first round, to join me. Versus l le pen which sort of patriotism will french . Oters choose peter both claiming to be the patriot, the representative of the true french people. Who is the true patriot . Prove that theto word patriotism has become totally empty. This is interesting because it is not about who is a patriot. It is about nationalist investors, globalization. The question is about who can deliver on promises. I think it should become obvious observing the world that it is no longer possible to put up trade barriers, to have a nationalist trade, immigration and so on policy in the globalized world as today. You can do it five years, 10 years, but then you will fall on your face. You can see it all over the world where people have put up barriers. This is not about being patriotic or not being patriotic. It is about delivering what the people want, and the problem, of course, with macron is the isng i said about le pen true of him, too. When he starts to try to reform france in the very mild way mr. Schroeder reformed germany 10 or 15 years ago, he will run up against the same barriers sarkozy had, that anyone has ever had, that he himself had when he was minister of the economy in france. The french do not want to reform. You will have the students out on the street, the pensioners out on the street, workers out on the street, and every reformer in france has run up sonnst this sort of surly nous without us. Terrible. This is why micron wants to break. The last government was centerleft, and then you have the ultraleft for testing in the streets and the right who was protesting. He wants to form, actually, a Great Coalition like we had in germany and have all the reformers of both sides of the spectrum joined him, and if he succeeds, i think it is really to shape oft chance its economy and reform not only its economy but also its institutions. Like it or not, the Front National has been the Strongest Party of the Regional Elections and the European Elections with almost 29 of the vote of the European Election and has only teedo representatives out of 577 at the assembly national, the parliament. Part ofhe population in france not represented on the national level. Micron in manual Emmanuel Macron the person who can turn it around, who can unite the country . Elite background, how could he be the person who turns the country around . Hes talking to the elites, to the middle class. Not be voted by the working class, definitely not, but he comes from the elite, of course, but he wants to change the system, the system of right and left. I think he is the only one who could more or less do it. Just think, if you had fillon as the conservative, his program was even more radical, so we had a social liberal who is having a libeberal policy but with a socl touch. I think the french must see that there is no alternative to reform. Theres too much red tape,. Ureaucracy you need to break this, and once he takes all these unpopular decisions at the beginning of his mandate, he might succeed. And he needs a parliamentary majority. Peter Emmanuel Macron is perhaps frances last chance. I read today an article that seemed to suggest quite possibly only around maybe 30 of french voters actually know what he stands for. Do you know what he stands for . Geraldine nobody really knows what he stands for. Its quite unclear. He does not have a very clear program, and he is not very popular. I have more of a feeling people voted for him because he is the , but peopleoption dont trust him so much because he does not have any experience, so it is a risk. ,mmanuel macron is a total risk but i think what he is offering is this consensus. He would like to have a consensus like in germany to bring back stability in politics, but it is going to be in the legislative because his party, which is only one year old, will never gain en marche, or forward. Geraldine yes. Politics arefrench very polemic, so it will be a fight, and i really do not know how he will apply this liberal social program. Computer we do not know what he will do inside france. Do we know what his vision of europe is . This discussion is about the French Elections and their impact on europe. He talks about an economic union, which i think is interesting. , earsme anyone says that perk up in berlin. Pay. Eans we and its true. The fact is the euro will indeed collapse if there is not Something Like an economic governance, a european governance of the euro area, and it also means germany will have eurobonds,s like guaranteeing banks and so on. That is the question, if after the 2017 election, merkel can ram that down the germans throat because we do not want to do that, but we will have to if. E do not back up macron then he will fail, and as you say, it is the less chance, nunnelee for france, but for europe, will have been completely thrown away. I agree burkhard i agree. He was the most proeuropean of the 11, but he is saying you need to do exports. French people feel under the mandate of mrs. Merkel. Geraldine not only france. At eye level with germany, they were the engine of this europe, and they do not feel at the same level anymore. This fruststration led also to. His vote no doubt about that. So germany needs to correct its approach to france to take more into consideration. Anyway, with a brexit, the shift is toward the south and france is the bridge to all the southern mediterranean rim of the European Union and definitely under control of the eurozone, the whole policy will dramatically change because germany will not have any blocking majority anymore with the northern countries. Learnedne thing we have in this discussion so far is that france is a country seemingly in a permanent state of crisis. Lets have a little bit of a closer look at that crisis. Terrorism a state of emergency has been in place in france 16 over 2015 attacks. Troops and s Security Forces are on alert around d the clock. Last thursday, three days befofe the election, a gunman shot and killed a Police Officer in paris and wounded teedo others wounded two others. Gridlock reforms and welfare, social security, and tax policy are fiercely opposed by labor unions. Huge crowds took to the streets labortest proposed reforms, despite the countrys 10 unemployment rate. Failed politicians. For years, france has been governed either by the conservatives or the socialists, but the political elite have alienated average voters by not keeping their promises and by getting involved in various corruption candles. This time around, the conservatives and socialists taken together manage only ababt 25 of the vote. Can frances political system still be saved . Big question. E can it be saved domestically, internationally . I like to pick up on where we were before we had that report. What do the french see when they look across the rhine and see germany . Do they see an ally or a threat . Geraldine i reassure you they dont see hitlers anymore hitler anymore. Merkel is very popular in france. There had been a poll maybe teed up, three years ago, where the french said if they could choose, they would prefer to have merkel as president and how e, than anyn holland other politician in france. Also in the media a lot of about germany trying to why this exit of germany is so complete. On the other hand, there is also tried tong that merkel dominate europe, which was it that the case during the refugee , by not consulting european partners, which would underhave happened records, for example, so there is another kind of relationship with merkel with her european partners. I think this is something that she tries to change because she is also part of she has a risensibility also in the of these antieuropean movements. So this is i dont know if this answers your question, but this is more or less the ambiguous relationship between france and germany. I would say most of the working job giver peter employers. Geraldine employers are of course hoping macron will do reforms like schroeder did, which are very useful. Probably the first supporters of macron are the employers. Peter who can win this election, and will strengthen or weaken europe . Burkhard macron will win if he advice anddines support him all the way. Peter you think le pen has not got a chance . A chance. Has that would be a disaster. Im famously using the p word, but remember that le pen is an ally of vladimir putin, who wants to destroy the European Union, nato, and the western alliance, so lets really hope she does not get it. Peter i can hear the music coming up, so we have to leave it there. Thank you very much for joining me today. I hope we give you plenty of thoughts between French Election round one and round teedo. And round to. If we have not given you enough thought, come back next week. This has been quadriga goodbye. This week global 3000 headss to togo, home to the shy hippppopotamuses. Theyre undeder threat, but conservationists are trying to protect them. Wewe go to the gambia. For many here, the future looks bleak. We talk to one young man desperate to leave. But first we go to russia. Where a courageous few are campaigning against putins government, despite the threat of harsh punishment. What defines todays russia . A president with autocratic tendencies, a population afraid to speak out. Criticising the kremlin can have
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