promise was a lie. powerful sanctions will go into effect if the regime continues its nuclear aspirations it will have bigger problems than it has ever had before. oh we begin the day confirming what much of the world had been expecting what europe has been trying to prevent us president from today announce the u.s. is withdrawing from the iran nuclear deal trump said that he will reinstate sanctions against iran and add the highest of economic sanctions as well. blasted the obama administration for signing a deal that he described as rotten to the core and he said that the u.s. will not be held hostage to nuclear blackmail now his decision follows through on a campaign promise that he made to voters and it flies in the face of. america's european allies for weeks now leaders including the french president and the german chancellor have been lobbying mr trump to stick with the deal even if it means trying to negotiate renegotiate some of its terms or tehran has been clear that there will be no new negotiations adding that any violation of the agreement by washington would kill the deal there have also been warnings that the end of the agreement would trigger an immediate resumption of iran's nuclear weapons research and that is where we have arrived on this tuesday may we have complete coverage of the united states reneging on a deal that it crafted with its own friends and foes alike here is how the u.s. president announced his decision just a few hours ago. over the past few months we have engaged extensively with our allies and partners around the world including france germany and the united kingdom we have also consulted with our friends from across the middle east we are unified in our understanding of the threat and our conviction that iran must never acquire a nuclear weapon after these consultations it is clear to me that we cannot prevent an iranian nuclear bomb under the decaying and rotten structure of the current agreement the iran deal is defective at its core if we do nothing we know exactly what will happen in just a short period of time the world's leading state sponsor of terror will be on the cusp of acquiring the world's most dangerous weapons. therefore i am announcing today that the united states will withdraw from the iran nuclear deal oh that was us president dilma drum and to unpack this huge story today i'm joined by alex the tongan from the middle east institute and myles palmer senior fellow at the james martin center for nonproliferation studies to both of you gentlemen welcome to the day mr palmer start with you trump says that if the nuclear deal were to continue in its current form that the consequence would be that iran would have nuclear weapons in a relatively short time he says that he has to withdraw because the deal would allow iran to quickly resume its development of nuclear weapons thus creating an arms race in the middle east is he telling the truth well i guess part of it depends on what you consider a short time the central limits on the deal. expired ten to fifteen years after the implementation of deal which means twenty twenty five and twenty thirty so you know he's essentially trading off and not dealing with this problem for seven years for dealing with it now i mean but is it true though that this argument that he's making that his moves today will ensure that that there is nonproliferation that he is preventing an arms race thus preventing the possibility of military conflict in the region is that is that watch it can it stand. well i don't think that it stands right now and i don't think this is really about the nuclear part of iran's foreign policy in the nuclear program right now is very well contained the international atomic energy agency has certifying that all the time in regular reports there's more inspection on iran than any other country in the world historically. we've gotten monitoring of all the key facilities twenty four hours a day we've got inspectors crawling all over the country and access to facilities and what you're going to get probably the first reaction that the iranians will do to this is to cut back some of that access so not only will we not have you know there will there's no more chance that they'll be. a nuclear program now i mean to be more chance of a nuclear program soon than there was now but you also have less chance of knowing about it because we won't have inspectors there mr talk a little me ask you about iran you know we've been hearing in the weeks leading up to this decision iran has said that any violation by the united states would kill the deal tonight iranian president rouhani would on television and said that iran wants to stay in the deal so how do you explain this seems like you know two sizes it two sides of the same coing. you know the iranian regime really never seriously meant to walk away from this nuclear agreement. and we've heard this not just from president rouhani but from former suggestions or even others as long as the deal delivers for them they'll stick to the deal and that is true now or have few hours after the president trying to the united states out of this agreement the remains are waiting to see simply what the europeans will do they have russia and china on side you have no fears as far as i could tell in tehran that they'll be a shift in position in moscow and beijing the russians the chinese are going to stay with this deal the question is will the europeans do it for the arabian regime the most important thing is will they pay economic consequences are. as a result of all we heard from the u.s. president today will there be any chance for resumption of the more severe sanctions that doesn't even have an have to happen at the u.n. security council level but can ignite it states convince enough countries out there for example to stop buying uranium oil if that happens then iran will probably have a very tough time trying to justify it to the self maybe even to its own people why do you should stick to an agreement where deer deliberate their part of the bargain and nobody else is so i think that's that's remains to be seen going forward and i think europe is ok europe is key i want to listen to what the reaction we heard from tonight from europe was the first reaction we got let's take a listen here to federica marguerite the european union will remain committed to continue our pool and effective implementation of the nuclear fuel we fully trust the work the competence and the autonomy of the international atomic energy agency that has published reports certify that iran has fully comply with its commitments . ok so we've got the e.u. saying we want things to stay as it is mr fatah go but what happens if the u.s. imposes these highest of economic sanctions which trump promised tonight he can basically punish and there is the veiled threat there any country that does business with iran iran does iran have any recourse they are i mean europe cannot pick up the slack if the u.s. cuts off all financial sources for tehran. you know this is it goes back to what we heard just earlier and i totally agree with that sentiment today's speech was not about what are we going to be able to have a better new clear agreement coming forward in the next few weeks unless that's really not intentions behind it out and spent what president truong and his key advisers some of whom include very hawkish voices on the question ironically had a national security council john bolton and you say your state might be a these are heartened anti iran voices didn't stumble into this issue yesterday in ways that president trump that because it was a campaign promise they have been at this for decades they don't want to see a syrian regime in place and now if you're sitting in europe what does that tell you that tells you this is not really about a nuclear agreement this is about an american administration i want to change i what do europeans need to do is to convince themselves do they trust president trump as a good plan to bring about regime change doubt will be relatively manageable when you would you know keep perhaps buy into the idea of a democratic iran without the bill is without a new program which those are all big ifs and i'm not sure president trump has so far been convincing in his sixteen months in office that he actually has a strategic blueprint you know like because we have been we've been here before the you had an issue for the united states is not a new issues being that these two countries have been at loggerheads since one thousand nine hundred seventy nine that's right he's not the first president was that deal with it well he did speak to the iranian people this evening in his announcement and it felt like there was a kind of a subtle message there too to the iranian people to rise up is he betting on that result regime change from within and he said is he betting on today's announcement to be the catalyst for that change. you know i think someone like john cole would have told him and jumble mills around very well and very close to some iranian opposition groups and just use this week a we heard rudy giuliani another trump loyalist tell an opposition crowd here in washington d.c. that forget about a nuclear free mean look forward to regime change into iraq that's the thinking in the white house that's at the in the in a circle of the truck presidency at beza seventy four the question is can they convince anybody else out there in the world to come along on that ride for regime change they are right if you look at this which in iran things are not working out well but if we were any regime there is grievances on a whole host of levels the reigning regime if you had a free vote tomorrow in iran will be voted out probably would eighty percent of the people want it wanted out but that's a different story than say the united states today two thousand eight hundred this president can facilitate tip the balance that's the big gamble that this president has embarked on he thinks he can be day to muscular foreign policy guy from washington who can in bold in the really people to sort of bring down the dictators you know right and as i said that's a big it's a big and maybe maybe he is in bold and in those thoughts by what he sees happening in north korea and mr prosper if i want you to take a listen to what mr trump said today about the korean peninsula think of us in fact at this very moment secretary pompei o is on his way to north career in preparation for my upcoming meeting with kim jong un plans are being made relationships are building hopefully a deal will happen and with the help of china south korea and japan a future of great prosperity and security can be achieved for everyone. so mr probert is the us president is he betting that his rocket man approach is also going to work with the movies in tehran well you're presuming that his rocket man approach is working with kim jong loon i don't like this is the case i mean proof is going to be in the putting ok obviously he thinks that but. you know all we know now is that he may have a meeting with him we have no idea of the substantive outcome and i would bet against one. in terms of he's clearly someone who's willing to take risks in this arena more risks than president obama was i think your previous guest some summarize of well he's taking a risk that he can pull the lifeline out from this regime and he thinks that lifeline is a nuclear deal. it's not really clear that that's the case most of the benefits from the nuclear deal. especially the financial ones were stacked up front the iranians are already pocketed them what does can do is introduce more uncertainty into potential european and other investments in iran and that may have some effect in terms of the regime but the chinese and others may bail them out so i think there is certainly a gamble that the strategy will work very briefly mr probert are you saying then that this decision by the u.s. president is going to send the europeans with the iranians into the arms of the chinese and the russians. no i'm saying that chinese for instance are going to you know iran's oil if it's not going to be sold or sold less to some other countries the chinese are more than able to pick up the slack and in fact iran may be able to actually make more money because we're in a title oil market and any price rise they may actually you know they may self-less of it but may actually make more money at the time i think with the iranians are trying to do. in response is to pressure the europeans essentially to say you stick with this deal or we're going to go to the chinese and the russians and you're going to cut out of our market you know we definitely will see what happens over the next weeks and months miles pumper senior fellow at the james martin center for nonproliferation studies and alex the tonka from the middle east institute both of you gentleman thank you for your insights tonight on the day like you were germany was there from the start of the negotiations that resulted in the twenty fifteen nuclear deal with iran over the past few months berlin joined with other european countries in a last ditch effort to persuade trump to at least to salvage the agreement they say that even that would is flawed the deal has largely kept iran in check and they warn that re imposing sanctions could read night a nuclear arms race. back in two thousand and fifteen there was relief and price throughout germany at the successful negotiation of the iran nuclear deal. is that . we have concluded an agreement that will make the middle east and the world safer . form a german foreign minister frank. was one of the main architects of the deal. one day before trump's decision on the agreement current german foreign minister and his french counterpart explained why europeans want to save it. we're afraid that a failure escalates the situation. right back where we were before two thousand and thirteen and. no one has an interest in that. german chancellor angela merkel and other leaders have tried to change trump's mind she argues that the nuclear deal is crucial for the security of her own country and others around the world. i reiterate that the hold of the region as. the us maybe thousands of kilometers away from iran syria. syria and iran are countries that are right. no one thinks the deal is perfect but european leaders argue that it's better than nothing if iran is to be prevented from developing nuclear weapons and cancelling the agreement would split the west down the middle. it's our job as europeans and as signatories to try everything we can to keep it you know together with the with the chinese and the russia's this is one of the side effects of what trump is doing pushing this to the arms of the chinese and the russians trumps decision will also have economic implications for both iran and germany. but they pale in comparison with the fears that if the deal is scrapped it could cause a nuclear arms race in the middle east. our it's our correspondent time young is here the big table to help me a fact this story plus the iran expert on how about high he joins us from our studios in bonn to both of you gentleman good evening simon the new u.s. ambassador to germany richard grinnell he posted a tweet just minutes after the announcement from u.s. president troubles take a look at that he tweeted as the trump said u.s. sanctions will target critical sectors of iran's economy german companies doing business in iran should wind down operations immediately. trump's national security advisor mr bolton also said european companies will have months to exit iran has trump just placed the u.s. on a collision course with europe well i think definitely that's the way these this story has been going the europeans are massively invested in this iran deal as you've seen chancellor merkel president mccraw the british foreign secretary boris johnson they've all being in washington within the last couple of weeks trying to you know get down on their knees and persuade the president changes mind their work slightly less well known perhaps there was a there was a letter signed by five hundred european parliamentarians to donald trump as well so it's a broad based campaign it seems to have had absolutely no effect whatsoever and you know canceling this deal i think damages the transatlantic alliance and that of course is the has been the coolest done of geopolitics of all your sins in the post second world war period i don't want to overstate the case this this really is very damaging to trust donald trump says he's a man who keeps his promises but here we see the united states pulling out of a deal that is still signed up to at the moment and the question will be you know how europe can react but if you're talking about confrontation the noises coming from europe are saying you know we're looking at this with regret and concerned with very worried and we're sticking to the deal whether sticking to the deal but the message that was implied tonight from the u.s. president is that economic sanctions could be used against countries that do not cease doing business with iran now what this miracle do with trump uses them threat against germany. well i don't know that it's about what medical condition of course doesn't. make the the decisions that companies give any that's amazing that should be the first chance or to have to deal with with the threat of punishment from a u.s. president and financial punishment yeah yeah well it's not exactly clear what steps the united states is going to take and there's a period of. a few months perhaps until these things really come in but what we worried about here what we're looking at is these concepts are secondary sanctions as i companies that want to do any kind of business in the united states better watch out if they've got any links to iran because they're you know donald trump interprets that as supporting iran and putting it supporting the terrorizing as he puts it so in terms of what the europeans can do well they're going to fight back i i should point out you know there's been a joint statement now and the germans the french and the british the seedling which have said they're sticking with the deal and they said that includes with the economic benefits for the iranian people that flow from the deal yeah so that does sound very much like they're ignoring donald trump on this point and they're going to do battle with him i mean that's a good point too so i mean for adnan adnan you know we been counting getting mixed signals though from tehran about this situation we heard that president rouhani tonight that he wants to stay in the day or but in the last couple of weeks we've heard a position that sounds a lot different so how do we make sense of that. i guess you have both both approaches at the one hand on the one hand the government line has always been that we remain committed if the remaining parties of the agreement manage to secure our dividends at the same time i think it is important for iran to send signals that clearly show that there will be costs if this change if this agreement is not safeguarded and these costs would be that iran resumes its nuclear program that even the possibility of iran withdrawing from the n.p.t. i think they're they're trying both approaches here. i want to talk about money we know that the iranian president he sold this two thousand and fifteen nuclear deal to the powers that be in tehran by saying that this would lift the scourge of economic sanctions and it would bring economic you know vital was asian to the country that has not happened and then now if we get new sanctions more sanctions against iran is this going to be the beginning of the end of rouhani. i think you can imagine if you're the president and you have three remaining years in office you can opt for. basically remaining on the path that you have been walking on or and have a hard time for the remaining three years or you simply switch and you go hard line and you start an anti western poster not necessarily anti western but more east leaning than before so rouhani will obviously also think about his own political survival about the survival of his government and think about how to steer this country in this crisis that is now created by the u.s. administration and do you think rouhani is going to become more anti u.s. and do you think he is afraid of attempts from within the country at regime change because of what trump is designed. i really believe that what trump has done and the trump poster of the past one and a half years has done more to anti americanism in iran than the islamic republic has been able to do in the past thirty nine years the sentiments among the iranians has been very very strong and even tonight there were a lot of house tacks i mean that's just the twitter sphere but still the sentiments against the u.s. are very strong and i think rouhani will want to bank on that and will try to seize that opportunity to position himself as someone to on the one who on the one hand can champion outreach and diplomacy but when need to be can also turn against a hostile us government and about twenty seconds i have to ask is there are reports tonight that the israelis are expecting an imminent attack from iran syria how do you see that i mean is iran going to attack israel because of what trump decided today. i don't think that that that that's going to happen that there might be some threatening signals in the in the sense of deterrence but i don't see that escalating so quickly all right it's about to buy in our studios in bonn germany and simon young here at the big table to both of you gentlemen thank you very much the day is nearly done but as ever the conversation continues online to find us on twitter 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