The presence, that made it favorable instead of cooperating . Why do they go down this path . Be a legitimate backward areas, no one bothered to push industry. By want to give this as a statistic. I have people working for me, 6600 people from this area. I never had a problem, 15 years, these people have an income back to the families, they are ok but if you do not have income or means of livelihood, anybody with their it is the Haqqani Group for anyone else, that is what they do. They live on their own. You have got to basically give them a means of value and that is an agreement and number 2 is the sense of justice. They have the department of justice and the sense of justice and particularly the topic, quite happy about it and the Supreme Court and to the high court and the Supreme Court. You have got to bring it down. The most important point, actually started with the last government, does not have a say in the government. The system persists and unless you bring down democracy down to the thing and allows stakeholders to have decisionsmaking at low levels, to displace everybody deciding the best way to use the money and what is the Justice System doing . That is a legitimate grievance and i agree with that. Another element worth pointing out. Over time the economic base of these groups has changed. So many of them are criminal activities. There in the drug trade. Basically been closing of their own taxes in that area so that is mixed with all of the deprivation that was suffered. Lets move to the french and go around the back. To the distinguished panel. And my question is the timing back then. And if you could comment on your recent book the post and if you could comment on that. One of the problems being faced today is to deliver money to the idbs, in pakistan or caller of the people who have access to banking and the banking system. The it ps, theyre working on that system and support programs and the National Support program, trying to get money into them, and the point is bringing technology in and a lot of effort into this. The government is trying. It is not for lack of effort. It can be more organized. Much more effort is required but basically you have got to give them something which is not broken up mostly but you have to give them the amount of decisions of the making process on their own communities. When the addition is taking part that is very important and decide what is good for them. Without knowing anything about the demography or the place that you decide what is going on. You can shed light on a number of things in this process. These figures being bandied about, the number of idbs, the foreign powers in 1998, even with the 2. 9 increase, over a million in registered it ps. Very important point. The fact that even the 1998 census was not done in any particular manner. We kept saying in the last decade there are 2. 5 Million People in 2000 i may have mentioned the right figure from my book about briefly the effort to one point. I used figures of 7 million. I was corrected by a friend whose said shortly 10 to 12 million and this person actually is based on producing some of the best supports, the fought off funded by the british government, theyre doing a lot of work. Maybe 7 to 8 for sure. And theyre not only coming from there but other areas as well because of lack of enforcement, Economic Issues there might be each person will get a check going on even if you are you want to go get that, that pressure as well. Theres a strong assessments that the Pakistani Military and others, half a million. There was this issue of the substance. I will link this assessment for capacity to analyze. We always talk about the Haqqani Group. The group is providing logistics, a change of thinking about military intelligence. They provide logistical support, dismantling the Training Center and the beneficiary and taliban so something has to be done about the analytical capability of the government and civilian military. With the absence of the capture or killing of these leaders still remains a very open question. Go ahead. Thank you very much. Is a unique experience to see the three distinguished experts. One reason about and the Pakistan American League and observation, other than recently in pakistan. I found them totally they had they were really speaking to with one voice. Sometimes you see because of the politicians statements and other things but other than that, they are working together, as well as working closely with the administration, we are going to win that war, and which we dont but this is done terrorism. He doesnt draw any battle lines and even the superpowers generally face in this territory. Given the time line of the time frame, it is difficult to get. After that for the time being moving forward, at the same time, to rehabilitate all these people about the numbers we are disputing. My question one question is since the Afghan Taliban would be under pressure, the forces would be tested, the very high position rating Ground Forces and they will be under pressure with law forces and by Pakistan Army. Is there any possibility of the doctrine of necessity they might start working together . Anyone in the back who couldnt hear . To make the point, they saw a great convergence among the vote military people he met on this exercise and the question, is there a possibility the Pakistani Taliban joining hands . Intercepted messages what was said was due not engage with the Pakistan Army. They lay this to the end of the year. At that point it became a nightmare responsibility. They might link up to get there. I have no doubt in my mind that whatever the differences are, at the end of the day as far as ideology is concerned. The second part, the taliban will be under pressure from iran forces. It is the other way around. Iran forces will be under pressure from the taliban. Having eliminated the last straw horse of the basis, a tremendous favor to Iran National forces by not lying there logistics to take from this place. It will not recapture this area from the Pakistan Army to do this. There is no blueprint. I can only take some other things. The commitment in the Pakistan Army that i have never seen in all my life is something which is amazing. It is the real pleasure to get feedback from them. In my own unit i take it from my own view that for two years, and 9,000 people brothers, cousins, which is happening, my feeling is the optimism is the third. We have got to get our act together, work very well to enunciate and say you have got to activate, we do not have a National Security service or strategy. The civil government has to spell out a National Security strategy and once you have National Security, the minimum program which all Political Parties agree, then you can go ahead and do all the things you can within that framework and the framework where you disagree of course you sit down and debate. Would you like to add something . I understand your hope and you mean very well because you want to see pakistani democracy flourish. It is not about only convergence. It is about supremacy. You have to decide everyone is not armies implementation and leadership is important. Is not about a balance and equal ability, military officers of Big Government officials. They have to always be subservient and respectful toward leadership, in democratic transition. I see that convergence happening because they pushed from this side and the taliban also will see some action, and this military unit and to decide the incidents who died in action. These are signs of caliban, what is more hopeful about the acquisition of expending the network. Because there are no signs of any affective action. The rise of the Pakistani Taliban, i think that is not possible. Is highly likely. At some stage the convergence of interest in coming together of the militants, i hope to be proved wrong. That is no more a possibility, the future of afghanistan, political crisis can be a major factor, in the Afghan Taliban. If you could stand up and identify yourself and ask your question. I am a recent graduates of the university of texas. It seems to me the operation was strategic on the Pakistani Army in the sense that the government is trying to my question is keeping in mind afghanistan and pakistan, you think operation permanency, by going to the taliban to the Afghan Government . It is safe to say it is not impossible. It is possible they have some hideouts. The freedom of movement, what they had, strategically they wanted to go to the end of february. By this time the operation goes one hour after the last one finished, once the e elections are over, the air force mostly involved but going back to something, i lived in karachi and it is are far better place thanks to the literary force and because of that the targeted killings have come down. Somebody yesterday, large portions dominated the taliban, false. Some Political Parties to dominate that area and some areas, certainly the taliban may be dead but few areas are dominated by the taliban. They have hideouts and have to be taken out but they have done a good job over the last four nine months teresa or order. A few days ago of person was cost from the leaders house. Only two people. How can you take the way something that killed two people and publicly motivated . And also depends on the interrogation. There is a question in the back over its third. After that i would like to come to the front over here and these of the last two services. We are running out of time so go ahead. It looks like really concerned about the information. And in pakistan, it seems as if the Pakistani Army so many different things. What does that mean for your development . Concerned about these human response. Thank you. The economy as a whole, let me take another question and we have both of you so go ahead. Thank you for the very informative presentation. Quick question. The appointment, special representative by china for afghanistan recently. Special representative from china, afghanistan and pakistan. Lets go back to the young man over is there who i was going to ignore. The question is very clear. Could you comment on the potential security situation, in light of the indication especially with the upcoming you feel as though maybe you might, that might undermine games. Thank you. Question about the imposition of article 245 which is bringing to update everyone as of today section 44 has been imposed which means more than four people in the public. If you wouldnt mind trying to respond. I am not qualified. To focus upon this, Law Enforcement agencies lack of enforcement which means you have to stop people from getting together it would be a good test to see because the talibans point of view, theyre looking for the opportunity so this, to know whether they are really on the run or their forces dismantled because again pakistani intelligence has the capacity to solve suicide bombers so this could be important and politically very nervous about this issue. You can see the absence of capacity. In china, it was coming and the u. S. Drawdown is happening. The chinese in france is increasing, china for the first time in recent years offered training which never happens. Previously their focus was only on the economic factors. We have seen this change and they choreographed from their point of view. Sometimes that can be good. If there is more International Interest because so far, they took the responsibility in afghanistan so if china is taking more responsibility or initiatives from other countries that would be a good sign. Personal information from the chinese, they expressed an interest in Peace Keeping and largescale than before even though there are 600 peacekeepers for the u. N. Rich people i dont think what comes out is they decide to have the chinese economic corridor and investing a lot of money in roads and bridges right down to run mullah. The Peoples Liberation army in 1970 as a helicopter pilot used to wonder about the young man where it is coming from because now over a billion dollars, absolutely determined and it makes sense for them to have somebody who fought this area especially this area to answer your question who would actually if we have any problems particularly because the chinese go through the center, through this area where the trouble is taking part. You will have problems and they are investing a lot and all these stations are south along this area so the director of the board to the International Organization in geneva for the last 20 years. My own feeling is the Pakistan Government will not be able to do it with outside agencies. Specialized agencies, all these different agencies, already helping out. I believe i may be wrong but i believe there is coordination going on. The only disturbing fact is fear for security. That is float only thing. And insisting in this area they must have pakistani element from outside coming in. One figure cited by the government of pakistan related to costs of the Security Operations and the cost to the economy for the last decade plus has been upwards of 60 billion to the pakistani economy. Those numbers, that is a very fitting end, which included military tactics and strategy, discussion of civilian aspect and the economy. The critical part that is still missing, too early to say where the spot ends. General David Petraeus asked a journalist tell me how this ends. Nobody yet knows how this is going to end but it has raised enough questions that i am very grateful to hassan abbas and ikram sehgal for helping us understand which way this is going and what development questions are. Until and unless pakistani society, pakistan civil government, institutions and the military can get together and carve out a National Strategy and create a nexus between counterterrorism and counterinsurgency this is not going to end well. On that less than optimistic note i thank you all for coming and join me in thanking our guests. [applause]
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