Transcripts For CNBC Street Signs 20170508

Position for this party in parliament. Early polls suggesting in march could just about fall short. And for the third dime, akzo rejecting a bid from ppg, lower hostile bid could lose. Well, a very interesting guest on squawk box, saying the shares on the market, there was a real expectation from the markets actually indeed after mr. Trump as well. And indeed after the selections on the outside. With trading and elections these days, even if you get the result right, you might get the trading result wrong. Its been very difficult to trade. You see even on the margin much stronger than anyone anticipated for macron. That made a difference for the per spception here in france. The european stock markets, theyve actually turned negative, after initially opening higher. Following a strong set across the board. For positions, people just wanting to lowering their positions as well. Bank, banks are amongst the biggest decliners. You look at this. Stocks trading lower. Having had a big selloff as well. Where does it go now, on the back of where its going to increase from the opec producers but, yeah, oil prices have given up pretty much most of their overnight gains. The stock market climbed to about the highest level in a decade leading to the second round. There was a lot in the markets, a sellback effect today. Lets just talk about the french president elect, Emmanuel Macron, attempting to heal Division Information the country. For 12 of the ballot, which is kite extraordinary, addressing supporters after his victory, macron says he expects those angry with the status quo and those who voted for Marine Le Pen. Translator for those who voted today for mrs. Le pen, do not boo them. Today, they express anger and disarray, stiles, disbelief, i respect that. Theres no reason to vote for the extremes anymore. The events unfolding very quickly last night. Le pen addressed supporters soon after the first results came in. She positioned herself as the leader of the opposition, and then supporters to cement a change in french politics. Translator the first round from the start a major decomposition in french political life through the elimination of the major party. This second round is reorgani reorganizing around the patriots that will close the divide. And after that, protests and demonstrations expected across france today as the companys hard line trade union the cdt have called the members to mark the start of macrons presidency. This followed clashes in paris between police, antifascist groups, in the aftermath of the vote on sunday. Protesters started fires and lit flares as they squared up to security motherseforces. About 12 of the vote here as well youve got 11 million french men and women who voted for a far right candidate, rather than a centrist proeuropean banker. Then the likes of the unions on one time, the melenchon defenders. Macron has got a mandate. Hes got a very big mandate but i think there are enormous challenges straight away. The more that will come out and protest around any more changes of labor laws. Already the protests of last year that shut down Many Industries and many businesses across the French Economy, having an impact, macron is going to try and negotiate, id say. Thats going to be different this time around. Last time, we saw changes pushed around without consultation. I think he might try and change the dialogue this time around. But le pen at this point didnt get the 40 mark. I think that was one of the points that we saw on the ground with the election. Supporters were so enthusiastic. And as to what she had at this point for that rationale and also to keep on pushing the brexit message. You got to say, will that go away . If depends along his success. It depends upon his policies outside of france as well. How he forms an alliance with merkel or mr. Schultz as well depending on who gets the election votes in september and in germany as well. I spoke to macron about this when i was actually in berlin and he was in berlin just having spoken to merkel that the germans are watching. Okay, chirac didnt manage to push forward, sarkozy. Maybe reverse that. Exactly. I think the germans are actually a lot of my german friends tell me its a lack of ta appetite of a nation to boost itself. Theyre hoping. For the washup of politics here, and the votes, many of them may have been melenchon voters. Dont forget, voters about 7 million of them, needed to rally behind macron. Some of which have come across in a strong mandate now in last nights washup of the victory. Those voters may go back to melenchon which will be an issue, perhaps for macron, as he tries to push policies through. Were going to hand it back to cnbc, but in the center right party, what do they care about, what alliance do they form, if need with with macron, or do they try to differentiate them well try to answer one or two of them. Steven and karen, thank you for that. The discussion what weve seen from the u. S. From president trump, in this country, the population has been guided more so than before the election, the first 100 days. Of course, thats always a risk for france as well. Will it actually go to the proportions that weve seen in the u. S. And violents protests. Lets bring the chief Investment Officer at dolphin. A further risk on rally here, are you as surprised as many others in the market . No, im not surprised. I mean, the outcome of the french vote is pretty much expected. The polls got it right the first time. So quite a sure move for at least the assets. Though, this does not mean that were still in a risk mode. I think that circle of Political Uncertainty closes today after the French Elections. Yet, on the other hand, weve got many other risk events. Weve got the italian federal elections at some point next year and then weve got the ecb. It seems that a lot of people think that macron might be the trigger for the ecb tightening . Absolutely, youre very right on that. Weve had macro catalysts and political catalysts. From the political side, we see that the politicians have set the tone for a risk environment. But in the macrolevel, i think the macro numbers continue to be good. And now in the spotlight on the ecb. Now, inflation of ecb looks to be on target. I think president draghi has already set the tone and the stage for a potential height rake. Thats with we remain positive, and positive on european equity. And negative on government bonds, particularly german bonds. I want to go to the similarity of u. S. Markets. What we saw happening in the u. S. With trump and inflation trade. With the slump, it may come back it may not. Do you see that with macron trade . And the secular rally, weve seen in the last few weeks but will it extend further . Will we see inflation pick up because of macron . I think macron has a trigger point, just an excuse. I think the european project and the eurozone currently has all of the right ingredients for investors to be either. We had good valuation. Early growth, early, gdp numbers pretty robust. And also ecb. So the inflation trade looks intact. Compared to other regions, i think that europe is ready to go. Do you want to overweight france . Because you think macron can actually get a working majority of parliament. That remains the question right now. And france, we know labor laws are always a big question mark. And in europe generally the structure and form remain a challenge. But i think that Going Forward would have to overweigh it. France at the center and spain and even greece. Obviously favor it cyclical. And once again, i just want to bring the very bullish message youve got for investors. You say double digit returns between now and the end of the year. Thats quite a big ask . Yes, profit taking and its logical investors taking to the profit. Its an old saying, for more investors, but looking ahead, i think that major European Industries could go back to the highs. All right. Thank you so much for your insight. Chief Investment Officer at dolfin. Still coming up on the show will it be the most Important Partnership in europe . Well get merkels reaction to the macron victory. Thats coming up. Dont go away. Hey, the future, whats her problem . Apparently, i kept her up all night. She said the future freaks her out. How come no one likes me, jim . Intel does just think of everything intels doing right now with artificial intelligence. And pretty soon ai is going to help executives like her see trends to stay ahead of her competition. No more sleepless nights. Were going to be friends im sorry about this. Dont be embarrassed of me, jim. Im getting excited about this we know the future. Were going to be friends because were building it. Lets talk about some the corporate nice this morning. American paint maker ppg has issued a statement expressing its disappointment after its dutch rival akzo nobel rejected its takeover bid. Ppg says its proposal would generate superior investor value. Ppg now has until the 1st of june to decide whether to make a formal bid for akzo. In other news, Lloyds Finance directeder George Palmer could be appointed ceo. This according to the times newspaper. Lloyds potential contingency plan followed speculation after the British Government completes the sale of its shares in the bank. Ca karen. Thank you very much. We are bringing you live reaction to the French Election last night. Reaction specifically from across europe had congratulated Emmanuel Macron on his win. Many touting the importance of the future. Jeanclaude juncker. And theresa may offered a warm congratulations tweeting that she looked forward to working with the president elect. And Stephen Seibert tweeting his congratulations saying macrons victory was a victory for europe. Quite a bit of reaction in the to w twitter sphere last night. Clearly, its been a showing that macrons direction in europe and being proeuropean. Angela merkel has endorsed him before in france. And she is backing him quite big. And course what they were saying on twitter, that is the general line here in berlin. Is that macron will get again very strong cooperation between france and germany. This is why. This cooperation between these two countries were the driving motive behind the european creation. Saying that between germany and france, the whole project of the europe is in danger. So, where we are now is something completely different. Everybody is asking about the future of europe. Of course, Angela Merkels party in the eu had other reasons for being quite enthusiastic, thats because Angela Merkels party won in germany. And its quite a time for her and the backing of the eu going into the allimportant election in september. And it again as was young candidates which won that election which also a promising time. Back to you. All right. Ill pick that up there, thank you very much for that indeed, vanessa. Guess what, Emmanuel Macron abouhas been elected as president of france. Weve experienced divisions across the country. A lot of the socialists who basically decided well, they were going to go for either le pen or macron. Macron won 66 of the votes. His rival candidate, Marine Le Pen won 34 . A record for future elections. Now, the euro bounced with the result, initially hitting a sixmonth high versus the dollar. Incredible scenes down at the louvre last night. And ode to joy from beethoven. We had an ode to joy from beethoven at the Louvre Museum last night. That macron there told supporters that the rest of the world would be watching how it would react. As. Translator the people of the world look for a new hope. A safer world. A world of freedom to defend it, a world of growth, a world of more justice, and more environment agendas. To defend our democratic vitality, to reinforce our economy. With the new protections of this world around us to give a voice to everyone through school, work. And culture. I think Emmanuel Macron sums the elite of france in many ways, doesnt he . Hes a businessman who went into politics. And covering both of those as well. Weve got another guest actually now, karen, who in a similar vein. A town counselor. And also youre an entrepreneur. So, lets start off with the politics first of all. Good news or bad news that macron is your next president . Well, half and half. Good news because were having a fresh tide in french politics. We have a new president , 39 years old. And its the first time that a totally unknown candidate has been elected. You know, three years ago, no one knew about Emmanuel Macron. Also, its the first time in the French Republic that he comes from a party which was unknown a year ago. Usually, their president coming from or the socialist party. So french politics is being reinvented this time. So it wouldnt have happened if it wouldnt have been the same old french politics, i. E. , a scandal, if the republicans hadnt imploded upon themselves, may we wouldnt have had. My candidate melenchon was leading the polls just after the primary election. He was the favorite. And now he is well, he was at the president ial election, i think he will retire hopefully from the french and politics. But what was very new during this election, its a sixround election. Two rounds of primary for both the social iist jeanluc melenchon. And then were having the parliamentary election, so, we are having a new battle. Yesterday, as we said, we have have strong images, a battle of communication which has been won by eman u wmanuel macron yester. He tried to reinvent a specific manner of doing politics. We all say doing politics in a different manner is something good, but this time, he managed to do it. And this is what we didnt manage do do as republicans. You talk about the ideas, but some of the ideas are the same. You talk about the right policy from the republican side. There is similarity on it, the cut in corporation tax. Also reduction in terms of the public sector, not as much as he was talking about, i think he was talking about 100,000 jobs out of Public Service to 120 to macron. There will be support for some of the Macron Campaign pledges from republicans, as you see it . Well, you know, we are part of the history. My Political Party comes from religion. And there is a tradition. And we will fight for these ideas. Its true that Emmanuel Macron will take ideas bouncing from the left, bouncing from the right. But i think that there is left and right. We cannot mix them up. Also, what is true, is that part of will vote, when he will imprison them when they will be on the good side. For example, fighting against terror, fighting against unemployment. These are a few mainstream idea where is we can join together. What ground do the republicans what ground dot republ do the republicans now seem to capture . What do they do now . Well, there will be the question of the Prime Minister. You know. This week, Emmanuel Macron will give the name of his Prime Minister. Our Prime Minister as a candidate, and we have 577 candidates which are wellknown on the ground battling and doing campaign for it. Which is not the case because they are very new candidates. We have experience on our side. As a small businessman what do you think of macron . As a small businessman, i think he is when i have my company it was a target. So, im happy to have him as the guy. Thank you very much. Towns counselor here and entrepreneur as well. Steve and karen, thank you for that. I want to draw your attention back to the banking serg ining which is seeing a little bit of a selloff. Keep in mind, banking stocks have seen the first round of french president ial elections, since then, the last two weeks, theyve rallied. A massive 12 of what youre seeing today is, of course, a little bit of profit taking and maybe some worries. Telling of the election and the ecbs potential tightening. Well be back in two. [vo] when it comes to investing, looking from a fresh perspective can make all the difference. It can provide what we call an unlock a realization that often reveals a better path forward. At wells fargo, its our expertise in finding this kind of insight that has lead us to become one of the largest investment and Wealth Management firms in the country. Discover how we can help find your unlock. Welcome to our special French Election coverage, live from paris on street signs. Im steve sedgwick. These are your headlines. A macron relief rally is shortlived. We got rumors buying ahead, of course, and now selling the fact. This has sent bank shares into the red. The euro also gives up gains against the dollar despite an initial wave across the eu that boosts the new currency to sixmonth highs. And a battle live ahead, though, as macron needs now to build a position for his parliament from scratch. T could fall short of an outright majority in the lower house. And akzo rejecting an offer from ppg, as the bid could lose. Lets have a look at the u. S. Futures first off. And were not seeing a very kwivnsing picture here. The nasdaq up slightly, the s p 500 rally, 4 on friday to a french record high of 2,393 points, it was up for the week, the third consecutive weekly rise. Weve seen a lot of activity in the tech sector and oil prices bouncing back. And that helped the markets to fresh record highs. The dow jones. It seems like profit taking here and not too much of a redepose of the French Elections. Were seeing a similar picture here in europe, what youll see is that profit taking is the main gain. And this is an index that has rallied quite a lot in the last weeks, it rallied for more than 7 . And some would even argue its now in overbought territory. The xetra dax even. And the level of european risk in the eurozone off ever so slights by 2. 4 . This market has rallied 8. 8 . Only the ftse 100 is managing to eke out small gains. And since roughly 7 00 in yesterdays trading sessions, all eyes on what the euro dollar is doing. We did sigh it hit a sixmonth high on the back of the macron win. Pretty much the name of the game this morning. Profit taking by the rumor, and sell. Thats what were seeing happening in the dollar. 1. 0959 for the day. Karen. Weve been reflecting here in paris on the days events. We finally saw the charismatic speaker that weve been speaking about here in france. We didnt see it in the audience of the nation, but certainly saw it in his supporters what was quite telling when he spoke about his family and loved ones. It does seem that his wife is very popular as macron himself. Last week, we did see a little bit on squawk box. And i dont think he had had any vavavoom. He described himself as an ordinary man. I think that was very powerful for his presidency. So is macron going to give the French Economy a bit of oomph, a bit of charisma now with his youth, his personality, his force of will . Well, his biographer has been writing about the kind of man he is, apparently when he comes up to you and shakes your hand he will put his arm around you and sort of lean into you and look into your eyes and look into your soul. Its the empathy with the ele eelectorate. Hes going to take the empathy to try to talk about a different story and connecting france to the globalization thats taking place. And not only has he go g ing drag the French Economy and french people away from the 21st century but reendorse the relationship with the germans. Hes got to bring the commission and make sure europe moves in that direction. Hes got to handle lets face it one of the closest allies in europe. The french are very close in many, many ways. And then, of course, we understand the allegations about mr. Putin, what he may or may not have done. Who he may or may not have favored. And actually, they need to improve that relationship as well. So theres lots of international issues, as well as domestic ones where this young, charismatic leader is going to find difficult. I think character is key here and well see how that plays out in the next five years. Lets talk about whats h happening in frank. Macron will carry out ve day heren alongside hollande. Lets go to clare. Reporter the two men are right now walking up the champselysees where they put flowers under the statue of general de gaulle. And theyre together putting flowers on the grave of the unknown soldier right underneath the arc de triomphe. And he will not be on it, in the ceremony, but its interesting, everybody will observe the press here, everybody will be watching how the two men interact. As you know, Francois Hollande was a mentor who launched the career when he hired him as an economy adviser during the campaign in 2012. And when he designated him minister of economy. And then last year, macron launched the movement. For a while, he was called the brutist of french politics. Because in many ways he killed his father if politics. But this week will also be crucial for Emmanuel Macron because thats the transition week for him. They will have to designate 577 members of parliament that will be representing him in the legislative elections. Which will be very crucial. Because if he doesnt get the majority in the parliament, he will have to face either a cohabitation, meaning another majority of a movement as a parliament. And administer a Prime Minister that would not be are from the movement. So that will be would have to be very difficult. Or make Strong Alliance from the election which has now he has moved out. So its a very tricky political situation for him. And, of course, all eyes in. And this morning, to see the two men side by side. The new generation. Someone who is needed from the right nor the left. And his mentor all together, thats really for the french people. Carolyn. Thank you for that. Lets get more on investment and reaction outlook. Of thank you so much for coming in. Of the expectations coming in, were seeing that the markets are in a bit of a selloff mode. Is that a surprise to you . Not really. The polls have been r re predicting this victory for a good amount of time now. Its what is expected. Perhaps we expected it to be a little less short. But we did see this at the opening, right, the cac reached a high since 2008. Theue rallied a bit. I would think its not a selloff but profit taking and a momentum. How strong will be the momentum be Going Forward . Major obstacles are in macrons way. And even if he does have a working majority, a working coalition in the assembly, can he actually push through reforms . Well, well have to see. But were looking at europe and french markets have been held back by this cloud of Political Risk hanging over france. And the only momentum that weve seen so far since, you know, second half of last year has been very strong. And we would expect markets to catch up to that Global Investor flows to come back to europe. Even if he does nothing. In a way, weve seen a lot of upside here if hes able to deliver reforms. But its not as if, oh, unless he delivers reforms, this momentum is going to stall. We dont think thats the case. Were you talk about the french and i want to quantify this briefly, allocations of french stocks have seen inflows of 562 million in the week following the first round. And investments inflows of 7. 7 billion since the start of the year going to the bank of america and meryrill lynch. Do you think the inflows will continue at the same pace . Or do you think people will say, wait a second, now major risks have been removed, taking major gains, it can get much better . Im not so sure. We sought 40 billion of outflows last year. So whats come in so far say small fraction of that. So, were quite positive of that the inflows back into european markets will continue, particularly since the expectation that the economy, the fundamentals, the corporate sector are going to continue to perform very strongly. I just want to bring you in breaking news in form of comments coming from the Rating Agency of moodys saying macrons policies credit positive for france. No surprise here but they do point out that Implementation Risk remains the same. Moodys saying it will be crucial in terming whether the new president is able to achieve his policy plans. Macrons policy plans are positive. And dead consolidation and one last nine, frances general governing debt of 1. 5 of gdp. Unlikely to decline materially before the end of the decade. So i guess theres a dose of a bit of a reality check in there, coming from the statement from moodys. But many are hoping that this will be the major turning point for france. The lack of competitiveness when if comes to its standing within europe and in the world as, you know, a great industrial nation. Do you think this is it . I think its definitely the best hope weve had in decades, that we can finally overcome these issues that have been plaguing the french economies for some time. But, look, remember in the 90s, the french actually outperformed germany. So this is labor market competitiveness. Its really a role of one in 2000 and the last decade that needs to be addressed. Emmanuel macron has courageous ideas to do. As far as the public debt goes, i think the real issue is public spending. You have to rein in public spending. So, yes, the question is will he be able to implement this plan . But the reality is, theres a bit of agreement within the political path on the need do do these reforms. The question then is, can we sell them to the country . Well have to see about that. Isabelle, just wondering akin to what were seeing in the u. S. With major announcements being put out by donald trump its in first 100 days, and being difficult to implement because of pushback from both sides of the aisle. Do you think macron will have much of a honeymoon period . I dont think he will have a honeymoon period. I think its clear that a number of people voted against his opponent rather than against him. I think the awareness, the magnitude of the challenge that was reflected in the very subdued way it was a. Dodd. Thank you for that. Strategist at blackrock. Still coming up on the show, how will Emmanuel Macron handle the demands of his office. Well speak to a former mreeg axel lemaire, freeze stick around. Im just looking at the latest note coming from bank of America Merrill lynch saying that its upgrading french gdp forecasts by 20 basis points for 2017 and 10 basis founds pour 2018 at 1. 3 and 1. 4 respe respective respectively. Well take it, on the back of Emmanuel Macron being elected. Hes known to be an economic liberal. The question for economists out there is whether he can push through all of this reform. Steve. Thank you very much indeed for that carolin. The relationship between france and the commission and france and eu, proeuropean who wants more integration. And a eurozone finance minister as well. Weve been speaking for the commission, president jeanluc juncker offering his congratulations. Speaking to cnbc, the European Commission of economic and financial affairs, echoing this sentime sentiment, saying he was optimistic about the future of the union. First, you got to deal with brexit and to succeed in that negotiation. Second, youve got to bring the 27 members of the eu together. And unity is very important for the market, for protection and defense. And also, we can get together for those who want to speed up in that area, some i would say, reinforced cooperation. And the most reinforced cooperation is the eurozone. The 85 of the gdp and all of the countries inside the eu will have the capacity. You must remember in the treaties, that europe is a country of all europeans. And just one country, except uk. So, i think we need from there give a new impetus, a new strength. Say, okay, its fine, he protects us, but what is lacking. Very interesting listening to pierre moscovici. Very interesting. They both have similar heritage, being from the socialist party originally. Let me hand it back to you in the studio, carcarolin. And i want to talk to another member of the socialist party, and pat of macrons objective of unifying the it. And growing disenchantment which plagued it. Axelle lemaire joins me around the desk in the studio. Youve worked alongside Emmanuel Macron for years. You know him very well. What do you think is going through his mind . Is he humbled by the fact that hes elected as the new president . I think it shows that he has a modest approach to his election which is good because his challenges are going to be huge in his capacity to govern, hes going to face a real radical position coming both from parliament, but also from the french people, as many of them are angry. So, his capacity for to create unity behind the win is going to be difficult. And i was there yesterday, and i saw mind the gap. I thought mind the gap, thats really a bit of a challenge for france. Still the gap in the social territorial confessional divide between the country. It seems like this is something that the uk should be exporting. Sole the mind the gap expression. Given the way its characterized as Emmanuel Macron as being a very dynamic leader, very charismatic. Hes essentially a gogetter. What do you think will happen the next few weeks as he tries to cobble together a government, tries to find alliances . Is he someone who goes out, is he a consensusbuilder . He someone who picks up the phone, writes emails and gets together with people . Hes showed that he had the ability to do that with his campaign. Now, its another story because creating a coalition in parliament is also accommodating with other political parties. At this precise moment, i dont have the answer to that question, but i think an easy one to answer. Take my example, i specialize in immigration matters. I think were watching the same direction when it comes to the importance of creating an innovative country. Would he be ready to accept what he can bring as a social democrat. And very clean on making the social democracy is as well. And social justice, what place would he give me in a future parliament . This is this is what he has to give in the coming weeks. It is said to be one of the biggest losers, the parliamentary election. Is the socialist party facing an imposition similar to what we saw in greece . Is there a way of avoiding that fate . The staff did manage to reinvent itself. Clearly, thats what Emmanuel Macron just did. There was something to do on that ground. And with the conservative party traditional parties in general, and we see similar trends in other european countries. So, i think we try to create Community Using digital tools, actually, in a very efficient ways to go for the young Political Party. So, i think the values and convictions, socialism and social democracy values behind the socialist party will, of course, be made. And theyre important. But what form will they take in the future, i dont know. Axelle before we let you go, lets talk about your agreement a little bit. This is about the tech sector. This is about the new age. Do you think that paris will now be atratracting a lot of more exciting startups at the expense of london because of brex brexit . I dont think it will be at the expense of london but i think its very good news for the french sectors. Weve done a lot in the past. All brand new as of today. But the reality is that paris and france are attractive and extremely competitive now. I think what will be, there will be light shed on that economys reality. And if it can bring Foreign Investors in the country to back startups and their growth in euro europe, that would be great because its well deserved. All right, axelle. Always appreciate your opinion from the socialist party. Guys, youve done a fantastic job yesterday and this morning. I do appreciate that. Its a bit chilly in france. I do want to know if youve picked up any friends aside from the actual croissant and baguette and french champagne . The lasting impression . I think mr. Macron is an incredible journey as an investment banker, making a fortune in four straight years, becoming an economy adviser. And now hes become president of france. Its an incredible turn of events. It continues on this path. Who know what is he can achieve. He said last night the world will be astonished by france. I hope so. Of course, enormous challenges domestically and internationally ahead for messer macron. Thats it for todays show. Im carolin roth, Worldwide Exchange is up next. Well see you tomorrow. Byebye. Good morning. Macron wins the political outsider defeats Marine Le Pen in the french president ial race sending the euro in a sixmonth high. Were live on the ground in paris, straight ahead. From buffett, from wells fargo, to trump to taxes, Shareholder Meeting coming up. Plus, deal buzz, major Wireless Partnership in the works. Its monday, may 8th, Worldwide Exchange begins right now. Good morning, and a very warm welcome to Worldwide Exchange on cnbc. Im