Transcripts For CNBC Street Signs 20170427

4 buiillion in wealth managemen. Our markets business on the debt side, even relative to the last First Quarter last year, were up more than 10 . In equities, substantial improvement over the Fourth Quarter of last year. The only business which is slightly down is our Transaction Banking business. But thats a function of the fact that we have exited a number of countries and also exited a number of highrisk clients. Let us especially talk about clients. You are saying in that letter to employees that clients are coming back. Are clients reassured about the stability of deutsche . When you look at the performance q1 number, we are north of 14 . Thats a very Strong Capital position from which were coming. The funding position of the bank has substantially improved. We now are able to talk to our clients based on a completely different starting point. And we see that reflected. Many people came back when they heard about the settlement with the department of justice. And there was kind of a next wave which kicked in when we announced the Capital Raise. Lets look to the states. The United States is very important market for you. How concerned are you about the Trump Administration being a nonworld trade bank . You are absolutely right. The u. S. Market is a key market for us. Its a market, in particular when you look into our corporate and Investment Banking business, were very active. Its important for the franchise. We do see a substantial pick up in client activity in the market. We are participating in that. When we look at Corporate Finance business, in the First Quarter were up 29 , which is a remarkable result. So, you know, to the extent and you never know to what you can attribute this to you, whether its the administration or Better Business sentiment, but we see an active u. S. Market. We are benefitting from that, like many others. What is the message to shareholders from your side for 2017 . Can you keep the momentum up which were seeing in First Quarter . So, i guess core messages would be this is not going to be a loss year. The bank is doing its utmost to end the year with profit. The First Quarter was a decent start. We are starting at least with a cushion in the First Quarter, which can always be better. But thats a decent start. Thats point one. It will still be a bit of a yearoff transition. Theres legal matters we need to work through. Still i. T. Projects we need to implement. Its also not that we had to we had the big cases out of the way, we have the Capital Raise and the next day everything is honky dory and revenues come back overnight. It doesnt happen like that. Things take tile. We need to work. We need to work hard what we can definitely say, the bank has turned. Every business is improving. Its now going to be up to us and the markets how fast this improvement will translate into better numbers. Annette is in frankfurt. Am i right in saying that even if theyre looking at 2017 as being the transitional year, they are still sounding a word of optimism. Y therees, theres a word of optimism. Ive been covering that bank for years and years, you can feel change in that bank. They are optimistic, not bullishly optimistic. Theres a sense of optimism that they need to work hard to get clients back, to get money back, asset back. And it seems to work. Thats the core message for the First Quarter. That they are seeing client activity picking up. They are seeing clients coming back to Deutsche Bank which they lost last year with that whole instability surrounding the bank. And thats actually the positive message. Okay, theres still many issues out there. We have the legal case in russia yet to be settled. Dont know whether the doj will go again for a very high settlement fee here. But still, i think the lump sum or the bumper year of legal settlement is behind us. Thats also the core message. When it comes to another area, which is interesting because of course Deutsche Bank being a german bank, its very big here but also big in the city. Weve been hearing that theyre looking at moving 4,000 jobs from the uk to frankfurt. I asked also whether this is the most extreme scenario. The interesting answer is its not the most extreme answer. It can even get worse. So there is a lot of Movement Still for the bank. Back to you. Annette, thank you very much. Good to see you. Well chat later, because well be doing a special ecb Program Later on. So no doubt well have annettes input for that. In europe we were called off by a couple of points. Lower by a half percent or so on the stoxx 600 as you can see here. So were just a bit lower. We have this u. S. Tax cut plan laid out to us by trump, but a lot of analysis is stating that hes just repeating his campaign promises. We dont actually have new information, including details on how the cuts would be paid for in the states without increasing deficit. That could lead to worries of growth from the u. S. As well. Well get stuck into this later on. European equity markets are down across the board as seen on the screen. When it comes to the sectors, majority of selling taking place in the big ones like insurers, basic resources, media off by 1. 5 . Technology hanging on to slight gains. We will Talk Technology in about ten minutes with arjen. Lets talk about some Bigger Picture things taking place, Steven Andrews is with us this morning. Good morning. Good morning. Glad you turned the phone off so you dont get anymore calls about where the kitchen utensils are. What do you think about the markets, given weve seen this massive rally coming off the month of april, but nevertheless the Political Risk is out of the way, were looking optimistic with regards to growth. Anything to prevent this from moving higher . Will we see a correction . Theres always something to prevent us from moving higher. Its interesting how we frame our anxieties. Its all about politics. We know less about politics than we know about economics. What we can know are the facts. Theyre improving. Equity valuations look still pretty fair. So you get compensated for taking risk here. Youre talking both uk, europe, u. S. Or are you particularly focused on the u. S. . Talking worldwide. We can break that down. There are areas of asia, south korea, taiwan looking attractive. Both the euro area and to some extent the uk. The euro area is a particular target for us now. Were seeing growing earnings, better cyclical data. Even though it feels like a consensus call, doesnt always mean its wrong. Whats the ecb going to do today . Even if they leave rates unchanged, will they change language significantly . They might do. You have to be careful as to why you care. Why are we watching . There are two aspects to the ecb statement. One says heres what we think might happen, heres our language selection, whether we will include this word or that word. We can play the language bingo game of saying is it included or not included . Thats fun but a waste of time. We dont know much about what the ecb will say. More importantly, what are the ecbs fears . What are they worried about . Whats the reaction function . Are they facing growth or a fear of inflation . Under mario draghi, its much more about saying we support growth. The challenge for the ecb is to continue to articulate that in an environment where people are saying worry over. Lets restore normalcy. Do you think inflation will continue to move higher and pose a problem for the ecb sooner than what they might be anticipating . I think it will pose a problem of dialogue, communication, rather than a fundamental problem. Sure, inflation can move higher, theyll have voices calling from the inflationists saying you have a problem here. It will be a test of draghis mettle saying we need to standstill for a long time. European unemployment is high for a long, long time. How do you think well react to tapering . Weve seen tapering already. How do you think well react to the complete unwinding of stimulus if, indeed, thats the continued path were heading down. Depends on the circumstances, if the underlying fundamentals have been supportive. Lets say we forget about the importance of tapering, forget about the priorities of the feardriven motivations and think about hey, how can i get on this equity bull market . How can i take advantage of this renewed optimism about the region . Its very simple how some narratives can change but the same set of facts the euro area once seen in crisis is described in somewhat more robust terms now. Were just so far behind with regards to getting out of the tapering scenario. Getting out to the start of the still plus scenario compared to how the u. S. Did it. There is a lot of catch up doing undertaken from a policy perspective and from a fundamental perspective. Too many people out of work. That needs to be brought back in. Its not just about Monetary Policy. Biz the fess cits about the fi side and deregulating. Steven, thank you. Coming up on the show let me say as well, get your emails in. Find us on twitter louisabojesen. Is it the return of renzi . Were live in rome bring you the latest on italys democratic primary. Good morning. Welcome back. Im louisa bojesen. This is still street signs. Nokia beat analyst forecasts with a better than expected quarterly profit before interest and tack taxes of 341 Million Euros. First quarter Revenue Growth slowed at the advertising giant wpp dragged down by a few major account losses and a declining ad spend. Like for like sales rose by 0. in the quarter. The ceo, sir Martin Sorrell, said china is down. Were down in china 6 , 7 , weve seen multinationals come under heavier pressure in china the growth in the economy is being driven by real estate and construction. Theres been some loosening from an Economic Policy point of view in china. But i dont think well see any significant change until after the Peoples Party congress in november. Samsung shares hit record highs after the Company Reported the strongest First Quarter profits since 2013. This is thanks to a boost seen in its memory chip business. The south korean tech giant said it was expecting continued growth in the second quarter, that as it rolls out the new galaxy s8 smartphone. Arn Arjun Kharpal joins us with more. It was a positive earnings outlook to kick off the year for samsung. The strength came from the components business. These are the memory chips theyre selling to other companies for their smartphones. This accounted for 45 of sales, thats up from 34 of sales in the First Quarter what that underlines is the shift samsung is going through, diversifying business away from just smartphones. Before they were reliant on smartphones. Now they say they have components and displays, which is the screens that Many Companies are wanting to buy now, including reportedly apple who might be buying some screens for samsung for the next iphone. So overall a good quarter for samsung. Do you think theyre trying to diversify more after the note 7 fiasco in. Yes, it showed the reliance they have on the smartphone business, but overall the smartphone growth is slowing globally that should be a concern for apple and samsung. So weve seen from samsung a shift into other areas of business, including the internet of things, home appliances, but also focusing on the ultra highend smartphones. If you look at the galaxy s8, it costs more to make and theyre selling it for a higher price, which ultimately helps revenues and margins. This is the point, people are willing to fork out money for higherend smartphones. Thats a trend samsung and apple are tapping into. What else can it do that the 7 couldnt . Im always struck about how small the differences are sometimes yet everybody rushes out and pays a bunch of money for an upgraded version. Straight off the bat is the bigger screen and the new design, molding this Glass Technology to create this bezelless display, as it were. And a lot of improvements going on under the hood, new components underneath. Its faster t h, it has new sofe in it. The innovation for the future wont really come from the hardware. A lot look the same. There will be small innovations like screen, but a lot of developments on the Software Side and the machine developing and Intelligence Software being put inside. And the 30 price difference. Weve seen the stock run up strongly before these earnings. Thats likely to continue through the end of the year. Arjun, thank you very much. Doeeutsche bourse shares ha beat expectations. He would heard from the deutsche head earlier. Lufthansa in germany still has posted a wider net loss than expected. The Company Says Demand at the air Freight Division and Maintenance Unit has taken off and its seeing improved price trends at the airlines. The airline reported an adjust the earnings before tax of 25 Million Euros against a loss of 53 Million Euros. Bayer raised its guidance for 2017. Earnings and sales at the drugmaker topped estimates with the covestro business providing the boost. The cfo will be leaving in may of 2018. And continuing with the german role, basf posting a 29 rise in ebit in the First Quarter. They remain cautious on the 2017 outlook but expect fullyear profits to come in at top end of the forecasted range. Now, putting germany to one side. In italy the partyleft pd party holds its primary election this weekend to select a new leader. The polls show the former Prime Minister matteo renzi will win by a comfortable margin. Renzi resigning after the referendum defeat. Is this really back into politics for him . Based on the polls it looks like hes likely toned up the candida to end up the party candidate. He was up on stage last night debating against two of his main opponents here in the primary. One of them is a governor, and the other is the current minister of justice here. Andrea orlando. One thing renzi was focused on during his conversations was about the European Union and italys role in europe. This is something he always put at the heart of his candidacy. Hes been a pro european candidate for a long time. In italy there are movements against the European Union. The five Star Movement and their coalition partners. Theres a lot of euro skepticism at the moment. Theres also the italian attitude towards russia. I spoke a while ago to the head of the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs committee here, and she told me she saw russia as a major threat to italian politics. The way the russians are getting close to movements and want to divide the European Union, the european integration process is threatening. And i think that we can subscribe the five Star Movement to this part of the european political spectrum. I think that its not in the interest of russians to ever weaken European Union. Having a strong European Union is more convenient for them to have a Strong Partner probably is a bit too much now to nominate each other. But to have a strong counterpart with which to negotiate and to have a dialogue. Having smaller european states, each one going in its direction and leaving nato exposed is the only alliance that keeps us together, i dont think its in the interest of the russians as well. Thats the head of the Foreign Affairs committee here in Italian Parliament speaking to me and talking about russia potentially needing a strong European Union. One thing we do hear a lot about is how russia wants a weaker nato. Later today the nato secretarygeneral will meet behind me with the italian Prime Minister, gentiloni, one thing they will be talking about is the threat from russia. There are fighters right now in estonia. That build up in the baltics, including french and british troops is something theyll be discussing. Some people in italy from the fiveStar Movement in particular say italy should consider taking its troops out of nato. Thats clearly something that they are concerned about. Thank you very much. We will see you soon again. Willem joining us from rome. Is he still there . I wanted to ask about rome. How is rome, apart from all the political coverage. It looks a bit dreary at the moment. It has seen sunnier days, put it that way. But theres a lot of lovely cappuccino here. We had an interesting morning talking to people about the italian political situation. Its really up in the air as to what will happen in the next general election. One thing that renzi focused on, you remember that constitutional reform referendum that failed is trying to change the way that italians select and vote for their politicians. The instability in italian politics is largely because of the weight of the proportional vote passes in these elections and it means you end up with minority governments, they have to Form Coalition governments with whom you squabble a lot with. They hope to allow leaders to develop future reform plans, they can take five, ten years into account as opposed to always looking on the shorter horizon. Willem, thank you very much. Try the thincrust pizzas. Will do. Theres Nothing Better in rome. Nothing better. I need go back. Willem, thank you very much. Email the show. Super happy in particular to hear from you today. Tomorrow is a special show. I cant tell you more, but its a special show. Be sure to tune in find us on streetsignseurope cnbc and also on twitter, louisabojesen. Be sure to watch tomorrow. Really happy if you do. We need to move on. Lloyds banking groups First Quarter underlying profit before tax topping analyst estimates, coming in at 2. 1 billion pounds versus 1. 9 billion expected. The pound said it was on track to deliver financial targets for 2017. Astrazenecas core earnings rose by 4 in the First Quarter. Revenue fell 12 dragged down by falling drug staales. They confirmed their fullyear outlook as well. We need to take a tiny break. Check out World Markets live, its our blog. It runs throughout the trading day. Lots of stuff on. There were also on twitter live, louisabojesen. Tomorrow is a special show. Lots of amazing guests. Tune in then as well. Hello. Welcome to street signs. Im louisa bojesen. These are your headlines. Deutsche Bank Shares Fall of germanys biggest lender misses the First Quarter revenue. The ceo says the bank is seeing improvement from last year. Revenue is slightly up from the First Quarter of last year. Which i think is a good result. What is the most important point is in every business line that we have, we are seeing an improvement. Lufthansa shares lose altitude as the German Airline posted a wider net loss than expected in the First Quarter. Bayer stock moves higher after the Company Raises its guidance in 2017 as it posts earnings and sales ahead of the forecasts. Wpp revenue is hurt by a weaker north american market. Ceo Martin Sorrell tells this show sales in china are also under pressure and are down 6 to 7 at the beginning of the year. China is flat, its down in the First Quarter. Thats to do with what were seeing going on in media and data business in china. But were expecting a pick up as we gohrough the year. Good morning, everyone. Welcome back. Very glad youre with us here on street signs. A glance at our u. S. Futures. Five hours away from the market hope. There the implied open shows a slightly flattish to mixed story out there. You would have noted yesterday that we did see a bit of a softer close on u. S. Markets. Flat to softer. Overall profits for s p 500 companies, its estimated they have risen almost 12 during the First Quarter. 11. 11. 8 . The most rise in profits since 2011. European markets this morning, quite a lot of red out there. Just one European Market hanging on to slight gains, the market in finland. You have the fx markets also being very much in focus given that we have the ecb Rate Decision later today. Ill join you for that at 13 30 cet. No change anticipated, but as always we like to hang on what mr. Draghi has to say. We hang on the words, try to determine the direction the ecb is going and whether maybe theyll change their guidance today. Many people think theyre not, but who knows. In terms of the actual ecb and some more official lines coming out, the Monetary Policy is expected to stay unchanged but youre looking at stronger growth prospects, easing european Political Risk, and that may lead to a more hawkish tone from mario draghi and perhaps set the stage for whats to come in the future. We have the fx analyst from commerzbank in frankfurt. H i know i pronounced your last name. A couple of extra gs and ys thrown in there. So what do you think the ecb will tell us today and what impact could that have on the euro . Generally i dont believe that the ecb or ecb president mario draghi will present any news today or change its wording from the last meetings stateme statement, essentially. But this still might have an impact on markets. Eventually speculation regarding an imminent exit from the expansionary Monetary Policy that were currently seeing have increased. In my views, some of these expectations and speculations are a bit overdone, particularly looking at the rate expectations. Market participants expect the ecb to hike Interest Rates already next year. In my view, thats overdone. I dont think the ecb will hike Interest Rates that soon after the qe program. And mario draghi may dampen these expectations today as well. This will weigh on the euro particularly. Its a good point, you bring forth. Im particularly interested in why the euro rises given what the ecb could tell us, when looking at what happened in the u. S. , as another guest was saying, once they started tapering, you saw this dollar rise. In europe it seems like if the ecb supports us, the euro rises. If the ecb tapers, the euro rises. Looking at inflation, the euro rises. All the scenarios together, growth, weaker growth, no growth, causes the euro to potentially rise at the moment. Yes. Definitely. I mean, i agree with the general expectation that the ecb will start to taper its qe bond purchases next year. And it will have to prepare the markets for this step already this year. However i feel that many Market Participants are misinterpreting this step as qualitative change of the Monetary Policy, the start of the normalization process. This is what sparked the dollar in the taper tantrum in 2013. They viewed this as a start of normalization process and started to process the rate hike cycle, which we now know happened sooner than people assumed. Something this is happening now in the eurozone. People are expecting a rate hike much too soon, thats supporting the euro, and i feel these expectations will be disappointed. Euro dollar 11. 0917. Where do we go now . I think an exit from the expansionary Monetary Policy, we continue to support the euro in the next couple of months. I dont think the rate hike expectations will decline entirely. Even though mario draghi may be more dovish today and cautious. I dont think euro dollar will decline back to the lows weve seen. However i see the upside capped as well particularly from the u. S. Dollar side. Theres still much uncertainty regarding the tax reform, which we just got presented yesterday. I see the dollar weakening a little bit, what are the chances this tax proposal is going through u. S. Congress. I think there is as much uncertainty about this weighing on the u. S. Dollar going ahead. I think we will remain in a range. So, any specific levels that you throw out . Are we just range bound in this 108 109 . I see it upside capped around maybe 1. 10 to 1. 12. The down side towards 1. 05. I think this is a broad range that we will stay in. I dont see a reason for us to break out any time soon. Before i let you go, any other currencies you would want to draw to our attention now . At the moment, i think the swiss franc is interesting. Weve seen a rise in the swiss following the relief after the president ial Election Results in france after the first round. I think these are actually quite attractive levels to enter for long positions, in fact. I dont think that this rise is going to be permanent. Obviously its caused by the decline in Political Risks in eurozone, but Political Risks remain obviously in the eurozone. We have french elections, but we have also elections coming up in germany, italy, and i dont think that risks will decline entirely. At some point they will come up again and cause appreciation pressure on the franc. We have elections all over the place. Thank you very much. Thank you very much for being with us. Fx analyst at commerzbank. Dont miss our live coverage of the ecb Rate Decision. Thats coming up on decision time 13 30 cet. Well bring that you decision live. So loads more to come on the ecb. I want to get you up to date on whats going on. Flashes through on saudi aramco. Saudi aramco still on track for an ipo in 2018. That coming see yacht wires. Thats what the ceo has been saying. The saudi aramco saying the preparations are on track. And shale producers are concentrating on sweet spots and will find it hard to maintain the same efficiency at the same costs going forward. Oil just a bit lower here in todays trade. The mexican peso surging more than 1 against the dollar after President Trump told the leaders of mexico and canada that he would not pull the u. S. Out of nafta at this time. The three countries will begin swiftly renegotiating the trade pact. The announcement came hours after a report that the Trump Administration submitted a draft executive order for review that would have removed the u. S. From nafta. The white house proposed a series of broad tax cuts yesterday including cutting the Corporate Tax rate from 35 to 15 . The onepage plan echoed themes from the Trump Campaign but it was light on specifics. Nbc News National correspondent Peter Alexander has more. Reporter tonight, from the president and his team on taxes, an ambitious opening bid. We have a once in a Generation Opportunity to do something really big. Reporter the white house outlining a sweeping across the board tax overhaul. Under the trump plan, we will have a massive tax cut for businesses and massive tax reform. Reporter the headliner, reducing the number of individual income tax brackets from seven to three, 10 , 25 , and 35 . The administration doubling the standard deduction for individuals and married couples, that would leave more money in peoples pockets and make filing taxes easier. We are going to eliminate on the personal side all Tax Deductions other than mortgage interest and charitable deductions. Reporter a boon for businesses, too, both large and small. Slashing the Corporate Tax rate to 15 , a cut that would also extend to personal real estate empires, like mr. Trumps. A special onetime tax to lure companies to reinvest money kept overseas back here at home, and the elimination of tax breaks for special interests. The goal, stimulating the economy. The specifics, still a mystery. We will be back to you with very firm details. Were working on lots of details. Will let you know the specific details. Reporter a year ago candidate trump said he believes raising taxes on the wealthy. I do. Including myself. I do. Will the president end up paying more or less taxes as a result of this plan . Let me just comment. I cant comment on the president s tax situation, since i dont have access to that. Reporter in 2005 the alternative minimum tax that the president now wants to kill, cost him 31 million. Just one example how he could benefit. Its a great plan. Reporter President Trump tonight deflecting questions about warnings his plan would blow a hole in the deficit. If you just say i can cut taxes without consequence, thats voodoo economics. This is a proposal thats incomplete at best. Get in touch. As usual, you can see mail the show, the address streetsignseurope cnbc. Com. I see whats coming in. Matt, barry, peter, evan, the rest of you. I will be posing these questions when i can to relevant guests as well. As i said, tune in tomorrow, its a special show tomorrow. Be sure to join. Loads of fantastic guests tomorrow as well. You can find us on twitter, too, louisabojesen. Happy to get you involved in the conversations. Coming up, the latest developments in the uk Election Campaign and the implications for brexit. Stay with us on street signs. Hi everybody. Good morning. Welcome back. If youre just joining us, were looking at Deutsche Bank shares being lower as revenue missed analyst estimates. Annette spoke to the cfo about the banks postbrexit plans and asked about the reports that the lender could move up to 4,000 jobs to frankfurt. The number youre quoting is one of various scenarios that were looking at. We need to be clear. We do not yet know what the implications of brexit on the financial industry will be. We are in discussions with the uk and the yueurozone trying to understand which direction people are looking. We understand some things will have to be moved into the eurozone, frankfurt is the most natural place to go to. How many thats going to be, we dont know. What you quoted is one scenario. Thats probably more on the high end. My question, thats the followup question. Is that the most extreme scenario . Is that a middle scenario . Where does the scenario stand . I would characterize this as a more extreme scenario. You can think of more extreme scenarios as is always the case. But i its a number which is probably more at higher end. I do expect indeed a substantial portion of activities having to be moved into the eurozone. For us in particular, its a question of how do we want to position ourselves. Its not that we its some of that will also be driven by how does the bank want to position itself. Not just what is required from a regulatory and legal point of view. A new poll has found the majority of british voters believe brexit was the wrong decision. The survey reveals that 45 of the electorate are against leaving the eu compared to 43 who believe its the correct decision. Ahead of junes election, another poll showed that support for the conservative party has been cut by 3 points, labour has seen numbers rise by 4 points. Gina miller, the scm direct cofounder and Brexit Campaigner believes the partys decision to call an early election will ultimately result in the uk receiving a less favorable deal from the eu. Speaking earlier this morning she explained why. I think mrs. May has already weakened our position. By calling this election she will put in the manifesto exactly what her approach to brexit will be. All this im not going to show my hand, shes going to show all her hand in her manifesto. Richard meyers is with us to talk more about this. Do you think may has weakened her hand . I dont think so. I think that the election is almost going to increase her authority, she will have a mandate she didnt have before. Assuming the polls are right, notwithstanding that latest poll, the five of the last seven polls have shown her 20 points ahead of labour, which is landslide majority territory. I think it doesnt necessarily strengthen her hand visavis the eu, it strengthens her hand visavis within her own party to make concessions, and hopefully that should help get a better deal. But theres a lot that could go wrong on that front. A snap ae lelection like the coming up, does that mean a hard brexit is less likely . In my view it does. Negotiation is all about options. What the snap election has done is open up an option that didnt exist three months ago. So the snap election has three points. The first is weve seen the Draft Council guidelines, the Draft Guidelines from the european parliament. They sort of mention this idea that a transitional agreement could be on the cards. But it would entail tough conditions, including eu rules after brexit has taken place. Weve also seen theresa may talk about the possibility of Free Movement carrying on as part of an implement period or transitional period. Thats one point. The second point we dont have this election coming up in 2020 it would have been difficult going into an election without having brexit done and dusted. Gina miller thinks theresa may will have to put in her manifesto the sort of exact sort of nature of when well get our laws and whatever, get control back. I think theres enough wiggle room left in the manifesto, so that will give you until 2022 as a result of the snap election. And theres Something Like 59 conservative mps who are hardline euro skeptics who want a clean brexit, done and dusted. If the majority that theresa may wins is bigger than the euro skeptics, she can make a deal over the heads of their objections. But is this going to be at the expense of labour, this snap election . Absolutely. This is a perfect storm for labour being out of power for a generation. I think the conservative party will pick up see thes from laea. Theyll lose a couple seats to democrats. They are in that 40 that voted to remain. How about the divorce bill as well . Cameron has indicated he thinks britain should pay for it. Britain has a choice here. We can either take back control on april 19, not pay our bills, and that leads down this hard brexit, wt ashga trading rules. Thats what euro skeptics would like. But i think its becoming increasingly apparent in my opinion that the theres one priority which is taking back control. Theres another priority which is averting that cliff edge hard brexit scenario where you have queues at customs, and all the rest of it, the loss of passports. I think if you want to avert the cliff edge scenario you have to accept that you will have to make big concessions. The eu will not make con secoces to the agenda. They look at this as a selfinflicted wound on the part of the uk. They look at maintaining the political project which is perfectly reasonable from their perspective. Theres no reason to make things easy for the uk because that will encourage other people out the door. As i say, we were really pessimistic a few months ago on the possibility of averting that hard brexit scenario. I think we dont have an open door now, but the door is ajar. Theres still a lot that could go wrong. I think the manifesto is a big moment on the 8th of may, if the torries mess up and make it too sort of clear what they need to achieve over what timeline, then i would be i would be worried. Richard, thank you very much. Richard miles, political analyst from absolute strategy. Dont miss, of course, our live coverage of the ecb Rate Decision. Thats coming up on decision time 13 30 cet. We have a couple hours. Ill be back and join you then. The European Markets all in red except the finnish market. Thats it for todays show. Well pass you back to worldwide exchange. I am totally blind. And for years ive struggled with non24, a circadian rhythm disorder that can turn my sleep cycles upside down. It kept me from doing the things i truly love to do. Sometimes id show up early; sometimes i was too late. And sometimes, even though i was there. I didnt really feel. There. Talk to your doctor, and call 8442342424 to learn more. Xwl gl. Good morning, the bank of japan raising economic forecasts. Up next a decision from the ecb. New this morning, President Trump says he wont terminate the nafta treaty now, but what should we expect from a renegotiating deal . Details coming up. And responding to a pr disaster. Why United Airlines is willing to give passengers up to 10,000. Details coming up on that. Its thursday, april 27, 2017. Worldwide exchange begins right now. Good morning. Welcome to