We start with the equity markets which is moving higher as the fed meets to decide whether or not to begin raising rates. Lets look at the numbers with the dow, the nasdaq and the s p. The nasdaq and the s p are now tracking for their second consecutive week of gains. Something that neither has done in nearly three months. But, ty, the real action here is in the oil market this hour with oil soaring. Wti crude up by 5. 3 . It could still be the biggest daily gain since august 31st when wti jumped nearly 9 . Brent crude, and weve been talking about the spread there narrowing, havent we, ty . But its up by 4 as well. Jack Jackie Deangelis is joining us from the nymex. Lots of people bringing lots of reasons to the table as to why we took off. You tell us what youre hearing. I have three main reasons that were moving higher, a spike like this today, 5. 5 . The first is that bullish eia report. A drawdown in inventories. Cushing down nearly 2 Million Barrels. Refinery runs are going up, and also u. S. Production falling closer to 9. 1 Million Barrels a day. Those imparts weorts were down. The second reason, u. S. Boots on the ground in syria. Special op forces are engaged with the kurds there. The defense officials are saying this is an advise and assist role but anytime we have conflict like that or an issue like that in the middle east, it certainly sends these prices up. Back to you, mandy. Thank you very much for that, jackie. Well keep following that big story because Energy Stocks are one of the reasons why the overall market has been keeping its gains. Dominic chu, give us a market flash. Energy stocks are leading all s p 500 sectors higher. The best of the ten up by 2. 5 so far. Near the highest levels on that jump in oil prices jackie was referring to. The sector is tracking for its best day since august but is still bear market territory. The trend has been down for Energy Stocks. Down over 30 from last years september highs. Exploration and Production Companies are helping to lead the way higher. Youve got names like apache, newfield, chesapeake on the natural gas side, anadarko, up 4 to 5 . 6 out of the top 10 performers in the s p all in the energy sector. Back over to you. Well keep following that. Lets get to bob pisani on the floor of the stock exchange. The important thing is we are continuing our trend of moving up the day before a fed meeting. Yesterday we had people front running that, happening again today. We moved up going into the european close but particularly after the Energy Reports came out, and i think thats a significant factor in why the markets moved to the upside. Everybody wants to any if the fed is going to hike or not. I dont know i just look at the market and here is what i see on this fed hike question, yes or no. Stocks are up, gold and commodities are up, the dollar is down, banks, which are Interest Rate sensitive are generally mixed but to the downside, and the vix, the volatility index is in a down trend. All this would suggest is the market is not expecting a rate hike or if it is its certainly a de minimis one. Dominick is right about oil moving things around. Continental resources, you can see right after the reports came out around 10 30, those stocks moving to the upside. Back to you. All right, bob. Thank you very much. It is, of course, t minus one day until that much anticipated decision. Policymakers kick off their meeting today. Where do the nations top money managers, investment strategists, and economists starnd on the possibility of a rate hike tomorrow . Steve liesman asked them and hes here with the results of the exclusive cnbc fed survey. Big news in this survey today. We have for the first time in the five years weve been doing this a plurality of respondents think the fed will raise in the meeting that is in the month of the survey. 49 , up changed from august, think they will hike in september. 43 say no, and you have 8 dont know. Its a very, very close call with a plurality saying, yes, it happens. Lets look at the broader time line and what you see here, thats not thats the time clock, not the time line. Theres the time line. Well done, guys. What you see when you look at this is ultimately that they have pushed back, in other words sooner, the whole policy outlook here. They said they were going to hike rates january 16. When everybody was all upset and anxious about the chinese slowdown and the market volatility. The average is november 2015, what we showed you earlier was the median of september. I guess its not really working all that great. What i can tell you is the Balance Sheet, september 2016, thats been pulled back. Decline in august, i believe. And the terminal rate over here, Third Quarter, 2018, now it is First Quarter 2018. So everybody happens a little sooner. What they had done is pushed everything ahead because of the concern. Want to show you one other chart here which is the fed funds path, and looking at 0. 37 for a fed funds rate at the end of the year. 1. 17. But when you take a wide view of this, take a look at whats happened. The original forecast for 2016 when we first asked this in august of 14 was 2 . Almost 100 basis points or 80 basis points has been dialed out of Market Expectations for the fed funds rate. Art hogan says the fed may well do the right thing, raise rates in september at the wrong time and still not move markets much as we have been pricing in this move for a while. John has been steadfast throughout says there is no justification based on the feds data dependenciy for keeping rates at zero. Mandy, all this stuff is online, the full survey and an article ive written, cnbc. Com. As a veteran fed watcher what do you personally think . I think they dont do it. I think its a close call but they would rather markets be less volatile and i dont think they kneesly laid the groundwork. Will i be surprised if they do it . No, but thats playing both sides, i know. Always good to play both sides. A brock buster deal is dealing with anheuserbusch working on a takeover for sab miller. Shares of both companies are soaring. Anheuser is up by 8 . David faber is here with details. A lot of hurdles for this still to happen though, right, david . That is true, mandy. It would, of course, be one of the largest deals of all time if it did. There has been no shortage of speculation about this possibility for years. But this morning the clock did actually begin to tick, if you will, on budweiser making this bid for sab when sab came out with a press release saying they had been contacted. Under uk takeover law, 28 days is all they have unless it is extended by sab in which to make the formal bid for the company. Budweiser has said we are only going to move ahead if we get a recommended deal. Meaning theyre not going to make a hostile bid. It will be one that the board of sab feels is appropriate, and it will move ahead after that. Now, the key for sab may be very well focused on its two largest shareholders, altri, which owns 27 and the Santa Domingo company who own 14 . They have a significant board representation as well. They may all be represented by the same banker, something of a positive sign if youre budweiser. While they have 28 years, its been years they have been thinking about this, so one would think they are able to move fairly quickly with the proposal. That said, there are no shortage of things they have to go through, including hitting the financing markets for an enormous sum of money that could approach 50 billion or 60 billion pounds. They also have to put a bid in there that sab is willing is accept and that the Santa Domingos and altrias is willing to accept. Do they want more stock in their deal to make it more taxfree. The more cash there is for bud, the more accretive the deal will be. Analysts think it will be accretive at a 70 30 or even 60 40 split. Its not just sab, its not just bud, its not just altri. Look at the tap, molson coors. 50 of a joint venture they have to sell miller in the United States is owned by sab. Under that deal there is no doubt that would have to be divested. The expectation is molson coors would buy the 50 . It does need to happen if this deal is to go forward. It doesnt mean they have to announce and get all these investments done in 28 days or 56 days, but they certainly start to have to put the wheels in motion for all of that to happen. So to your point, mandy, certainly many things that will have to occur here, but the odds of success here do appear to be higher than you might expect because bud has been at it for a long time thinking about it. The financing markets are at least in its favor right now, perhaps it wants to move before rates really move in a significant way higher. And one would expect given altrias decision to take itself out of a conference, it at least has some sense as to what the proposal will look like. It has said in the last year it would be open to potentially selling that stake in sab though it has also said its perfectly happy to remain a large shareholder in that company. Its going to be interesting 28 days or maybe a little bit more. Back to you. Plenty of beers could be downed in that time. David, thank you very much. Shares of fed ex taking a big hit right now. Lets look at the chart of fed ex. The Parcel Delivery giant missing earnings estimates. Down 4. 5 or thereabouts cutting its outlook. Why are we focusing on fed ex . Why not. Its widely seen as a barometer of the economy. Morgan brennan is here with more. It certainly is seen as a barometer of the economy. Like we have seen throughout the transport sector, fed exs business is catering to businesses doing well. First quarter earnings at fed ex increasing 20 , but it still fell short of estimates. The delivery giant also trimming its full year eps guidance on weakening conditions, and a one time expense in its ground domestic unit. Heading into the holidays, executives saying they expect another record peak season. Theyre planning to high upward of 55,000 seasonal workers, 10 more than 2014. Also discussing rate increases including a new surcharge on oversized ground packages that will take effect in november. This is executives say companies are electing to ship these packages rather than handle them in their own stores. If you look at shares of fed ex, they are down as you mentioned about 4. 5 . Down about 15 so far on the year on that earnings miss, on that lowered guidance. Take a look at shares of competitor u. P. S. , thats trading lower, down 1 in sympathy as well. Sympathy, i like that, its nice companies have that, or stocks. Two big readings on the health of housing if the fed raises rates. Will home buying take a hit . Plus, under armour shares hitting new highs. They got brady, they got spieth, they got it going on. Ceo kevin plank will join us exclusively to lay out his growth plan. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. Plus, under armour shares oh, look. We have a bunch of. Announcer babies who are talked to from the time theyre born are more likely to have a successful future. Talking and reading to children in their first years has a huge impact on what they do with the rest of their lives. The fewer words they hear, the greater their chances of dropping out of school and getting into trouble. Talk. Read. Sing. Your words have the power to shape their world. Learn more at first5california. Com parents welcome back to power lunch. Lets get a check on gold prices. Right now up by nearly 2 , 1,122 the last trade there. Coming off the highs of the day right now, but still up by about, again, that decent mark, nearly 2 on that data showing a surprise drop in u. S. Inflation last month thats helping that case here. Gold miners are rising on that bit of news, perhaps the fed doesnt raise rates. The market investigatoe if yu look at some of the components, all up. Gold miners certainly a focus but the gold miners and gold prices have been in a relative down trend. Back over to you, ty. Two important readings on the health of housing on this fed day. Diana olick has it covered for us in washington. Di . We saw a pretty steep drop in Mortgage Applications last week. Both applications to refinance and to purchase a home even though Mortgage Rates really didnt move that much. Refis took the hit the worst as they are most rate sensitive. Rates are slightly higher than they have been but not really a lot higher. We got home Builder Sentiment for september, up one point. Confidence is still gaining steadily but interesting, the one part of the survey that was down was the sales expectations over the next six months. You ask if all this changes if the fed raises rates . Well, the fed does not directly correlate to higher Mortgage Rates but it does open the door for lenders to raise rates. For Home Builders it wont be a huge issue. It could have a bigger effect on mortgage refinances which as we said are incredibly rate sensitive. More on realty check. Cnbc. Com. If the fed does raise rate, what direct impact will it have on the Housing Market whether its refinancing or new applications . Red fins chief economist Nela Richardson joins us. When we try to answer that question, first of all, have you heard any Mortgage Brokers voice concern about a potential rate rise . Have you heard potential home buyers voice concern over that . Well, whatever happens tomorrow, one thing is concern, home buyers will react differently than traders. Home buyers dont think in basis points, they think in babies. They want to start families. Thats why they purchase homes, or they want to move to a new location. What we have heard across the board is buyers will carry on and hopefully theyll find a loan. Thats the key problem. Credit availability, that they will be able to obtain a mortgage to make that home purchase. Not necessarily the rate. Whats Credit Availability looking like now . Its getting better. Its not great. Its still really hard for a lot of people to get mortgages, especially if you dont have pristine credit. Thats the thing, thats the key factor thats driving the markets now. It doesnt matter how low the Interest Rate is, if you cant get a mortgage, you cant get a mortgage. Thats what people are more concerned about rather than whether its 3. 9 or 4. 1 for the 30year fixed. Can we extrapolate what level would rates have to rise to before you would see significant restriction. We surveyed home buyers and we found that 85 of those surveyed said they would carry on with their home purchase plans even if rates topped 5 . Thats significant. It tells you what the state of the home buyer mind is. We are not talking about people who are making a trading decision in the near term. Theyre making life decisions over the long term and no bump up in rates are going to derail that for most home buyers. Nela, great to talk to you. Thank you for setting the record straight. Ty, over to you. Still ahead, under arm youre me meeting with investors today. The stock up 50 so far this year. Thats a lot better than its arch rival nikcle. Whats ahead for the athletic giant . 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Meta is clinically proven to help lower cholesterol. Try meta today. And for a tasty heart healthy snack, try a meta health bar. Stocks continue to edge higher as the fed meets to debate rates. The dow is up more than 100 points this afternoon. S p gaining as well. Now, less than 7 from its may high. Our next guest is wally walker, the president and founder of hannah road capital. Up for the year unlike a lot of long short equity funds. Wally, welcome back. Good to be here. Lets talk a little bit about the fed. Would you just like to see them do something to get it over with . I would like to put it in the Rearview Mirror. I think the markets will do what theyre going to and im set up for either reaction but i think to put it in the Rearview Mirror is the best thing. Do you think they need to raise Interest Rates . I have no idea what theyre going to do. My main concern is if anyone would Pay Attention to my fed. Maybe i have been on the other coast for too long, but the 25 basis point increase is lost on me. I know you get to go to d. C. Which is a good thing. I think the ongoing cycle and trend are much more important. Were all about fueling the sturm and drang. Lets talk about your position. Were 45 net long. What would make you change one way or another and how would you do it . Im kind of hoping for a big dislocation tomorrow. I dont know what to expect, but i will increase my exposure if we get a big selloff and do the converse if the opposite happens. Right. So lets talk a little bit about positions in your fund. You have a lot of Small Cap Companies in there. You also have big ones like the disneys and so on and so forth. Give me an example, and i know that you hold a lot of positions for a long time. You trade around the margins, but you have some that youve owned for years. Give me a classic walker position. Well, a company i just visited called atlas financial. Youre listeners wouldnt have heard of it. Its a small Insurance Compa