Transcripts For BLOOMBERG The Pulse 20160822

From london. Im francine lacqua. Ther in the show, well ask lead singer of the iron maiden why hes launching his line in one of africas smallest countries, coming up in half an hour. First, to your markets, and then we have to look at the currency moves and what dollaryen is doing. I wanted to show you dollar yen, governor kuroda at 12079. Apparently we are seeing news on the Housing Market and i suggest everyone check out the brexit bulletin. This is the picture overall for stocks. We also have the appointment of the new Central Bank Governor but first, lets get the bloomberg first word news with nara change with never a chain which. Nejra paralegal kuroda says theres a good chance that the boj will add to its easing. The bojterview, he says will ask based on discussions of a comprehensive review at the september board meeting. Oil is falling after its longest run of gains in four years as iraq looks to increase exports amid the Global Supply glut. The country says it will boost crude shipments in the next few days. Oil entered a bull market on thursday amid speculation that talks may lead to actions to stabilize the market. Sticking exclusively to as ceo says he hopes opec members agree on the production freeze. We are still a huge cuts in and i hope that they can without decision increasing the previous month. Francinenejra pfizer is said te nearing a buy on a Biotech Company. People familiar with the situation say an agreement could be announced today, and pfizer is expected to pay a premium of about 26 . A pfizer spokeswoman declined to comment. The other representative did not immediately respond to phone calls and emails. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. Cehic; this is bloomberg. Francine thank you. 2016 still under consideration for a hike, and gross will pick up speed. Those are comments from Stanley Fischer on moving the dollar higher, his speech coming days before Janet Yellens hotly anticipated address. Lets welcome my guess for the first half of the show. Thank you so much for giving your time to the pulse. Give me a sense of how erratic the markets are. When you have a chart that shows every time the fed speaks, we have no clue shortterm Interest Rates will do. Which makes the comments more salient. But if you look at the dollar , it has taken back some of those losses, but not enough to suggest that the market believes Stanley Fischer that 2016 is a live year. That is with the tailwind of the rest of the world not throwing up economic surprises that will push the fed off path. Francine should we worry more about what the fed can do in an extra session . They are figuring out whether we need to change the inflation target, but we are so focused on month by month Interest Rate change how sure can we be that they have the tools to deal with the next downturn . Was interesting about his speech is that it finished off with the final paragraph talking about them being the only game in town. Unprecedented but withinly he finished off the refrain from all central bankers, the role of regulation. I dont think it is by any means of their, we face a protracted downturn in the u. S. , but i do think there has to be some acknowledgment that what happens in the race to the white house in november will materially impact the feds trajectory and therefore for people trying to guess where the fed are going to , they say the best guess is to wait and see. Francine we have gdp figures later on from the u. S. How much do we care . The composition may be doesnt reflect the strength or weakness of the u. S. Economy. I dont think it tells us an awful lot in terms of that behavior because what you will get on friday is janet yellen speaking at jackson hole francine 4 00 p. M. London time. Iswhat you will see from her whether her basket of key indicators remains unadjusted. Markets it the will be if she starts to shift what she is looking at. Those still the key metrics for her or is she shifting us down more to what Stanley Fischer has said . Francine is there a communication problem . We are all over the place. They will say there is no communication problem, we are data dependent. But you really dont want to Market Participant in an ideological disagreement. Do they have a communication problem . I think they have to look back to where we were in december, 2015, guiding the markets toward full rate rises. I would argue that there have been a basket of factors, but i think that suggests that some of their models are not fit for the purpose of what they are trying to do. Francine what did we learn from governor kuroda . He talked about further negative territory is he hindered by the fact that the rest of the world seems to think that its a bad idea to go to the negative territory . At the he really needed last g7 meeting was some suggestion of a new cooperation globally. And of course china is not making his job easier and while the rest of the world is looking , they arechina essentially devaluing, making the job ever more hard. The real challenge for him is the question you posed around the fed is the toolbook empty . Francine thank you so much for now. Stay with the pulse. Coming up, the battle for europe. Continental leaders talk brexit. We will learn whats on the agenda, and why one of heavy metals biggest stars is launching in one of africas smallest countries. The economics of aviation with iron maidens bruce biggins on. And we speak to the rbs chairman, a bloomberg exclusive. Francine this is the pulse. Lets get straight to the Bloomberg Business flash with the nejra cehic. Nejra s agenda is trading higher this syngenta is trading higher after they received approval from National Security officials worth 43 billion in the takeover of us was chemical company. The deal is expected to be completed by the end of the year but is still subject to antitrust review by regulators worldwide. Japans biggest brokerage, nomura, plans to resume a push to boost Investment Banking business in the united states. The ceo has been eliminating jobs and shoving businesses in europe and the americas to save about 700 million and spent six years of losses abroad. The shift comes as nomura anticipates rising volumes of mergers and stock offerings in the u. S. Uber has told investors it wont pay more than 2 billion for its main u. S. Rival, lyft, according to people familiar with the matter. It has been reported that they unsuccessfully sold for 9 billion while gm valued it at 5. 5 billion. And that is the Bloomberg Business flash. Isncine matteo renzi hosting the german chancellor at president for talks on the future of europe following the decision to leave the eu. The meeting takes place on board the italian Aircraft Carrier giuseppe garibaldi, named after the general who helped to unify the italian state in the 19th century. Lets get now from breast lets get more from brussels. I love the fact that its on the airship. It is quite telling, a nice backdrop for the talks. What is on the agenda today . I think the worship aspect is purely symbolic, but it goes to show what is at stake. Ever since the brexit vote, there has been a wakeup call for the rest of europe to think about what the European Union is doing right and what it is doing wrong. Today is every challenge to the European Union you can think about, from the migration crisis to terrorism to turkey since the attempted coup, and of course to brexit. There is a lot to discuss. Whether they will come up with any solutions is debatable. Francine ian, how does this feed into the break the debate . Will they talk brexit, but cant say anything public . Or do we think that negotiations are happening in the background . No. There is very little they can do. Its a symbol of these three leaders, the three biggest economies in the eu, meeting together. It shows to britain that brexit means brexit, and we will think about what the eu will look like without the u. K. And it. They are waiting to see how long the u. K. , allie long theresa may will take before she triggers article 50. In the meantime, they are thinking about what progress can the rest of europe make . What progress can the rest of europe due to say, look, brexit really was an alarm to the rest of us. We really want to get people to think about the future. Francine thank you so much. Ian wishard. My guest says the u. K. Is still in a state of prebrexit. Lets get more with simon french. We were talking about this last week. We dont really know what brexit brings, we dont really know what december will look like in terms of retail sales. With the prescription . If you are in charge of government finance, would you do anything differently . I think we will get a different fiscal stance of the u. K. Economy starting at the back in november that has been fairly well signaled. What will be interesting is not so much the envelope, it is expected to increase as a stabilizer but has certainly undergone some shock how sustainable is that is remains to be seen. There are suggestions that it wasnt particularly sustained. But what will be interesting is the industrial strategy that overlays the envelope because we will start to see some of the narratives that has come out of theresa mays recent speeches around more inclusive growth, more intervention, the totemic symbols of the past with the Nuclear Investment tied up in the french and chinese. How much is the government prepared to change rhetoric and how much will it change its actions . We wont know until november. Francine does the pound suggest does it translate into your world . The pounds decline, in the real shortterm, we have seen the early indicators with tourism and retail, International Investors coming into the u. K. Market, looking on a pure currency basis as an attractive opportunity. Unfortunately, this is still a hockey stick relationship as we see the impact on inflation coming later. Households will begin to understand that there are very low Energy Prices driving retail sales and the recent past may not be enough for the future we also start to get details about what brexit looks like. Francine we have on the merkel, matteo renzi, and others meeting without the u. K. The fact that they are all the worship i dont see it being comfortable, but do they just need to prepare in dealing with the World Without the u. K. . And how much impact will it have on their economy . I thought ian was right; it came to the heart of what they will be dealing with, contagion of agents. You look at the way the negotiations play out, which will be at least a twoyear gain. There will be signals to lots of other economies in the message they take away will derive on what chance does the other drive out of the European Union. Francine we spoke to Joseph Stiglitz on friday, and he said anything is better than europe at the moment. If that is the realization, would brussels not try to break up, or at least let the eu breakup if that is the wish of the people . One of the frustrations that i have they are separate concepts. At its core formation around cooperation is amortization has delivered lots of economic benefits. The eurozone is an unmitigated disaster and without the political will to push through integration, so unfinished eurozone is anything better. But navigating that challenge between the fragmentation in the eurozone problems is what they have to deal with. Francine and on the banking, of course. Century gdp is so less according to our next guest. What would you replace it with . We will discuss that next. This is bloomberg. Isancine the gross domestic used as a gauge that is struggling to keep up with changes and technology. Joining us from frankfurt is european economics reporter, who wrote a brilliant piece this morning. Good morning. What is wrong with gdp as a yardstick of the economy . Good morning, francine. Its simply increasingly difficult to tell what is really going on in modern industrialized economies. World,look around the even relatively recently, we are seeing things like a recession in the u. K. In 2013 revived out of existence. A similar thing may be going on in japan right now. In india, a new statistical method for measuring gdp makes it one of the fastestgrowing economies and is quite controversial. There is an increasing lack of competitiveness on the right way to measure the economy as we know it, and that doesnt even take into account in things like increasing impact of technology and aging on the way our economy works. Francine this is the problem with productivity. How much do we know about Central Banks relying on it, and what are the risks by continuing to use gdp . Well, as we have often reported, Central Banks are having increasing difficulty in measuring whats going on in the economy, Central Banks are going to hell to the metal. They are really pushing to close the output gap, thats an important element of gdp and if you cant measure it youre pushing too hard. Other times you may not be pushing hard enough. Francine so will be just throw that out . Should we just throw it out . If we look at these Statistical Community around the world, gdp collection agencies, there is a lot of work going on right now to try and find improvements to the existing model. That means plugging in different types of consumption, making assumptions that underlie them more realistic. We have a big statistics conference in germany this week looking at dozens and dozens of papers on how to do that. In the u. K. , something similar is going on. With a lot of work going on, nobody is at the stage where we are saying, we simply have to scrapit all and start again. What we have is a system that was generated in the 1930s, just after the great depression, where gdp comes from as a concept. For this long for and a lot of work will improve it before we say it is time to do something different. Francine jeff black, joining us from frankfurt. When you look at gdp, and this is something we were saying before, whos doing the best job . I dont know the exact numbers, but i assume that the fed, ecb have dozens of economists working for them, so they arent only looking at that. Thats right, and theres a lot of international cooperation. I wouldnt rule out one single country as being best. I think with interesting is countries will start to move away from gdp and towards a more colorful ways of measuring. We have Gross National happiness in bhutan. In the u. K. , the wellbeing metric. To what extent did those mandates i think it is putting together a basket of factors, which is transparent enough that people cant interpret what policies are the intent, but it is not as clunky as what gdp was envisioned when most developed economies were good, when measurement was quite straightforward, and in the servicebased economy it is harder to do although since then most developed economies have got up, harder to measure with great accuracy. Francine thank you for joining us. Up next, why one of heavy metals biggest stars is launching flights in one of africas smallest countries. The economics of aviation with bruce dickinson. This is bloomberg. Francine welcome to the pulse, live from london. Lets get straight to the bloomberg first word news with nurture which. Nejra franca japan governor harry zika kuroda says there says theiko kuroda boj wont hesitate to act based on discussions over the results of the conference of review at its september board meeting. Oil is falling after its longest run of gains in four years as iraq looks to increase exports amid the Global Supply glut. The company says it will boost crude shipments by about 5 of the next few days. Oil entered a bull market, that speculation about informal talks leading to action to stabilize the market. And speaking exclusively to saysberg, the ceo of enni he hope opec members agree on the production freeze. We are still a hug that we have to evacuate in the next month. I hope that they can find a with the stabilization in production without increasing from the previous month. Nejra pfizer is it to be nearing a deal to buy a u. S. Biotech company for 14 billion. People familiar with the situations say it could be announced as early as today. Pfizer is expected to pay a premium of 26 . A pfizer spokeswoman declined to comment. The other representatives did not immediately was on. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. Im nejra cehic; this is bloomberg. Francine thank you. Nejra cehic. What links one of the worlds biggest heavy metal stars and one of africas most countries . Smallest countries . My next guest is helping to launch commercial flights in the tiny state between ethiopia and somalia. Bruce dickinson. Its great to have you on the program. Please dont often get to talk about heavy metal and airlines in the same sentence. I end up being stuck in hotels around the world, and quite often the only thing that is in english is bloomberg. Francine [laughter] which is a good thing. New end up watching it going, ooh, wow. Buy pork belly. Francine so you know all about Interest Rate in the fed, but i wont ask you about that. [laughter] more than i ever needed to know. Francine talk to me about flights. Youre fronting air djibouti. 21, 22 im at the point where you could date me with tree rings. Francine and you flew in the last two or for iron maiden, you flew a 747. Yeah. Id been moonlighting as a commercial Airline Pilot for several years. I have a job with four companies, but the longest was with 10 years. 737s and 757s. Francine so you are a rock star how many months of the year . Then how much, percentagewise, are you a pilot . 7030 . In terms of time, yeah. I probably spend more time off tour, doing airline stuff, than i do doing music stuff. Although music stuff is in the background, because when i go home, i sit down with my guitar and p l. It is never not on your mind francine but you make a living out of being with iron maiden. Oh, yeah. Im making a jolly good living out of it. Francine so its a passion for flying. It is. I have created myself and my business partners, we have created this concept of aviation. We do have some hard assets in terms of space we are maintaining borrowing an airbus, trading small because of a worldwide shortage of pilots. We have an airline that operates basically it is outsourcing for other airlines. At the moment we are flying for an Italian Airline down in sardinia, providing extra capacity. And that is what we do. Were not interested in being the next easyjet, we arent interested in being the next ryanair. What we do, you may end up flying on ryanair or one of our airplanes, because they need the extra capacity. Francine the general thought process is that you want to be niche. Absolutely. Francine that people dont necessarily know well, one of the products we offer, a concept called airline in a box. Airline in a box how do you start an airline . The answer is we have everything you need. A fixed mortgage board. Francine does that make money . Yes, absolutely. Its for the airline that wants to start up, relatively low risk. What are the reasons why airlines go bust is not because they pay pilots too much, its because of airplanes. Airplanes on the ground cost half 1 million a month to sit there and do not a lot. You go bust quickly. Francine but you dont have to fly, you have to fill the seats. Well, as far as airline in the box, for us, we dont have to technically fill the seats. What we provide is the infrastructure. However we provide the infrastructure at a super reasonable rate. In other words, you can turn the tap on, and if the business doesnt suddenly transpire, you go, turn the tap off. So we dont go broke, and more importantly, the airline doesnt go broke. The problem with a lot of startup airlines is their appetite they are either much bigger than their belly francine they buy too much. And everybody, everybody hurts, because they end up paying a lot of money up front, they run out of cash resources, the person they gives them the airlines pistols francine if you are in the oil industry, talk to me about air djibouti. A lot of us had to go online to find out where absolutely. It is probably one of the most important countries in africa. Francine because of the link. Sibley because, first of all, it controls the red sea. Its closest francine we have a map, but i dont have time if you look there, whats just across the way, thats the human. If you can imagine djibouti not being friendly, its not a pretty sight in terms of the red sea. In djibouti, security is guaranteed by the french for the next 10, 15 years. The americans are there in strength, the spanish, the germans, the japanese, the chinese. The internet cable francine how big can this operation become . Who are you catering to . Business . In terms of passenger numbers, i think at the moment its going to be three or four aircrafts by the time we get down the line. In terms of freight, it has massive potential. Djibouti is one of the worlds biggest container hubs. Everything comes into djibouti from china, everything. Francine how much . Cars . Its on the website. They are building a massive freezone there. The chinese are building a huge container terminal, which is double the size of the previous one that was built by the emirates. So you have here a state which is tied to the dollar, the permanent American Military base there francine do you get royalties . What is your involvement exactly . In air djibouti, we provide infrastructure as our service. But we work very closely with the government. Advise people to hang on to as much of their money as possible as opposed to giving it all away, which some people in africa have done previously. Francine whats next . Another world tour . No. Box, in fact, airline in a the air djibouti complex prove the concept. We are already talking to two or three other countries that would all look at this and go, hey, this is great. The west is not have western europe it doesnt have the best record of looking after its investments in africa. Very often it is seen as a flash and burn, or a load of money and disappeared into the hills, and nothing ever seems to work and get left is real value. What we want to deliver is a Good Alliance that delivers real value and stays in cotry. We stay there and we develop the ability to do it on their own. In five or six years, we would like to say, thanks very much, we will fix the airplanes and you take it from here. Francine thank you so much. Singer ofinson, lead iron maiden. We do apologize for his colorful language. Coming up, details of Donald Trumps Fundraising Efforts. He tries a different approach to campaigning can you convince voters . Pfizer is close to a 14 billion bid for a Biotech Company. And coming up on surveillance, we speak to the rbs chairman harmon davies. This is bloomberg. Francine markets are up this morning. Lets head to the bloomberg with nejra cehic for your asset check. Nejra we are european equities rebound from their biggest weekly slide. The stoxx 600 up almost 7 10 of 1 . I thought it would bring up gr are, because what is interesting is that we are seeing those hawkish comments from the fed vice chairs Stanley Fischer feeding into the performance. Commodity producers as the worst performers, down almost 2 , largely because of a stronger dollar. Seeing banks and insurers as some of the best performers, because of course the prospect of a fed rate hike this year, the probability of that increases along with a stronger dollar, higher rates good for banks and insurers. Carmakers are the best performers on the weekly euro versus dollar. And the calls leading the gains it is the best performer on the stoxx 600 in terms of individual stock, it has risen as much as 12 and this of course is after they received approval from National Security officials for its takeover, which was really seen as the biggest regulatory hurdle of the 400 excuse me, of the 43 billion acquisition. Thent to take you to dollar, just to see the 60 of august. What you see here is the september rate hike possible. We saw the dollar strength, and then with the fed minutes they were interpreted as fairly dovish with a bit of weakness. Increase should be sooner rather than later, and finally we got the comments yesterday saying that the economic goals are close to being met, pushing the dollar up and hitting its highest level in a week. The emerging Market Impact is down here emerging markets stock at their highest level since july, 2015. Since then there have been two days a decline. Currencies are heading lower as well. Francine thank you. India is a central bank has a new governor, the Deputy Governor has been named as the man to take over as chief. Patel is seen as less outspoken than his predecessor, more politically aligned with the prime minister. Lets bring in something how much do we know about the new governor . Ell, the first thing that came to my investors when they found out was really. His name is very much at the center of what he tried to do, so there was a report in his and namely there was an inflation target and the etary policy committee continue most of the policy. There is a lot we dont know about him even though we have experience, he hasnt spoken much. In his three and a half years, we have very few interviews. It is likely we are going to have someone a little more subdued. You may remember the governor speaking on a wide array of things ranging from democracy, crony capitalism i dont think you will see this from the new governor. Rajan has ruffled some feathers and india with his speeches. It seems like we may be going toward a more quiet relationship, but that has yet to be tested. Francine thank you so much for the update. Turning to the u. S. Election, details of Donald Trumps Fundraising Efforts were released over the weekend, coming after the Clinton Foundation was criticized for accepting donations from corporations and foreign entities. Meanwhile, in his first tv out of the president ial campaign, he highlights distances between himself and clinton on issues like immigration, border security, and syrian refugees. Lets get more with stephanie baker, just returned from the states. Stephanie, thank you for joining us. One of the main differences in terms of fundraising between clinton and trump . We have seen from recent reporting that clinton is still outpacing him on fundraising. She raised 52 million to his 37 million. And more importantly is that she is outspending him. She has spent almost double what he has, and even though trump has started running tv ads, it is very light. If you compare to previous elections, at this point in the campaign, barack obama, mitt romney, he is way behind, and that is important because many states have adopted early voting, both absentee as well as inpol. He doesnt have much time. Francine what i find amazing we saw some repentance from donald trump last week. There has also been a reshuffle, his Campaign Manager, he has hired aides. The latest over the weekend, his new Campaign Manager says we will let trump be trump. I think that has been the problem, that he brought in Paul Manafort to professionalize his campaign. He really couldnt control him. He was on message for a while and slipped off. Recently you have seen him show a softer tone; he gave a speech saying he regretted personal pain he caused, without being specific about what he was regretting. Hes even his new Campaign Manager, kellyanne conway, gave an interview saying his policy, his pledge to deport 11 million undocumented immigrants, is still to be determined. Its unclear whether or not he will stick to that or come out with something new. Hes his own man, he stays to his own script, it is hard to control him. Francine thanks so much for the update. It will entertain us for a couple months. Stephanie baker. Up next, pfizer is said to be close to 40 billion deal. The winners, losers, and we breakdown pharmas next potential blockbuster deal. This is bloomberg. Francine this is the pulse. Lets get straight to the Bloomberg Business flash with nejra cehic. Nejra syngenta is trading sharply higher after cam china received approval from u. S. National Security Officials for a 43 billion takeover. The deal, expected to be completed by the end of the year, is still subject to antitrust reviews the regulators worldwide. Rekindled talks with a supplier after they halted deliveries and shut down production and factories, making its bestselling golf model. Work on it along with the passat. The court battle has showed output at two plants. Japans biggest brokerage, numeral, plans to hire bankers in the u. S. To push Investment Banking business there. Been eliminating jobs and shoveling businesses in europe and the americas to save about 700 million and stem six years of losses abroad. This comes as he anticipates rising mergers and stock offerings in the u. S. Francine thank you. Pfizer is said to be close to an agreement to buy a Biotech Company for about 14 billion. Those familiar say it could be announced as early as today. If it goes through, pfizer would gain a blockbuster cancer drug forecasted to generate 1. 4 billion in annual sales. Lets speak to our deals reporter, memo by gory. Great to have you. You have been following the process from the start. This is a huge chunk of money. Exactly. Asset and itprized is a competitive process. Blue back out of the in march, when they made an unsolicited approach that was rejected. The idea was to put a lot of pressure on investors and that happened at the beginning of the summer where they were smart we mighting in see an announcement. Francine with a lot more money. Would this be a major setback . It is indeed. They spent so much time trying to buy these assets and a rare opportunity to buy a trophy asset in concert, which is one of the hardest areas of health care. Francine thank you so much for joining us. Bloomberg; surveillance is up next. The dollar is strengthening versus its major peers, emerging markets are up a touch. This is after we had some hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve official about the likelihood of the u. S. Interest rate rise. Stanley fischer is the fed vice chair. Coming up, tom keene will be joining me from new york to kickoff the conversation with an exclusive interview with the rbs chairman. We will also be talking about negative rates. This is bloomberg. Francine a hike in 2016. Stanley fischer says the central bank is close to meeting its targets. Investors look for more clues at jackson hole this week. Indias central bank names its new governor, a quiet commentator with a hawkish view. Can you pick up where rajan left off . Rbs as negative Interest Rates sir howard davies. This is bloombergs surveillance. Tom, we have a lot of market is. Look at dollar, Stanley Fischer the only game in town today. Then we have to look at what