Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Americas 20170504

I know a lot of confusion. What is going to be and even if we get it through, what happens in the senate, if it does not like what we were talking about . Somentense time and confusion over the details. Time when different it was shelved in march. As we watched the developments, a check on how markets are trading with julie hyman. Julie we are not seeing much reaction to the Health Care Bill. Stocks mostly on earnings and energy. In the 2 the 2 big themes. That has been the case most of the day. I want to talk about health care. Health care is up a little bit, it has been up since election about 11 which is about the same the s p 500 has risen. We have a chart on bloomberg of valuation, the Health Care Index versus the s p 500, the price to earnings ratio in white and the s p 500 in blue. For much of the last several years, health care has been more expensive. That it changed and the spread on the bottom. That changed in late 2016 after the election and we see health care trade at a discount. This is the broadest a basket, it does not necessarily representative of what is going. N with the health to debate to take one group, we have been running through the different types of health care stops. Pharmaceutical stocks, we did here at one time, at least rhetoric about attacking the issue of drug pricing even though nothing seems to have materialized. Eli lilly, avid on the rise. If you look at different groups that people think may be different exposed, we are not seeing a consistent reaction. The other theme is commodities, generally. Oil is near the lows of the session down nearly 5 on continuing concerns about oversupply in the u. S. Offsetting caught cuts to production that opec might do. You have gold and copper. Gold is down, that sometimes a haven trade for folks. Copper is having the biggest twoday loss going back to to do 15 out of demand of china. This feeds a back into the stock market as we are seeing energy as the worstperforming group. We are looking at some oil producers. Some of the gas producers. Chesapeake came out with earnings that beat estimates. It looks like investors do not care. Another gas producer that is lower. Anchor thank you for that set off. Anchor a live shot of the house floor where lawmakers are set to vote on the bill to replace obamacare. Joining us is Kevin Cirilli, chief washington correspondent for bloomberg. And mr. Armstrong. Back on capitol hill, kevin hill, kevin, we have discussed the incredible tents times for the elements tense time for the administration. President trump tweeting. What are you hearing and how likely are we going to have the votes in the next 30 minutes to an hour . Kevin i spoke to representative blackburn and she think there will be a vote in the next half hour or so. What is known as statutory hall inside of the house of representatives, top political aides from the white house, Reince Priebus met with the Republican House and they all just left the room and headed to the floor were we heard from House Speaker paul ryan making an impassioned final plea of sorts to rally conservatives to advance this piece of legislation. I can say behind the scenes, privately, the white house led by President Trump and mr. Primus have been working with the Vice President s office to muster enough votes. When we see the votes role again, the magic number is 22. The amount of votes that can afford to lose within the Republican Caucus in order to keep their effort alive. President trump publicly is doing Something Different then we have seen him in the past. He is holding fire against some of the republicans who have caused some problems publicly. I want to pull up a tweet that the president tweeted out in which he said that Insurance Companies are fleeing obamacare. It is dead. Our Health Care Bill will lower premiums and be great health care. For response from john tessler, a democrat from montana about what he made from this chapter. Take a listen. I think the administration is doing everything they can do to make obamacare fail. And a so they can live up to itir prediction is that would collapse. And i think that is unfortunate. The people are the ones who are going to suffer. Kevin all attention turns to the floor. Not only attention to the democrats but republicans will have concerns about preexisting conditions and this piece of legislation was not scored by the cbo. I want to bring in general derew armstrong. Kevin showed us President Trumps tweets. It has happened in accelerated days . Insurers have to declare if you are in or out in 2018. We see a number pool out. I what is down to, they have seen a number of major exits. I. E. What is down, they have seen a major number of exits. Theres a couple of reasons that is important to understand. There has been trouble in the markets. The Trump Administration is taken proactive efforts to undermine. We may not make these payments to help poor people afforded the copays and keep of millions of americans able to cover their obamacare coverage. There is uncertainty around of the law. A lot of insurers are saying we will not fix it down and deal with volatility and take potential losses. They may come back in. The republicans and Trump Administration have taken steps to make sure it is not an easy market to be in. The preexisting conditions and a President Trump threw his and has created confusion, the suggestion was an additional 8 billion, will it be enough . To the back Congressional Budget Office has not had a look at the numbers, do they add up . That is one measure we can use to assess a, there are other private actuaries. Probably not a lot of money. If you spread out over five years in a couple of million americans, not many dollars to help people with high insurance premiums. Does is create an incentive for states to reduce protections of people knowing the money is out of there as you can boot people out of the regular pool and pick up a piece of the pie . What are the effects of the money, lastminute amendment is going to be . No one really knows. Be clearly in the senate even if it passes. President trump has been tweeting. He tweeted and said if victorious, republicans will be having a Big Press Conference at the beautiful rose garden off the white house in italy after the vote. He was due in new york later. In the rose garden after the vote. She is anticipating he is anticipating a victory. We will not have a final count. I am glad julia brought of the tweet that the president put out, one thing that is noticeable is a big contrast between the public rollout in march versus now. You said the president is holding back fire on republicans will are not going along with the bill yet. He has not said a lot to push them. He has the Vice President doing a lot. [no audio] he has not said a lot to sourh told me it is a bit unusual. Typically lawmakers are used to having a top legislative aides negotiate with the white house. Principal to principal with a lawmakers and the president directly engaging with each other. That has caused headaches. On the issue of this, clearly President Trump tweeting out the American People will hear directly from him in what he think will be a victory in about an hour. It says is the stage for a tough political battle in the senate. Very much success indusind except for getting neil supreme court. Even with that, he had to dodge senate rules. Percolate and faster because they may be able to dodge the democrats. A great part. Kevin cirilli and drew armstrong. Thank you to both. Mark crumpton. The final president ial debate in france failed to produce a knockout for marine le pen. Even her own party is preparing for defeat in sundays election. E said scoring 42 in the runoff would be a huge victory for the far right party. Polls show mccrone leading by macron leading by 22 points. We will show you results on sunday. Talks underway with a Trump Administration to keep american troops in iraq. The fight against Islamic State is over according to the u. S. And Iraqi Government sources who spoke to the associated press. And af the Prime Minister u. S. Officials believe it would be in the longterm interests of each to continue the presence. Secretary saids his department is seeking to close more than 1100 veteran affairs facilities nationwide. The secretary said the underutilized sites cost the federal government 25 million a year. He said the v. A. Will work with congress to prioritize which buildings should be shuttered. British Prime Minister theresa may expressing gratitude and good wishes to Prince Philip following the announcement of his impending retirement. Buckingham palace announced the 95 year old prince will stop carrying out public engagements sometime between now and august. In the past, he has suffered heart problems but maintained a vigorous public schedule. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i am mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Scarlet thank you. Coming up, the vote on the republican Health Care Bill has begun. The president looking ahead into a victory. He said if successful, republicans will hold a News Conference. The senate has sent a 1 trillion budget to troops the desk. It funds the government through the end of september. A 1 trillion budget to trumps desk. Skull and bank the housing scarlet the house vote for a vote for a place and repeat to repeal and replace obamacare is underway right now. [no audio] a lot of of questions on whether the bill has any chance of passing the senate in its current form. What are the biggest sticking points . A lot of republican senator senators have expressed concern about the expansion of medicaid that of obamacare instituted and some states decided to opt in. There are republicans who, that has actually benefited it has helped of them cover a lot more people and bring down health a cough and they Health Care Costs and they do not want to lose it. Probably negotiating the amount of tax credits given to help people afford their premiums. They are more agebased in this bill than under obamacare which is more incomebased. There are senators who want to take a look and try to get more to enticeeople younger, healthier consumers into the market and to help Older Americans maintain their coverage. And it will be conservatives who do not like that just was being made and we want to save money. You have this debate as well. When you are talking about the senate and how they go ahead with this. It could be very different. For sure. As in the house, the conservatives had a lot of influence of the way his bill ended up looking. In at the senate, the concerns are moderate republican concerns. There could be conservative who do not want to go alone. The conservatives and the therate who are pulling built in different directions. Scarlet lesson bring in all of her. You are looking at the markets. Lets bring in all over. What is the trend into this vote . Lets bring in oliver. It has been hard to discern. This chart, if we can pull it off, highlighting the past in this is where the American Health care act has been in the news and what happened in the Health Industry that day. When it was put in, marcus went down looking at the health care industry. When it came back, a weak day. What happened is once of the poor happened about 3 30, Health Care Stocks jumped. Around 3 30,ppened Health Care Stocks jumped. When you have a Company Light at not sync available pull out of virginia, you see what happens. Pull outy like aetna of virginia, you see what happens. Hopefully, it is clarity investors want. If at the decisions are complicated, lets get it done one way or another. Today gives a zero gives of zero clarity. We have no idea what it will look like. We have a headline showing the house has enough votes to pass the old Obamacare Repeal. It has not passed but they have the numbers. With consideration that people can change the vote. The top last night they had 218 and they needed 216. Of thehat final hit doubtful, people can change their votes. We have to watch of this. Until that final hit of the gavel, people can change in their votes. The backandforth kobe encouraging to investors and because act and the end of the day it gets pushed around. Its a looks like they passed. Its a looks like it pass. It looks like it passed. Pass it at this stage a because in have more time to debate and change it once again in the senate. , the houses passed passed the republican bill to repeal and replace obamacare. It is now moves on to the senate. 213. He vote was 217 how quickly before they can begin debate and vote . They could take it up as soon as they want to. There is a recess over the next week. It is not likely going to happen then. You was on theto house floor previously, the senate would it take it strictly to the floor and it would not go through the whole Committee Process of amending it. One thing to watch out for, we have not seen the congressional touches office score. That might take a couple of weeks. Theres a lot in the bill that has changed and the senate could likely wait. Republicans have said that is something they wanted to do. How long will it take for the Congressional Budget Office to look at it . They said 24 million more without insurance with an a decade, skyrocketing premiums for lower income and over 50. They were incredibly scathing. What do we think from what you have heard behind the scenes, what their impression is going to be in the amended bill and the passage of it . Thats a great question and depends on who you ask. Republicans who have come up with the changes think they have found a way to bring down the cost of insurance so more people will want to sign up and that 24 million coverage number would soually, it would come down fewer people would be uninsured. At the same time, if you talk to more leftleaning advocates of obamacare, they thing some of the provisions of added at the this bille and in could make insurance more expensive for certain groups, particularly those with preexisting conditions, Older Americans. And that they might cause an increase in the number of uninsured among the cbo would score. It is a gas and something everybody will be watching very closely. Cbl has indicated it will take some time. There were a lot of changes in that bill. It is a guess. The tweet from donald trump saying if they were successful, there would be a Big Press Conference at the beautiful rosengarten immediately after rose garden after. Heading over now, celebration for the Republican Party. For the short term, i shall say. For thehe short term, next week or so while congress is in a recess. President trump is supposed to come to new york tonight. He got delayed. As we look at the Market Reaction and we have not seen any discernible difference. That has not changed tremendously. You were looking at an etf that tracks Health Care Shares. It is interesting. I love the visual of the congressman getting on different buses. [laughter] the beautiful rose garden. There has been maybe not a divorce of investors intimate and health cares dots but an nteresting sort Investors Sentiment and Health Care Stocks. There is a pop that have it in november. Massive inflows, the biggest when donald trump gets elected. That kind of cash going to work means that investors probably felt the repeal of that trump, peeled appealed on wood of be next positive on would next positive. Look at Stock Performance of the have care companies, they attract the s p and not the gangbusters. They have not been part of the trump trade. A difference between what investors what were expecting and what is happening. Investors look at health care as a sector, 2, healthgo to level care technology, providers, biotech and pharma, several of those will not be directly affected. Look at the providers and servicers and buying health care in a whole is a mixed bag of thoughts. From investing perspective, you want to dig into the details. Look at particular companies. It club leader to suppliers and parts but concentrate on insurance. Covering health care from in newrg news and oliver york. Lets bring back kevin sumlin was our chief White House Correspondent Kevin Cirilli who is our chief White House Correspondent following the passage of the bill through the house. Have you managed to see him in Congress Wont buy congressman walter by . Did walk by, did they have a skip in their step . They burst into applause. This what they are seeing is a political victory. They are going to the white house, topper problems to join President Trump to address the media. I spoke with a senior aide to a prominent republican in the congress who has been really in the mix of what has been going on and told me that chairman mark meadows deserved credit for delivering representative a key conservative who ended up falling in line with the white house. And somebody very much a gift of them early on. This really did come down to a hair of a vote. I spoke with a political republican strategist who frequently works with the white house and told me point, this was supposed to be the easy part. The political reality that will set in as now is the transition into the Senate Without Congressional Budget Office score, they face an uphill battle in a convincing moderate to get on board. They will have to alter this piece of legislation. Under the flipside, the white house is very clearly looking to seize momentum as they enter into the political battle in the upper chamber. While this vote was happening, at the same time, the senate voted to keep the government open by passing a funding bill. And a measurement was advanced to walk back parts of doddfrank. A very busy day for republicans. To President Trump will try seize to capture momentum as they transition forward. Of the was the quote hour. This was supposed to be the easy part. And it wasnt. Lets bring in though White House Correspondent. Shannon, you have to expect a triumphant donald trump when he speaks. What are you expecting him to say here . I think it is highly unusual for president to have a press conference after passing the bill in one chamber. I could see the sign in or after it passed the house and senate but to do a victory lap after passing in the house is something i do not think of many other primitive would feel bold enough to do. This president is a master of message, a master of branding, a master of showmanship, visual elements to everything he does. He takes credit for job growth that could which riveted to the last administration that could beat contributive to the last administration. I am not surprised to see him do the victory lap and making a big in ais what is one step long process. And as kevin said it should have been the easy part. Certainly on orthodox. This is a president a master in messaging. Tell us about the breakdown of the vote. We understand it passed by a razor in a margin. There were republicans who voted against of the bill. Ultraconservatives and a handful of moderates who felt the bill was not the best deal. You are a lawmaker and a republican, you are heading into 2018 and following the obamacare law is very unpopular with the conservative base. If you got to more moderate districts, there are parts of the Affordable Care at incredibly popular. The issue of preexisting conditions and i put it to a republican from South Carolina about what exactly are they going to be concerned about in the senate and it comes down to preexisting conditions. Americans with insurance have a preexisting condition. One was think i cannot deliver the vote and get on board on this unless you something that will increase funds to allocate with preexisting conditions. Again, senators in the senate are telling me that 8 billion number is significantly below estimates in which and they feel it will cost anywhere from upwards of 20 billion. You will hear a lot about that and about how this bill advances without being scored by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. Procedurally speaking, that matters. The white house has not had to work with the senate with the exception of getting neil gorsuch confirmed to the supreme court. They had to deploy the nuclear option. There is only so much finagle and they can do in order to the bodyhis through without making policy compromises. Ive read in North Carolina takes up 1. 5 billion of the 8 billion to put that into perspective. One in four people had preexisting conditions that beforet covered obamacare came in to. Those two statistics for me tell the story incredibly well. How are they going to get around this and more money . What will it cost to get something through the senate . What is your take . Feels thatnistration they will be able to offset any cost through economic growth. Are so bullishy to get through Health Care Reform because they want to give it to other items like tax policy. The other point is is that, this is the president will voted into the white house was voted into the white house for a new coalition all white workingclass voters. These are the same people who benefited from obamacare and were able to that health insurance. However, middleclass voters, in particular, if you look at polling, suggested that one of the reasons they went for President Trump in the recent election was because of the rising cost of premiums and thats what the white house care any type of Health Reform will do lose lower the cost of premiums. Democrats are very much against it. They feel like it will ultimately leading to higher premiums and ultimately lead to more confusion and hurt americans who need access to health care and it needed the most. Campaigning for the midterms has already started. Especially when they go home to recess and face constituents. A victory for House Speaker paul ryan even though it is the third time is the charm and for congressman upton who proved to be influential in this vote. When the bill goes to the senate of a will be the senator the white house is targeting to turn him or her to their side . Shannon that is a great question. Fence, you would have Susan Collins off maine who said she does not want any defunding of planned parenthood involved. And members on the far right of this who have their own set of issues. The cbo score is not out yet. It will be. There is nothing in this bill that shows it will be any different as far as coverage in the number of people, the twitter for me people who will lose coverage. It does not do anything to a dress that. The 24 Million People who will lose coverage. It does not do anything to address that. Down for go middleclass people were younger and they will see their premiums go down. Older people who are lower income will see their premiums ago way up. Their interest groups, aarp, hospitals, every major doctors group, insurers and the former companys hat former companies have been on the sideline but have not endorsed the bill. Once at they put pressure in their own ways on senators, i think it opens up a whole new ballgame in anybodys guess some the original bill, peoples that will be dead on arrival in the senate. I do not see any change in that makes it look like it has a better chance. They made me to start from scratch. Then you have to take a back to the house and here we are again. Cirilli, old of you get to the press conference. We cannot wait to see what it brings. Bring in congressional reporter joining us from capitol hill. Shannon mentioned perhaps the senate might need to start from scratch because so many senators do not like the bill that was passed in the house. What are you hearing . I talked to several senators who said the senate will write its own bill. They will not pick up the house bill and have a few amendments, they will try to craft their own substitute. Including a member of the leadership. They key is this bill is unpopular. Not lay it is coming over with fanfare. They are looking at polls and complaints. They want to that will be more popular and safe or them to vote on. I spoke to lisa murkowski. She wants to start over with a clean slate. She is not even on all of the tax cuts. Its repealed tax increase. She is much more interested in lowering premiums and having the money go to tax credits and have it go to providers so you can bring down premiums. There is a sense of momentum they need to do something in a state like alaska where that only have one provider and foriums are around 30,000 some people with a big deductibles. These are problems they want to solve but the house bill probably is going to be completely rewritten from scratch and if they lose any three senators, if they form a government a group, they cannot pass anything. You also have conservative senators like ted cruz wants to bring in a totally different direction. Forgive the british part, what was the point of that pr exercise for donald trump and the administration . A lot of senators i talked to took they the house actions of the senate could take it. The senate could not move its a bill. That is done and that can start working on a bill. Also, it is critical to the leadership of paul ryan. Beens mind, he has not be grohl that long. He is young. He does not have a lot of winds. She has not been speaker that along. He does not have a lot of wins. People wanted him still deliver. Said i have passed it now it is the senates problem. Hopefully, we can get something done. You have a conference in it is going to take some time. You cannot create a new Health Care Bill in a week. It will probably take a few weeks in the senate and possibly longer. And keep in mind, we do not have Congressional Budget Office a new senate. E that is something that will need for they take anything. Ryan to lie down in a darkened room after this. Stephen dennis, thank you. We got a message from Mitch Mcconnell from david gura saying the status quote status quo and unacceptable and we want to repeal and replace this failed a law. The senateat perhaps would have to start from scratch. Absolutely. Lets get your check of the markets. The Health Care Sector for sector spider report. And you talked about it earlier. We are not necessarily seeing much reaction depending on where you look within health care. Overall, this etf is up by 0. 5 . Has nothinging to to do with the aca but earnings. A mattress was burned in, the joint Distribution Company leading gains. The drug Distribution Company leading gains. Updraft, all of these are really powering the xl the h xlv higher we have been watching subgroups. One is a medical devices. That is because there were certain reimbursement rules that changed under the aca that may change under the acch. If you look at some of these medical Device Companies, we are seeing declines that may be linked to some concerns about what the reimbursement rules will be under new legislation. Been watching hospitals because particularly hospitals exposed areas with a more low income, uncovered by insured residents and their reimbursement rates will change under the acch. We are seeing a mixed trade. Community health is higher. Universal health and life point, art trading lower are trading lower. Theres none this early a clear trade. Where you will probably not see reaction is the big Insurance Companies that are not really as affected up by any changes. Thank you for that. Julie hyman with our sector spider report. Lets talk about oil. 5 doubleown around plunging below 46 a barrel. Move as opec prepares to move later this month in vienna to decide to extend cuts. For more insight, lets bring in a michael malone. Me for asking the obvious, does opec have anything to do with this downing in oil . They will come out and Say Something as positive as they can. The latest decline is of the Bigger Picture reflecting of what is happening oversupply. Oversupply markets, always go down easier and that is what is happening. You have a chart you brought with you. Certainly, would you look at the move in oil prices, the yellow line, we are hitting the 45 level. We like round numbers. And certainly come a level people are looking at. Positioning has a lot to do with it. That is the key. One of the key things that has kept us defensive is there is too many hedge funds, the market is so bullish at 55, what it needs to do is get bearish, maybe 45. I would say the first line in the sand because of thats where the markets was before the initial opec cut. Liquidate a few it may be that bearish and probe the lower end of the range which i think it is doing. You mentioned supply but. The bugaboo for the last year and a half of the it is not new news. And it is not new news. The reality. What i got a sense for, too many analysts focusing on the trees for for it is the force that matters. We need consumption. It is the forest that matters. It on the will show screen. Department of energy estimates. , consumption has to exceed production. Until that happens for decent period of time, markets oversupply and in the u. S. Is coming on board with more and more supply. Does notmand picture change all that much when we got the latest gdp where the First Quarter was not that great. The paradigm shift. Every car has better malic and we are using less petroleum. Mileage and we are using less petroleum. It has repercussions for the fed and lower crude is a risk indicator. So far, the Stock Market Holding up. Farther south can oil go in the next two days . The next two days, 45. I am afraid the market may have to probe into a 30 handle. Maybe 39. Get people baird up and a short. From what opec dutch promote opec and say we need to do something. Thank you. Julia . The energy sector. A big push to become part of a regional hub to supply turkey and europe with natural gas. They are taking bids for new offshore fields. Joining us is yuval steinitz. Thank you for joining us. As we mentioned, hugely exciting time for the energy space in israel. Why are you here in new york and who are you speaking to . Yuval steinitz we have no better friends and the world. It is always important to encourage potentially investors because it will be the next big thing in petroleum. We are self sufficient and natural gas and most of our power stations from coal. We have a lot of extra gas and we will export gas to the vicinity and maybe egypt as well. And the market is more ambitious. Pipeline stretching from israel to italy will be the longest and deepest natural gas pipeline in the world. Gasill enable us to export over the Eastern Mediterranean directly to western new york. This is the joining from the israeli point of view taking into account. We have been deprived of Natural Resources and now were becoming an energy player. Hugely pivotal for israel and europe because it would have a on reducing your reliance on russian gas asset this moment which would be important. What are you hearing from the europeans and how quickly could you get a underway . Yuval steinitz there was a meeting with the Energy Commissioner and the commissioner of italy and cyprus and we signed some kind of a memorandum of understanding of intention about the this pipeline. Israel was embraced by italy and of the European Union and i am almost quoted as very reliable source of energy for the European Union. The unreliable russians. Yuval steinitz the europeans and need replacement. The natural gas belongs to norway, holland and britain. It is on the decline. Israel will be a replacement for the natural gas. The turkishbout pipeline because i hear concern, i hear your producers what to supply gas at higher price than they are providing israel domestically with which is a bit of a sticking point. Willy babe to put pressure on the producers to make this deal work . No, we are not going to interfere business to business. Provide cheaper gas that was the israelis already what the israelis already market. You have leverage . Yuval steinitz it should be business to business. We have already conducted talks with the turkey government. Somea pipeline needs Government Support for both sides. We business to business, leave and for the business sector and am confident the business sector knows how to work. To ask you about President Donald Trump as well as i am sure you are aware, the palestinian president was also here in the United States and the last day or so. Donald trump stood with him and done,we will get this she was talking about a p deal. Do you share his confidence he was talking about a peace deal. Do you share his confidence . Yuval steinitz to be open with you, the political leader abbas is not a reliable partner for peace. He is the most antisemitic leader in the world. Should be messengers distressing or a letter should be destroyed sooner or later. Those messages are in the system. And unable to deliver. For 10 yearsected now. He does not control half of the palestinians. Also toefore, looking the turmoil all over the middle east, the whole middle east donald trump is naive . Yuval steinitz i did not say so. Nobody is really able offer able to offer israel genuine peace. This a bloomberg markets. Lets take a break from Health Care Look to the april jobs report due out tomorrow. Economist are looking for 190,000 to be added to payroll. Lets hear from our chief economist. Double in almost march which was 98,000. Are we off to the races . That is at the ks. Potentially so impact, we had the severe winter storm. In the northeast, a significant impact. It seems to have a packet the march jobs report. And this other effect from favorable weather in january and february which mayo pulled construction and outdoor theoyment earlier to quarter. It looks like the april report is revision to trend and the trend is between 170,000, 190,000. Scarlet if you look at whisper customersur terminal can enter their predictions. They have 180,000. We are below 200,000. A little bit of a glitch with a number because easter week happened to be the same week as the employment survey. Some schools and businesses tend to be on spring break. On the rare occasions were easter weekend and survey week, there tends to be a bias. If we step back and look at the trends in hiring, they are robust but they have been losing some momentum and at the last couple of months. That seems to be the trend and i do not think it will reverse until we see significant economic acceleration. Indoes not mean the payback relation to q1 of but underlying 2 growth rate needs to pick up. Julia the fed, we are still on track for a hike. Payrolls tohas 2 absorb before they make the decision. The fed have seen payroll numbers of 150,000 to 200,000 that will keep them on track for the june rate hike. Wenteto focus on, what wrong in q1 was the fact that the Consumer Spending flopped into the new year. We need Consumer Spending to happen,and for that to we need to see Household Income creation is on sturdy footing. We look beyond the payroll change and look at the product of workers, hours and average and that tells what the income trend is. We know Consumer Spending will bounce back. Economistto our chief at we will have complete coverage of the april jobs report starting at 8 30 a. M. Tomorrow. Hnr guest will be gary co tomorrow on bloomberg. Much more on health care. President trump is due to speak at the white house. He said earlier if a victorious, a bigicans will be having press conference at the rose garden. Stay tuned for those remarks. Expected to be interesting. This is bloomberg. Did you know slow internet can actually hold your business back . Say goodbye to slow downloads, slow backups, slow everything. Comcast business offers blazing fast and reliable internet thats over 6 times faster than slow internet from the phone company. Say hello to internet speeds up to 250 mbps. And add phone and tv for only 34. 90 more a month. Call today. Comcast business. Built for business. Hey youve gotta see this. Cno. N. Alright, see you down there. Mmm, fine. Okay, what do we got . Okay, watch this. Do the thing we talked about. What do we say . Its going to be great. Watch. Remember what we were just saying . Go irish see that . Yes im gonna just go back to doing what i was doing. Find your awesome with the xfinity x1 voice remote. 2 00 p. M. In new york, 8 00 p. M. In london. Im julia chatterley. Scarlet i am scarlet fu. Welcome to bloomberg markets. Julia live and bloomberg will headquarters in new york over the next hour and cover stories london, and, washington. Lets get to the top stories on bloomberg and from around the world. As promised, President Trump is set to speak at the white house rose garden this hour after House Republicans got just enough votes to pass the Health Care Bill. We will bring you his remarks live. Later this hour we will get fresh reaction from the ceo of the permanente medical group, responsible for the health care of 10 million americans. And in markets, crude prices feeling the pain today. We will explain how it is dragging down stocks as Energy Producers dropped the most in months. We are one hour from the close of trading. Lets check on the markets with julie hyman. Overall, we are not seeing a lot of change today, and that is the case for much of the day. We have a bit of a push and pull going on. We have healthcare stocks rising along with financials, which have been gaining along with bond yields. That is the push and pull we are seeing. After the Health Care Shares, lets dig in to it a little bit. What weve been watching during this vote has been a couple of groups in particular within health care. Among them the Health Care Shares seen as more exposed to medicare funding. They are trading in different directions. Not much clear direction and guidance on that even after the vote. As for the hospital operators potentially exposed, these are both trading higher. There may potentially be optimism on a couple of fronts. , that the Senate Version of this bill the senate is looking to revive this thing entirely might be more favorable in terms of the reimbursement rates for hospitals or changes to medicaid funding. There also might be a view that the bill is not going to get past at all. It is unclear exactly what is behind investors buying. I want to get to a chart i can get to earlier, the Spider Health care etf. The price is here in white. The ratio outstanding of puts to bullishearish vs. Options activity, is spiking. That happened several weeks ago. That is the most bearish since the election. Voteirst Obamacare Repeal canceled, not showing much change. In the ramp up to this vote, more bearish options activity. As it is not translated into shareprice specifically. Crude oil is falling to his lows of the session. The declines have been remarkably study and the Big Oil Majors are falling. The biggest drags on the s p 500. One more story today that has gotten short shrift because of Everything Else going on. Facebook coming out late yesterday cautioning about and sales. 4 of ashares down 3 percent. Tesla shares down. And viacom on the most expensive tier pricing, meaning perhaps a hit to viewership numbers. Scarlet cant forget those earnings. Back to the top story of the day, the house passing the gop Health Care Bill, successfully voting for the regular replacement of obamacare. The president will hold a News Conference of 3 30 p. M. Eastern time at the rose garden. We will bring you there when it begins to we want to bring in a team of reporters at the white house. Margaret talev, senior White House Correspondent. Kapur, National Political reporter. And jason gorman of bloomberg intelligence. The vote passed the house and it goes to the senate, where the republicans hold a slim majority. What needs to happen before the Senate Begins consideration of its own bill, whether it starts from scratch or takes of the house bill . Sahil a little bit of context the bill passed 270213 votes. 2 fewer votes than a house and this would have gone down in defeat. Paul ryan had a margin of 21 votes and he lost 20. Mitch mcconnell has 2 votes you can lose. This will be an uphill slog to get this to the senate, with moderate senators who seemed less likely to budge on priorities including medicaid spending, making sure subsidies dont harm people in. Some of the numbers include conservatives like tom cotton in arkansas and shelley cap it out capito in west virginia. Senators need to agree on a version of the house bill they can agree on. That will not be an easy feat. I spoke to the chairman of the Republican Study Committee in the house, who says if there are dramatic changes to the bill in the senate, it will have real problems in the house. This is an important step in just the beginning of what is likely to be a very long slog towards replacing the law. Julia margaret, i want to bring you in as well. What is the Congressional Office going to say as well, when we get to that point . All the suggestion at this point is they dont have a real view on what the arrangement is going to be like, what the mathematics are at this moment. Surely should count as the senate is negotiating this. Margaret thats right. The cbo score, not ready in time for todays vote, and house leaders were counting on that, but will be in time for the senate debate, will be instructed in projections on how many people this is going to affect and who it is going to increase or decrease. We will get the parameters that help explain and inform the debate in the senate going forward. It may not be all the answers but more than a half now. There are many reasons for termination going forward. Today in the white house, unmistakable day of celebration. The president postponed his departure to new york in order to make at least a statement. We saw the chief of staff Reince Preibus over at the house of representatives in the cloak room and trying to make sure this went down the way it was supposed to. Trump, day 106 or wherever you are in his presidency, it is in many ways that 100day celebration he ped that she hoped to have celebration he loved to have. This is the big peace and what they see as the that legislative the beginning of proof that legislative action is possible on their promises. This is the first one it comes and they become the steps towards that. Julia we are showing pictures of House Republicans gathering ahead of President Trumps speech, Milling Around and waiting for him. I want to ask you, the danger of him talking here, to be honest. He made comments about preexisting conditions which seemed to throw everything into disarray this week. What are the risks that if he takes a q a someone asked him about how this could change and he makes further promises that create havoc when the senate tries to negotiate this . Margaret he has been on record several times not just during the campaign but the opening days of his administration and as recently as this week, with essentially a rhetorical guarantee that if you are sick or have a preexisting condition , whether republicans do to modify the actual not put you in a precarious or vulnerable position. That is not necessarily square with the ironclad guarantees in the house legislation. This is the beginning of the process and i wont sign anything if it is not good for sick people. He has fought himself an entire debate through the senate and final passage but it is almost inconceivable to think that if both chambers of congress were to somehow reach an agreement and pass the bill, after all that President Trump wouldnt sign it. The debate really just moved to thesenate in terms of storable details that affect the specific theres only other economic factors to look at states and what insurers want but on this basic thing of voters who support trump, if you are sick and never preexisting condition, what will the ultimate legislation do and how does that affect you . President trump has tried his own political reputation and every swing state republicans reputation to that question. Schumer we have chuck out saying that the health bill is going nowhere fast in the senate. Great to chat with you, margaret talev. Scarlet lets bring in jason gorman from princeton. You cover medical services for bloomberg intelligence. We know there is a bit of urgency when the house acted to pass the bill because insurers had them withdrawing from virginia aetna from to how active have insurers in in gauging with congress through this process . Thank you for having me. I think the insurers have made a lot of noise in the last 12 to 18 months about losing money on unitedhealth and humana largely exiting by 2018. There are others talking about doing it as well over the next 12 four to six weeks we should have more clarity on that. In the First Quarter we heard that the claims were running a bit high again. Exchanges will continue to be a theme for insurers and not really making money aside from 17. Scarlet not really making money aside from 17. What about medical Device Companies . Where did they stand and how were they positioned here as the bill heads to the senate . Jason for medical Device Companies, the thought was that having so many extra people covered, 20 Million People covered, would boost procedure volumes. Deductibles have gone up almost 200 in the last 10 years. Wage growth has been about 15 . Procedures have been not listed at all. Companies,ice theyre hoping that the tax gets repealed but they really dont know yet if that is going to happen in the senate bill. For them it is sort of neutral. Julia coming back to this idea of giving some sort of tax relief to offset the changes in cost. It comes back to financing. How easy for the government do you think it is to offset those 2 things . Jason i think a lot of what they like to do is cut reimbursement rates for the hospitals, and that is why a lot of the provider groups out there with the american medical association, American Hospital association have been opposed to the bill that was passed today, as well as reducing coverage for medicaideligible individuals. That is away way this bill is set up and why there is a lot of opposition. What ends up happening is in the senate and what they decide to dont cutefully they so much coverage, hospitals usually take the biggest hit, and they reacted yesterday because the news leaked out on twitter. People digested at this point and now looking at the senate, feeling that this is a much tougher road, and todays vote was in a huge step for people investing. Wasnt a huge step for people investing. Scarlet stephen denis, the congressional reporter on capitol hill, telling us that there are members of the senate who want to start a fresh, fresh version of the bill rather than taking up the house version. If that is the case, are there works in progress they can begin from . Who would be the author of such a bill on the senate side . Sahil i think the way has to the procedurally is that builder has send them over under the reconciliation process, taken up and that could they can swap it out and replace it with other with whatever bill they want and start afresh and put something new in place of that, or they can put in a package of amendments and change specific aspects that they want changed. I think ultimately the answer for being a technicality. What they have to do is find a way to achieve a Health Care Bill that at least 50 republicans can get behind. Democrats will not get on board with this. Republicans only have 52 votes in the chamber. That is what the discussions right now are happening. The point person on this is going to be senator orrin hatch of utah, who just put out a statement moments after the house Health Care Bill passed saying that in the senate we have to focus on the art of the doable. There are expectations in the senate because they dont want to over hype the prospect of this happening. Having said all of that, this is something republicans have promised in every election in the last seven years. They want a house and senate and white house on this promise. Won the house and senate and white house on this promise. There is a will to get a yes. Scarlet were looking with the gannett live shots of the white whererose garden, julia, the president has promised to make an appearance. He is essentially taking a victory lap after the bill was passed in house. As Shannon Pettypiece said, it is quite unusual for someone to give themselves a half on the back after the bill passes one chamber of congress. This is not yet law. Not even halfway there. If this will ultimately feel like a hollow victory given what is yet to come. Sahil, i want to ask you a question, because im looking through Mitch Mcconnells statement and we look at the challenges, whether it is financial, budgetary, procedural, and there is a line in his statement saying that the Senate Consideration effectively is going to be scheduled following completion of procedural and budgetary scorekeeping reviews. What does this mean and practice for the timing of upon which the senate can look at this and pass something . Sahil in fact this means the senate will not vote on the bill without a cbo score on the final provisions. Six issa go with the last time the cbo put out a score on the bill and six weeks ago was the last time this year put out a score on the bill. The 8 billion addition to money for schools and treatment for conditions to do with that we dont know what the cbo score is on that and how it will be affected. The last cbo score six iesco projected 24 million americans will lose coverage on the under this bill and the deficit will go down by 150 billion. That is what the cbo has said so far. It would be a trillion dollar tax cut mostly for upper earners. That is what we do know that what mcconnells statement suggested is that the senate will not go forward without knowing what this means. It also suggested that the senate will not vote on something, and amended package come without knowing the full consequences. Democrats voted many times on many iterations in 2009 and 2010 of the Health Care Bill and they always had a cbo score. It is remarkable that the house did something this big without a full cbo score on it. Julia remarkable is the accurate word there. Showing you the rose garden we just show you pictures of House Speaker paul ryan. He the most relief relieved man in the United States . Scarlet probably is. And there is President Trump. Julia donald trump moving towards the center scarlet savoring the victory. Julia savoring is a great word. Scarlet pat on the back from kevin mccarthy. House Speaker Paul Ryan there. Everyone is looking relieved. A hollow victory i keep coming back to this point. All the challenges to come, but right now it is smiles all around. Scarlet Vice President mike pence he is speaking at the rose garden. Lets listen in as he gets ready to introduce President Trump. Chairwomanent pence mcmorris rodgers, chairman brady, chairman walden, chairwoman black, congressman macarthur, congressman meadows, and all the principal members of congress who are standing with us here today, on behalf of President Donald Trump and the first family, welcome to the white house. [applause] Vice President pence and thanks of the leadership of President Donald Trump, welcome to the beginning of the end of obamacare. [cheers and applause] president pence it was ago, 2010, 7 years democrats passed the government takeover of health care, and republicans in congress promised the American People the law would not stand. Today, thanks to the perseverance, the determination, and the leadership of President Donald Trump, and all the support of those gathered here, we have taken an historic first step to repeal and replace obamacare and finally give the American People the kind of health care at a deserved. The kind of health care they deserve. [applause] today,esident pence so with heartfelt gratitude for all he has done to keep his word to the American People, and for all to makedo to continue America Great again, it is my high honor and distinct privilege to introduce to you the president of the United States of america, President Donald Trump. And applause] President Trump thank you. Thank you. Thank you, mike. Thats the group. Thank you. Thank you very much. This really is the group. What a great group of people. And they are not even doing it for the party. They are doing it for this we sufferedause with obamacare. I went through 2 years of campaigning and im telling you, no matter where i went, people were suffering so badly with the ravages of obamacare, and i will say this, that as far as im concerned, the premiums. To come down. We will get this passed through the senate. I feel so confident. Your deductibles, when it comes to deductibles, they were so ridiculous that nobody got to , thiseir current plan nonexistent plan that i heard so many wonderful things about over the last three or four days, after that, i dont think you are going to hear some much right now. The insurance committees are fleeing. It has been a catastrophe and this is a great plant also and this is a great plan. I think it will get even better, and make no mistake, this is over this is our repeal and replace of obamacare. Make no mistake about it. No mistake. [applause] President Trump and most importantly, yes, premiums will be coming down. Deductibles will be coming down. Very importantly, its a great plan. We knew it wasnt going to work. I predicted in a lifetime ago, i said it is failing. And now it is obvious it is failing. It is essentially dead. If we do not pay lots of money to the Insurance Companies it would die immediately. What we have is something very, very, incredibly wellcrafted. Tell you what, there is a lot of talent standing behind me. Unbelievable amount of talent. That i can tell you. I mean it. [applause] President Trump and coming from a different world and only being a politician for a short period of time how my doing . In my doing ok . Am i doing ok . Im president can you believe it . I thought you would need more time, they always solid, but we didnt. We have an Amazing Group of people standing behind me. They worked so hard and so long. Lets do this, lets go out, short little shots for each one of us and lets say how good this plan is. We dont have to talk about unbelievable victory we dont have to say it again. It is going to be an unbelievable victory when we get into the senate and so much spirit there. , and after the list goes, if they dont talk too some of thel let other folks, up and say whatever you want. We want to brag about the plan because this plan really uh oh. [laughter] [indiscernible] President Trump we make. We may. We are going to talk a little bit about the plan, some of the great features. I want to thank paul ryan. He has worked so hard. [applause] President Trump i was joking you know, paul, for the last week ive been hearing paul ryan doesnt have it, it isnt working with paul ryan, then today im hearing paul ryan is a genius. [laughter] President Trump the groups of all come together. The tuesday group, so many groups, the freedom caucus, and they are all great people. We have a lot of groups. Really, paul, in the last three or four days, especially in the last day, i see mark, kevin, so many people, we have developed a bond. As much as we have come up with a really Incredible Health care plan, this has brought the Republican Party together. We are going to get this finished and then we are going as you know, with put out tax plan in, the biggest tax cut in the history of our country. I used to say the biggest since ronald reagan. Now it is bigger than that. Lso, pure tax reform we are to get that done next. And this really helps a lot of people said, how come you kept pushing health care, knowing how tough it is . Dont forget, obamacare took 17 months. Hillary clinton tried so hard, valiantly, in all fairness, to get health care through. Didnt happen. We have been doing this for eight weeks, if you think about it, and this is a real plan, this is a great plan, and we had no support from the other party. I just want to introduce somebody to say a few words who really has been, i think, treated very unfairly, but it no longer matters because we won and we are going to finish it off and we are going to go on to a lot of other things, and we are going to have a tremendous for years and maybe even more years,ntly, tremendous 8 but we are going to start off with just a great first year, say aul ryan, come up and few words. Congratulations on a job well done. [applause] rep. Ryan thank you, guys. Thank you. First, thank you, mr. President. Thank you for your leadership. [applause] too many there are people today who played such an Important Role in helping us get to this part, but i want to think of a few people in particular. Chairman greg walden, kevin brady, diane black, pete sessions, and the numbers of their committees for all the hard work they put in getting us to this point. [applause] rep. Ryan i want to thank all the other members who contributor to making this the best bill possible. It was a collaborative, consensusdriven effort. I want to thank the team at the white house. Come ito thank tom price want to thank mick mulvaney, and i especially want to thank Reince Preibus. We could not have done this without you gentlemen. You guys are the best. [applause] of course, this would not have been possible if it werent for these two derailment behind me. This is the fourth president s 2 gentlemen behind me. This is the fourth presidency ive served with and ive never seen any kind of engagement like this. I want to thank mike pence and Donald Trump Personal involvement getting us to where we are at thank you, gentlemen. [applause] today was a big day but it is just one step in this process, an important step. Have a lot of work to do to get this signed into law, and i know our friends in the senate are eager to get to work. [laughter] rep. Ryan they are. We will see that work through. You know why we are going to see this work through . The issues are just too important, the stakes are just too high. The problems facing American Families are real. And the problems facing American Families as a result of obamacare are just too dire and urgent. Just this week, we learned of another state, iowa, where the last remaining Health Care Plan is pulling out of 94 of their 99 counties, leaving most of their citizens with no plans on the all. Market at what kind of protection is obamacare if there are no plans to choose from . This is a trend we are seeing all across the country. The truth is, this law has failed and is collapsing. Premiums are skyrocketing and choices are disappearing. It is only getting worse, spiraling out of control. That is why we have to repeal this law and put in place a real, vibrant marketplace with competition and lower premiums for families. That is what the American Health care act is all about. It makes health care more affordable. It takes care of our most vulnerable. It shifts power from washington back to the states and most accordingly, back to you, the patient. Like i said, weve got a lot of work to do, but one thing is clear republicans are committed to keeping our promise, to lift the burden of obamacare from the American People and put in place a better more patientcentered system. It is my pleasure at this time to thank and welcome to the stage someone who helped make this possible, our very talented majority leader, kevin mccarthy. [applause] mccarthy i remember the very first time i came down here to see the new president , President Trump. We talked about health care. You know what the president said . Lets not make this partisan. Dont do what you think is right for the Republican Party. Do what is right for the marking country for the american country. Today that is exactly what we did. It recently read the papers from this week, you take politics out of it, and you put people before politics, how do you look in the politics. How do you look in the faces of 94 counties in iowa they will have no choice. How do you care for preexisting conditions when there is no care at all . Before you read the paper yesterday and you look at Insurance Companies pulling out of virginia . Or tennessee, 16 copies with no care. Counties with. What about those families that paid into coops . And theem collapsed only answer that the American Government gives them is a penalty. If you sadly look at the facts, more people took the penalty or the exemption then actually signed up for obamacare. I do not run to this office to promote a party, iran for this office i ran for this office to make the country better. It would be easy to say no. It would be easy to watch it collapse