From dublin. Im stephen sackur. Ireland has bounced back from the financial crisis of 2008, but now it is being swept by a new wave of apprehension. This time its all about brexit. Because when britain leaves the European Union, ireland will suffer significant Collateral Damage in terms ofjobs, trade, and the status of its borders. My guest today is irelands foreign and trade minister, charles flanagan. Will brexit have catastrophic consequences across the irish sea . Charles flanagan, welcome to hardtalk. Thank you. Let me begin with some words from your boss, the Prime Minister, he says brexit broke were present the greatest economic and social challenge to this island in 50 yea rs. Challenge to this island in 50 years. He said that sometime ago, not after the british referendum. Do you feel that way about brexit today . Yes. It is potentially very damaging for the today . Yes. It is potentially very damaging forthe uk, today . Yes. It is potentially very damaging for the uk, for europe and for ireland. It certainly wasnt the result we expected or wanted. We are very disappointed. But we have to deal with the cards now played. This is potentially very damaging for the equilibrium of europe. The market of 550 million people, the great peace project of many years standing. With ireland, as the nearest neighbours of the uk, in the event of there being negative consequences we are most likely here to suffer most. That must make you very angry, doesnt it . Here you are, unable really to have an influence over an event which could be catastrophic for you and your country . We are not so for you and your country . We are not so much angry as disappointed. Thats why in the contest of the negotiations that are about to begin we are anxious to impress upon everybody, our friends we are anxious to impress upon everybody, ourfriends in the uk, family in the eu, that this needs to be handled in an orderly manner context. Some of the preliminary jousting has not been in that direction. That said, we have to look forward now to the negotiations being conned at it in a way that ensures that the parties that remained remain on the table and this challenge is dealt in a way that ensures there is a deal at the end. Lets talk about some specifics. Lets talk with your trade minister hat on, as well as Foreign Minister hatt. You more than anybody else in ireland idsa are aware of the reliance of ireland on the 2 way trade of the uk. Your own Economic Forecasters say that if there is a hard brexit it is going to cost your Economy Tens Of Thousands of jobs, possibly to cost your Economy Tens Of Thousands ofjobs, possibly 4 of gdp over the next ten years, if not more. Its an absolute disaster. This is one of the greatest challenges that we have faced as the state since our independence in the 19205. State since our independence in the 1920s. Certainly the challenge of my generation and i believe it is important therefore that the irish priorities are very much to the fore in the context of these negotiations. You are right about oui negotiations. You are right about our trade. We are very much reliant on our neighbours in terms of how angry food and beverage sector in particular. Food and beverage. But we havent had all of our eggs in one basket. 0ur but we havent had all of our eggs in one basket. Our membership of the eu has ensured that we have diversify in terms of our markets and where you speak very highly about our Trade Relationship with britain, our Trade Relationship with oui britain, our Trade Relationship with our european colleagues is twice that. But thats not to say i am by no means underscoring or underplaying our relationship with britain. This is what you said recently. You said on Brexit Resolving Irish issues is absolutely crucial and the eu and the uk must show real and positive goodwill because, this is the key phrase, no deal, you said, is not an option. Pate ntly no deal, you said, is not an option. Patently no deal is an option because theresa may has told us that she would rather walk away with no deal than sign up to a bad deal. Yes, but i think undoubtedly the worst of all relationships between the uk and the European Union is no deal, because that would mean a reversal back to old trade routes Andi Reversal back to old trade routes and i cant see how that could be appropriate or suitable or advantageous to britain and neither would it be to europe. It certainly would it be to europe. It certainly would be the ireland because your Livestock Producers would be killed by that. So much of their trade is with the uk and if, as i understand it, you averted to a wto rules and ta riffs it, you averted to a wto rules and tariffs on meat exports irelands industry would be decimated. And also looking beyond trading terms of politics. No deal in the event of there being Nuclear Withdrawalfrom there being Nuclear Withdrawalfrom the talks, what happens to uk citizens in their millions . What happens to be citizens in their Hundreds Of Thousands Enjoying Life and the benefits of the uk . To my mind, a walk out is a difficulty that would not result in a settle m e nt that would not result in a settlement and that the worst of all options and thats why again i have just as the need of all parties to ensure that the process commences in an orderly way, with a set agenda. And from the irish perspective, one of our priorities must be that there is as close as possible relationship between the uk and the eu. In essence, you are saying to your european colleagues who are dealing with the brexit file, please dont have the mindset of punishing britain, because if you punish britain, because if you punish britain you are actually going to punish ireland as well. Acknowledging the irish priorities has been myjob in the ministry. I have a constitutional duty to the irish people to protect their interests and what ive been saying to my eu colleagues is that this should not be a punishment beating. This should not be exactly retribution on any of its members, in particular the uk, leaving the family. This needs to be dealt with in an orderly manner by acknowledging that is a very serious challenge and a proper mess. acknowledging that is a very serious challenge and a proper mess. If one is to get to the specifics of the challenges, perhaps the biggest of all is what on earth to do about the more than 400 kilometre long border between your country and Northern Ireland, which of course is a partner of the uk. What is going to happen on that border . Are there going to be border posts, Walls Offence is and Customs Officials checking every person and vehicle crossing your border with Northern Ireland . We dont want our relationship, the relationship between the uk and ireland, which has been carefully nurtured over the past number of years, with particular reference to the Peace Process and with particular Process To East Fife and west relations and between dublin between dublin and and ireland. We dont want anything to happen that would disrupt or damage that relationship. What something is happening that is disrupting all of that and it is called brexit and you have to live with reality. It is going to happen and you are going to have to cope with it and it does mean after britain has left and the reason they says there will be no membership of the single market, or the customs union, there will have to be a meaningful border between your country and Northern Ireland. One of the most critical elements of these negotiations, and it was identified by Prime Minister may and by the commissioner, in fact by all of the dispatches leading up to the start of the negotiations, unique and particular circumstances on the island of ireland have been appreciated and acknowledged. We have enjoyed whats been an open border since the Peace Process, since the Historic Good friday Peace Agreement of 1998, and i believe it is essential in the context of these negotiations that the open border remains as is. How can it . Of course it will be a challenge. How can it . Lets negotiate matters forward and thats why i am pleased that the chief negotiator is on the border. Ive had the Luxembourg Foreign minister at the border a few weeks ago. I believe it is important that eu leaders and negotiators see the critical progress that has been made in terms of people to people relations and peace on the island of ireland. Do you believe it is tenable at possible that border posts and fences could go up along the border . I say no to border posts and no defences. But im not saying anything fundamentally different to what i appear in from Prime Minister may, what i appear in from Prime Minister ay, what i appear in from Prime Minister may, may, and from the foreign secretary. We have to work with the eu to make sure that the open border between ireland and Northern Ireland remains. Many people cross every day to work, to go to school, families, that doesnt include sporting and cultural pursuits. But Open Border Is cultural pursuits. But Open Border Is the loss of the Open Border Is a loss. The idea that Northern Ireland could in some way get special dispensation, whatever the wider agreement between the uk and eu in terms of customs, Northern Ireland could in essence be the same customs area as your country. If that were to be the case, the defa cto, that were to be the case, the defacto, Real Trade Border between the island of ireland and the rest of the uk would be the irish sea and it would be at airports that the real regulation and monitoring and checking would take place, going into the rest of the uk. Is that possible from your Point Of View . |j am not going to get into the endgame now, but in two years i think it is important that we have whatever framework to ensure that the Peace Process on the island of ireland is not disrupted, but the very positive Trading Relations between the North And South is a disrupted and we can make sure the border is open. That would mean looking at checks for goods and services and that they can ta ke goods and services and that they can take place in a way that doesnt disrupt traffic between ireland, the North And South. When we talk about the Peace Process it is important to note the positive role the eu had in framing that Peace Process and it is another reason why i very much regret and i am is another reason why i very much regretand i am is bad another reason why i very much regret and i am is bad and the withdrawal of the uk from the eu. When i acknowledge the role eu played in having a Peace Process. You talk about the benefits of the eu to furthering and Northern Ireland Peace Process. The leader of Sinn Fein Gerry Adams says first of all he fears that taking, this isnt all he fears that taking, this isnt a direct quote, taking Northern Ireland out of the eu could destroy the Peace Agreement in Northern Ireland. And second he says, look, now is clearly the time, given the possibility that the island of ireland may find a solution might especially to this Customs Problem by some sort of integrationist approach. He says the time is coming where we need to ballot the people of the north on whether in fact the time has come to consider unification of the island of ireland. How do you feel about that . The time is not now. I do believe we should confront the issue of the unification of ireland. But a clear majority of people voted to stay in the eu. Your government has been committed to the long term vision of uniting the island of ireland. Is it not a wonderful opportunity for you to say to the people of the north, think about it . Big about having a vote onjoining us, because then think about it . Big about having a vote on joining us, because then you can stay in the eu, all of these problems disappear and we will be as one . I am sure the people of Northern Ireland think about these issues all the time, that i am at one with the Secretary Of State and his colleagues in the british government. We adhere strictly to the letter of the good friday agreement. It states that a border poll will take place at some stage in the future, when in the opinion of the Secretary Of State for the time being of Northern Ireland that the time is right. I do believe that time is now. I believe we have a significant challenge, the greatest challenge of my generation, in dealing with the withdrawal of the uk from the eu and so i dont believe that a debate now on the merits or otherwise of a United Ireland is timely or appropriate. A different direct question. Leaving aside your belief there is no time for a border debate, do you believe, quite simply, that brexit makes the long term prospect of a divided ireland more possible . Long term prospect of a divided ireland more possible . |j long term prospect of a divided ireland more possible . Ijust. Yes or no . May be. I am concentrating at thejob at or no . May be. I am concentrating at the job at hand. Or no . May be. I am concentrating at thejob at hand. I am looking at withdrawing from the eu. There is no upside for ireland. The union will listen. They will say that you are looking for an opportunity to talk about ireland. You are looking for an opportunity to talk about irelandlj you are looking for an opportunity to talk about ireland. I acknowledge the primacy of the good friday agreement. I acknowledge that now is not the time to talk about Border Issues and the unification or ireland. Iam issues and the unification or ireland. I am saying the unique circumstances on ireland need to be acknowledged. There 1. 8 million people. Under the good friday agreement, it is accepted that each of those people is allowed to declare themselves as british, irish, or both. Those who say they are irish are entitled to an irish passport. If you are entitled to that passport, you are an irish citizen. Then you are entitled to eu citizenship. That will need to be resolved in the negotiations. Everyone living in the area outside of the eu, i know about the fact that we are withdrawing, accepting that we are withdrawing, accepting that ireland as part of the uk, and eve ryo ne that ireland as part of the uk, and everyone is entitled to eu citizenship, that itself warrants unique and special circumstances to ta ke unique and special circumstances to take that into consideration. It is one of those special challenges. And now irelands position in the world, not through the prism of brexit, but the way both the eu and your other key partner in trade and foreign affairs, the us, have changed in the recent past. Let us start with the us, your biggest Trading Partner by far. Donald trump as president. Donald trump believes in protectionism, donald trump believes in putting america first. It is a fundamental challenge to irelands economic model, is it not, which has been built around using very low taxes, especially Corporate Taxes, to attract business, especially from the us, to base itself here in ireland. And donald trump does not wa nt ireland. And donald trump does not want that to continue. Of course, as Foreign Minister, i dont meddle in other jurisdictions. Foreign minister, i dont meddle in otherjurisdictions. What we offer in terms of a base for American Companies here in europe is the most dynamic, enthusiastic, and youngest population in europe. Well, we know what you offer, 12. 5 Corporate Tax rate. Donald trump is now saying he wa nts to rate. Donald trump is now saying he wants to cut Corporate Taxes in the us to 15 . Your crucial Competitive Edge which has driven the Irish Economic recovery since the Meltdown Crash of 2008 is being taken away from you. No. The Competitive Edge on eu partners and others is not exclusively in the area of taxation. It is the productivity of our workforce and the skills of the work was. Dublin is repeatedly voted among the top european. You may think that, minister, but look at. It speaks for itself. The record could be looked at in different ways. Look at the legal case in europe about apple and the way in which ireland taxed apple, one of the most successful corporations in the most successful corporations in the world. You let apple put their profits in this country, and you taxed them at a rate that was less than 1 , much less than 1 . The eu said this is not acceptable. The wind has changed. You will not get away with it any more. We often know tax cuts for companies or key individuals. There is no legal case. What you are speaking of is a disagreement. We fundamentally disagreement. We fundamentally disagree with that. They ask you to tax apple for 13 Billion Euros worth of tax which they said you had deliberately failed to extract from that corporation. To simply give them the tax break to keep them on your territory, that is what you are doing. We have appealed to the European Court in order to get a legaljudgement on that. We are satisfied and confident that the irish position will be vindicated in that regard. We often know Sweetheart Deals to any company. How can you say that to me when you know the real tax rate you imposed on apple was an absurd zero point 0. 5 , or something. We Tax Companies like any other eu country and like donald trump does in his ownjurisdiction. The eu like the fact ireland is now seen as a tax haven across europe which offers Sweetheart Deals and unfair breaks to big corporations . That is not the case. Ireland always cooperates with international actors. There have been challenges and adverse opinions. But for many yea rs we have and adverse opinions. But for many years we have been in full cooperation with, for example, the oecd. And cooperation with, for example, the 0ecd. And we have changed some practices. Like those you mention from the 1990s, over 20 years ago. You acknowledge the wind has changed . We acknowledge we need to engage with. I am sure, as Foreign Minister of ireland, i am sure you are aware that the new President Elect of france, emmanuel macron, has said he sees the eus Direction Of Travel as towards a unified treasury, unified tax and fiscal policies across the European Union, and that is a very clear message to a country like ireland that you will not get away with this any more, being the tax haven of europe. That is exactly. That is exactly what was said a number of yea rs exactly what was said a number of years ago. That is exactly what Nicolas Sarkozy said a number of yea rs Nicolas Sarkozy said a number of years ago. We welcome the presidency of emmanuel macron. We look forward to working within. And if are issues around moving forward as a european family, of course, ireland will fully engage in that process. Family, of course, ireland will fully engage in that processm will drag its heels and say absolutely no way. To come back to the point that you managed to recover from your terrible economic meltdown by using an extraordinarily quote unquote tax regime. The way things are looking for europe today in the Direction Of Travel, that will not be tenable in the future. Ireland will have to find a new way of becoming a successful economic player in europe. Ireland, being a small and open economy, is subject to International Trade winds and the winds of adverse economic policies from time to time. Irish people, more than anyone else on the planet, probably, have shown themselves to be resilient in the face of that. We will do the same as far as brexit is concerned. You must be concerned by the winds of populism blowing through the world. Talked about donald trump. In fact, your Prime Minister went on st patricks day to the us and lectured donald trump about the dangers of what he is doing, especially with travel bans and building walls. But it is not just there, it is in europe as well. Ireland is a small country with and open liberal approach. An. It will have a real problem as this trend towards protectionism, building walls, keeping others out, spreads. All politicians faced challenges, as far back as can be remembered. No one in any jurisdiction, without being in the position to take on the challenges at the time, escapes that. Look at recent elections across europe, the austrian election, the netherlands and their election. There has been a push back against populism. Look at our road and jurisdiction. We are operating in the most minority of government situations. Our own. There are complex issues and challenges out there in terms of International Trade and International Trade and International Relations and International Relations and international security, which we have not an opportunity to address yet. But ultimately, i believe there are no simple answers, simple solutions, to very complex questions, and i believe the centre must hold in europe, and the centre must hold in europe, and the centre must hold in ireland. I dont have all the answers to these questions. But i do believe that we will pull the populism. And i dont believe in 2017 that attempting to regress will work. Charles flanagan, we must end it there. But thank you for being on hardtalk. Thank you. Hello. Now, i havent used this particular sphere for some time. And through large parts of the british isles, there was no need. Looking tropical on the coast. To the south west of england, yes, a wet sphere very much the order of the day. And for that, you had to thank an area of low pressure throwing more rain to the british isles. You may have noticed it in the south of england and wales. An increasingly humid feel. It is that change to the regime for the first part of friday becoming increasingly dominant, certainly in the southern half of the british isles. Stepping out first thing, 10111213. Was 3 4 5. Further north, a fresh fresh feel about proceedings. Details about the journey to work or school run. 12 13 degrees widely across southern counties. A grey start to the day. Not too much in the way of sunshine. A speckling of showers at this stage. Further north, a better chance of seeing sunshine in the north of england and getting up to the west of scotland. Rain to be had quite widely in Northern Ireland. I make a distinction in scotland between the west and east. Low cloud to the east. It will be around for a good part of the day. And its notjust eastern scotland, but the east of england as well. With an onshore breeze, cloud sitting low in the atmosphere. Cold through the day. Further south, as some heat comes through. Showers turning quite sharp. The odd rumble of thunder. No fears of that in the north east of scotland. Nine or 10 degrees. Leaden skies. Through the course of the weekend, showers and spells of rain. Eventually things will turn a bit fresher as we switch the breeze coming in from the atlantic, rather than the continent. Saturday, disturbed weather. Further south, isolated showers. But quite a bit of dry weather. Saturday night, this area of cloud and rain going across the british isles. It will be across eastern areas. This is how we import fresh air right across the british isles. Once that is away, once again, a day of sunny spells and some really sharp showers. Im rico hizon in singapore. The headlines changing his story. 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