Trump could also pull off what we call an october surprise, even a military intervention somewhere. The conflict with china, the confrontation with china, is certainly ramping up. Dateline lonon. So i wouldnt discount anything happening between now and november. And a wild card really is the coronavirus. If a vaccine were to be found effective between now and then, that could also just throw the race into completely New Territory with President Trump claiming victory on that. Hello, welcome to dateline london. This week, a second wave in august we hear you, well might threaten more than be watching closely. Summer holidays. Trump watchers weigh a bid britains spies have a new c to postpone novembers president ial election. That is, a new chief of the secret and the names moore, Intelligence Service mi6. Richard moore what does it take to lead the role made famous in the james bond series goes to Richard Moore libyan born, turkish speaking, a secret service in 2020 . With interests including porcelain and cricket. My guests, on socially distanced screens, we dont know whether he prefers his political analyst martini shaken or stirred, but we do know we live eunice goes in dangerous times. And henry chu of the los angeles times. And here in the studio, bbc newsnights mark, what does it take to run diplomatic editor, mark urban. Welcome to you all. Virus spikes, flight an Intelligence Service . Cancellations and a new recession low for the eurozone its more grim news for a continent i think theyve got the perfect whose leisure and Tourism Industries candidate, given the workings hoped to salvage a small something of the whitehall machine from augusts holiday high season at this particular moment. He had a career as an mi6 officer after a ruinous first half to the year. That, i think, takes us to you, running agents, effectively. Eunice, what is your assessment of the worries in many European Countries that are bound is that normal, for someone for a second wave . To become an Intelligence Officer and then become an ambassador . Youre talking about a second wave when in reality were perhaps its unusual, actually, witnessing the continuation but i have to say, when you talk of the first wave and not really a second wave. To people in the service, in southern europe, governments they now say that a period outside, are extremely worried. I think spain and france are very most recently as political director of the foreign office, concerned with the recent rise in cases, and its been quite is very much a desired characteristic of someone whos a dramatic rise in cases. Got to run that service. At the same time, where they want people to be they are trying to manage known around whitehall the tourism industry, and in that position, which plays a very big he clearly was, role in their economies in downing street and all the other in the case of spain, key customers, as they see it, its over 10 of spanish gdp, for secret intelligence, which is now suffering they want somebody who flits easily, tremendously because britain, who is not too ingrained france, many other European Countries, are imposing bans, in the culture of secrecy so not establishing air and tradecraft and will step bridges with spain. Blinking onto the stage of being a chief of the service, perhaps ill equipped that means a lot of economic worries. It is very worrying and i think the european governments, it is very challenging, because they have to manage to take on all the demands. With one hand covid 19 in terms of his experience and portfolio, theres no doubt, and a threat to Public Health, and its a massive threat to public when we look at whats happened in the last couple of months health, but also in the uk, that reshaping the impact on the economy. Of intelligence around the chinese target is going to be critical. Russia, of course, we heard last week about the russia reports in the sense that perhaps the Intelligence Services had been complacent, that was the accusation from the intelligence and Security Committee at parliament. And lastly, i think hes bound to bring a focus on the mediterranean region. He is steeped in turkey as a culture, he speaks turkish extremely well, he tweets in turkish as well as english, and weve already seen that so far, and he was ambassador there. He will be looking to see how far covid 19 has had a catastrophic president erdogans recent impact on all world economies, the eurozone in particular. Assertiveness might threaten the European Union has much bigger contraction than it was initially forecast. And we have to manage those risks, the peace of the region. Because we can be protecting Public Health from covid 19, but the Public Health systems will not be able to respond henry, i want to take up to the challenges if countries are suffering really serious the china point with you, making china the target is all very well, but it is very difficult to get any information out of xijinpings china, or is it easierfor some people . Economic depressions. Certainly china has its own allies. In terms of pakistan or north korea, were talking about states with whom china has a very close turning back to this question of summer vacations spreading a virus, it looks relationship, there is intelligence like that is a problem in the us as well . There definitely has been another sharing going on all the time between those three. Surge in coronavirus there was a period directly after the 9 11 attacks where the us and china seemed to be in a better infections in the us, footing when it came and we have seen the death toll rising as well. To intelligence sharing, it has been fuelled by a lot the overall relationship was better, and that is what we have of the Southern States to remember, that intelligence in what we call the sunbelt, cooperation is always going to be california, texas, arizona, florida. Dictated by the overall though i would say it is not state of diplomatic relations between states. From summer vacations yet, really. Right now, as we see the us become in many of these states, increasingly confrontation it was because of aggressive with china and vice versa, also britain is becoming more reopenings by republican governors allying themselves with President Trumps call and more assertive against china. To liberate their states, and now they are bearing the fruit of that, unfortunately, with greater rise of coronavirus the idea that they would actually be sharing intelligence, ithink, caseloads in many of these states is beginning to recede and they are having to roll back further and further. Every state will share some of the lockdown easing the intelligence that suits them, that they had already instituted that will further their aims, about maybe a couple of months ago. China is no different. When it comes to matters so were seeing that of islamic terrorism, they are reaping the which they tried to paint whirlwind in many ways. The uighers with in xinjiang, particularly florida, where on thursday, i think you had who are turkic speaking people, to death toll of ten so people who the new mi6 director might have more of an insight, that is a place where they might find common ground. But i think, increasingly between the west and china, it is becoming a more people every hour. And more fraught relationship. There is some good news, which is the nationwide caseload seems to be levelling off. There is about 60,000 eunice, give us a europeans take new caseloads per day, which in the us is not bad, on this it is one thing to gather given the population of over 350 million people. Intelligence on societies like china what that means is that its masking or russia, but obviously, for chinese and russian agents where the coronavirus caseload is still rising in some states. Inside open societies, it has now hopscotched whether the uk, europe or north america, these are much more porous and open places from those southern, sunbelt states, to the midwest. To gather information, surely . So we have the wave of infections that really hit the east coast hard, particularly new york, europe has hardened its stance that is what we saw first. Then it started spreading on china and russia just this week, and surging amongst the southern the us issued sanctions states and it has now moved against russia and china to the midwest. So there is no room for complacency and north korea on cybercrime and many states are thinking charges and other activities. And weve also seen about re instituting lockdowns the hardening of stances and many Southern States, towards china since at such as alabama, have reissued mask wearing orders, which they thought they would be least last year. Able to avoid up to now. And coming to the uk, the european commission, in its strategic review, defined china as a strategic rival. So there is a recognition that china we learned this past week that is a very important economic partner for europe but there is a great deal of awareness of the security what many had been saying challenges that it poses. For a while, that england had the highest number of excess deaths and many European Countries, between february and june in europe. France in particular, obviously, borisjohnson has taken are getting increasingly impatient and angry with chinese interference a firm and fast approach and chinese activities in terms of cyber crime, Data Collection and so on. At the moment in terms of slowing down the easing of lockdown, but is he carrying the country with him . So we see a change of attitude. Now, the way that europe will deal with china will not be i think what weve learned the confrontational manner of the united states, in the last 24 with these changes because i think all the economic that borisjohnson made, there does not seem to be stakes that are involved. Any political penalty to caution in this. I think hes observed what happens but weve seen that in the early phases, when a lot of people believe he was too slow hardening of positions. To lock the country down, and hes also seen how our devolved governments in the uk, in scotland, Northern Ireland and wales, by taking a more cautious approach, have reaped political benefit. The fascinating thing yesterday is, when he announced he was pumping on the brake pedal, as he put it, to slow down the easing of certain restrictions, and parts of northwest england are now under tighter social distancing rules again, it was interesting that essentially, the leader of the opposition kier starmer almost immediately came out and said, we support this. It just didnt catch fire in the sense of any hello there. Real political debate. Under the starry skies so i think hes discovered through hard won experience overnight as the showers that taking a cautious line has both have been fading away, temperatures are dipping away. So itll be a chilly start to our monday morning. But there will be plenty of sunshine and, again, a few showers around. A bit more cloud around at times public and political support. Pushing into Northern Ireland and scotland with showers here, but hopefully fewer than weve seen recently. A few showers will be scattered across england and wales, but they could turn heavy into the afternoon, particularly in eastern and just before we move england where thunder cant back to europe on this, be ruled out. But away from the showers about the demographic and the sunshine, and with in terms of the young, because its a lot of focus now the light wind away from the northwest, it should feel pleasant enough. On young people in spain the hashtag, dont chuck then as we go through the night, it all away weve got rain arriving the suggestion that young people so a complete change are increasingly spreading the virus in the weather as we go through monday with summer parties and so on, night into tuesday. Can we tell whether that is just that will stop the temperatures falling so low. A temporary problem which will go and when this arrives, away or a permanent covid fatigue . Itll give quite a lot of rain and stronger winds, your perspective on this particularly for scotland in some degree depends and Northern Ireland on which generation youre from. During the course of tuesday, some epidemiologists have been saying, naturally, pushing its way further when restrictions started to be southwards then on wednesday. But it will fizzle out, and then, the heat and the sunshine returns later in the week. Eased, the younger working population, say people in their 20s or late teens, were bound to be the one to introduce themselves back into society most rapidly. A lot of other people, in the shielding category, werent going to do that. But i think there is also a fairly fierce intergenerational thing building up here. I was talking through with my son some of the restrictions and our concerns about the fact that we suspect hes not keeping to all the restrictions, and he just let rip with, this is all part of the older generation suppressing us, he said to me. I think that is quite a big factor, in many societies, that young people, almost as an assertion of their own rights and joie de vivre, whatever you want to call it, their desire to be in life and with friends and to associate, want to challenge this as an assertion of generational identity. Do you see that in europe . I do see that in europe and i sympathise with mark, my teenage daughter has also suffered tremendously from the lack of socialisation, because of lockdown. We need to sympathise and understand that the lives that young people are experiencing at the moment are a far cry from what young people expected to live in their past. In europe, i think we see the rising spike, in france, in spain, to a certain extent in portugal, is associated with they need this is bbc news movements of young people. Im Lewis Vaughan jones this is bbc news im Lewis Vaughan jones with the latest headlines for viewers in the uk and around the world. The opening of nightclubs, nasa astronauts splash the socialisation in beaches, down to earth after the first parties and so on, it will mean that ever commercial crewed mission to the international theres a much higher space station. Transmission rate. It took years to get here. And the big worry is, we brought the capability back this will continue once to america and we came home schools will open and some universities will open. Safely to our families. So it is quite a bit concerning. A bbc investigation has found the number of deaths from coronavirus in iran is nearly three times higher than admitted. Covid i9 restrictions are tightened in the Capital Region of the philippines to tackle a surge in cases. Do you have a sense of where this fits into the global picture . Because if this joie de vivre language applies, presumably, to young people in the developed world, in the developing world, the picture is extremely critical for young people economically, as well as their parents and grandparents, in terms of their life chances. Just in terms of the global picture, weve also heard in the last few hours that mexico is moving into third place in the overall deaths from the virus give us the global picture in a nutshell. The global picture is extremely grim. We are already in the middle of the greatest economic shock of the last 100 years. Europe is facing a terrible economic crisis, unemployment is at the moment almost double what it was in january. And to the situation will get worse once the state programmes to support employment will close at some stage later in this year. So the economic consequences are going to be very dire and are going to be extremely dire for the younger generations, especially those who are graduating from university at the moment, or leaving school at the moment, because there is nojobs. And what we know from other periods of economic recession, if you are out of the economic ladder at one critical stage in your life, it is very difficult to get back in. So this is a generation that is really in danger of being scarred for a very long time, for pretty much all their working careers. So i think young people are feeling, what are our chances . What kind of life, what kind of world are we going to wake up to once all of this is over . Europe is trying to respond to this. The European Union, a couple of weeks ago, agreed a big rescue plan to help the most struggling economies, those who have been most adversely affected by covid i9, but also those whose economies are suffering by the lockdowns, those who rely a lot on travel industries. But will this be enough . We do not know. We have been talking a lot about a transformational change to all of our economies. Weve been seeing the state changing its role in the economy in a way that hasnt been seen in over a0 years. But will the changes that have been introduced be long lasting, will they result in sustainable, greener and more productive economies . We do not know. Those questions will sustain dateline london for years to come. Henry, yourfinal thoughts on this topic . This is the challenge for governments in terms europe is trying to respond to this. The European Union, a couple of weeks ago, agreed a big rescue plan to help the most struggling economies, those who have been most adversely affected by covid i9, but also those whose economies are suffering by the lockdowns, those who rely a lot on travel industries. But will this be enough . We do not know. We have been talking a lot about a transformational change to all of our economies. Weve been seeing the state changing its role in the economy in a way that hasnt been seen in over a0 years. But will the changes that have been introduced be long lasting, will they result in sustainable, greener and more productive economies . We do not know. Those questions will sustain dateline london for years to come. Henry, yourfinal thoughts on this topic . This is the challenge for governments in terms of tailoring its messaging. The coronavirus hit different groups of people in different ways, so they need to be targeted with messages that resonate. For young people, young men in particular who are reluctant to wear masks, they need to hear particular messages that are directed at them. Thank you for that very apposite point. Ever since 1845, american president ial elections have taken place on the tuesday after the first monday in november. That puts the 2020 vote on the 3rd of november. President trump suggests a delay due to the risk of fraud via postal ballots. But key republicans have already dismissed the idea and a combination of virus, recession and civil unrest are making it hard for President Trump to write the news headlines. Henry, are you surprised by how fast key republicans quashed this idea . I am always surprised when any republicans go against what trump says because many of them are afraid of alienating his fervent base and many of them are themselves up for election. I think that is part of the clue as to why some of them came out so quickly against him, because theyre up for re election and have amassed war chests that they are now going through in terms of trying to campaign, they are adverse to any further delay in the polls, and in a sense, by calling into question the American Election date, which is set constitutionally, as you mentioned, that also calls into question the capability of america to have a functioning democracy. It didnt surprise me as much as perhaps it might have on other issues for republicans to pile on. But i think we need to be clear eyed about just what was motivating trump in terms of coming out with this tweet. I think he knows full well that he is, himself, as president , unable to effect such a change to the election date. That power rests solely with congress, which right now, in the lower chamber, is controlled by democrats, so its a complete nonstarter when it comes to an actual process of trying to change the date. However, he is also a master of political theatre and as we know now, his tweet came outjust in few minutes before the news emerged that the American Economy in the Second Quarter had contracted by one third, which is the greatest contraction in the history of the measurement of the American Economy. And also, as you mentioned in the lead up, his message was mostly about trying to cast doubt on the validity of the mail in votes that we will see in much greater numbers in november. This was, i think, part of his plan to delegitimise the outcome, if it should go against him, and all the polls are showing it will. Its still early days, but yes. 20 years ago, those of us who are old enough to remember, will remember hanging chads in florida and the Supreme Court having to decide the outcome of that president ial election. Judging from what henryjust said, do you think there is a possibility that we are heading towards a Supreme Court decision again if an attempt to delegitimise the vote is in prospect . Everything i read from constitutional experts in washington, dc, and what henry said underlines that, really, is its quite hard for President Trump to get to the area of doubt on this, because the constitution is so clear about his lack of power to set the election. I think its a very close election, of course, there are various scenarios in which he may attempt to cast doubt on the results. I see he has been suggesting that all the votes be counted and tallied on a single day, various ideas are now flying about. It could come to a legal intervention, but lets face it, at the moment, the polls would suggest it is a fairly hefty defeat that hes heading towards, and then that leads to these interpretations about why is he doing what hes doing. Is it purely the interest of the moment, as henry said, because of a terrible focus about the economy . Is he, as some people are saying, just trying to put a brave face on the fact that hes probably going to lose and trying to come up with an explaination before the fact, or is it something darker, is he trying to provoke people, conspiracies on the right, into disorder, which might provide a more intense disruption of voting . Eunice, can you talk a bit about the front runner . Joe biden is still fairly quiet, but his choice of running mate is going to make a splash what factors will he be weighing up . Well, the advisers ofjoe biden are very concerned that having someone who will be a loyal Vice President. There is over ten potential candidates, but i think there are three main candidates. There is kamal harris, susan rice and elizabeth warren, i think they are the three leading contenders. In the debates about what do they bring to the table, what are the important things forjoe biden . Is its experience in Foreign Policy, the ability to come up with actions on russia and china, the ability to also help manage the pandemic . Is it loyalty, is it widening the electoral base ofjoe biden, because hes doing very well with floating voters, although the typical centrist, democratic voter, and perhaps less well with younger and female voters, also African American voters. So i think hes going to ponder around these kinds of issues. And i also think he is very worried with having somebody with he gets along well. He had a very good working experience with president obama when he was his Vice President , and i think he would like to see replicated the same type of experience. One interesting thing is, theres been in the last days, quite a big campaign amongst his donors against kamal harris on the grounds that shes not sufficiently loyal, which is a bit of a strange accusation made to a politician when they were all of them competing to be the democratic candidate to be the president , to run for the presidency. So well see. I think well know in the next few days, but i think if he is going to value above all experience in Foreign Policy and the ability to widen his electoral base and, 00 19 48,560 2147483051 46 38,994 of course, someone with 2147483051 46 38,994 4294966103 13 29,430 whom he gets along well
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