Transcripts For BBCNEWS Dateline London 20170814

To Dateline London. Im shaun ley. In south africa, leadership confirmed. In kenya, leadership disputed. And as for north korea, is it kimjong un or donald trump who holds all the cards . With me to discuss this weeks displays of leadership are vincent magombe, director of the African Journalists network, africa inform international, Thomas Kielingerfrom germanys die welt, the sudanese writer nesrine malik, and the us born, london based Political Commentator ned temko. Ned, how much of this is a horrible bluster, and how much of it reflect a real change in the atmosphere of this relationship that has really been frozen in time for 60 years . The danger is we dont know. I will start by making a safe prediction. Safe if only because i am wrong, no one will be around to know. And that is, i am fairly confident we are not on the brink of nuclear war. But should we be worried . Absolutely yes. On the korean peninsular, even a conventional war could kill hundreds of thousands of people within a space of hours. In places like seoul, which is only minutes away from conventionally armed missiles, tokyo, and the second perhaps equally serious problem is crises like these become was often by miscalculation or accident. Without getting into pop psychology, what is dangerous in this one is you do not have to be a psychologist, you have a president of the us who appears to have no impulse control, who appears to have neither much knowledge or is not interested in policy issues, history, and whose main interest seems to be donald] trump, and i think what is important to realise about everything he says, the multiple craziness, is that it again reflects that this is a crisis that is about donald trump, and if you had him yesterday, rhapsodising about the tens of millions of people who are behind him and who did not like that weak george w bush, that terrible barack obama, and finally we have someone with muscle in the white house. And that is not the kind of context in which you would like a crisis like this to play out. The north Korean Leader provides the sort of enemies that trump thinks makes him looks great. And vice versa. He can bang the drum, but it is an interesting sort of sideshow. We had the good cop and bad cop at the moment in america. He is the bad cop guy, who threatens and uses bluster and so forth, with very reasonable people around him who would not follow the trump line, so he cannot have it all. While you say it is not donald trump, it is also about the standing of american diplomacy in the world. You cannot allow a bull in a china shop to have his own way and threaten a kind of brink from which we are all. I am with you on that, but he does have the Nuclear Codes after all. It is interesting, since trump came to the white house, we speak in a forked tongue about donald trump. One moment we talk about his pathologies, the next we say, there is no way he will do it, and every time he does it. We need to decide whether he is fit completely have a logical. He has done a lot of things the past six months that would have been unthinkable. I think we cannot fathom the depths to which the man will plummet, we always say, oh, this date will put a brake on it, bureaucracy, military. But i have seen very little sign. Potluck transgender in a military, which was extraordinary. You had a president ial order that as of today there will be no more transgender people in the military, and the military ignored it. These questions pale before nuclear war. We dont know the military ignored it. We are told about diplomatic confusion and resistance. Of a plot about known unknowns to quote donald rumsfeld,. Laughter he was an intellectual on the defence job, but he pointed out the things we donot know but think we know. That is ten times more the case now when we talk about north korea. I heard one commentator referred to north korea as the strange mix of confusion with death cult. Nobody outside really understand the regime and therefore does not actually know how to calibrate its response. I am never surprised about what goes on in north korea. It was a rush for ten years and communist rule, that is how they behave. That is what they do. The Theory Attempt of self defence and try to make sure they protect their people and so on. But what i must say about this is the bbc should excuse me as i am the use and diplomatic language. We have two mad guys are really mad, trump and that young man, as i say i am not very surprised about north korea. I dont think the young man would dare trigger a nuclear thing. Trump, i would be very surprised if americans, sensible as they claim to be, all those guys that we all talk about, sensible people around him, but all the same, this guy is very unpredictable and is totally out of order in terms of. But but the powers that he has. I feel very strongly that he is just laughing. How many times has he said, im going to build the wall, by my care, i am dedicated away. Almost everything he has said very loudly, he is not able to do. So i think that this in a certain way, we should see it as they will diverge in from the internal problems facing donald trump. You could say the same thing about kim jong un. Extenuating circumstances about trump, but perhaps we should also consider that he is confronted with a unknown known north Korean Leader, and a old cold war years at least you have the certainty of knowing how the mindset of the soviet union picked, you kind of felt that you are in a safe environment, they subscribe to the same rules of engagement, and so forth. You do not know that about north korea. So this line is that he employees could be a way to tweak out of the north korean mind, where do you stand . Gray always try to find right in trumps case, always. Laughter method in the madness. And that you should Exchange Notes after the programme. Back in the cold war years, you were in moscow. The one area for potential optimism, because i agree with you, i dont think there are many adults in the room, but one of them is the secretary of defence. He himself said, he used the word catastrophic this week for the option of a war. He was standing that message to the white house is much to the rest of the world. Trump cannot have everything. Unless they put his atm number and substituted. We will move onto another continent that has much to discuss. That is the question of south africa. Two elections have taken place this week. South africas president jacob zuma has survived a vote of no confidence and carries on, and kenyas president kenyatta is back in power. An election that are still being contested as we speak by degas, his long time rival. Vincent, so zuma goes on and yet the Corruption Allegations continue. What happens now . Is there real reason to believe it could have been stopped . I would try to defuse too much emotion about this question. Kenya is fairly democratic, and basically if you compare it to the neighbouring countries, uganda, elections were held in february, totalled the game and now we have seen results. We have not seen for example the military on the Security Forces and kenya being used to read the president. That seems not to have happened. Usually what they have, and we thought last time when thousands of people died in kenya, is at the point of declaring this result, so sometimes inconsistencies and results that have been declared in constituencies and some that have been announced in nairobi. There has been a little bit of that. But not to the extent that could overturn the election. The man who is supposed to have won, who is doing the right thing, he has now issued a very conciliatory statement saying, i am very happy and ready to work together. After the killings, they had to come into some sort of unity government. I dont think they have got their point of setting another unity government, but i believe very strongly and soon we might see odinga saying. About him retiring . If he does it, there is a real risk of the type of violence that we saw before, perhaps not thousands of people dying, but. Everyone seems to want to avoid that scenario, however passionate they feel about it, it is still enough within recent memory. There was opportunity to see that kind of virus before people pulled back from the brink. I think it was clear that the rewards would outweigh the consequences. When insecurity happened the first time, kenya was a thoroughfare for Eastern Africa in terms of transportation and infrastructure, and when the last spate of instability happened, many african countries diversified their roots and pipelines, so i think in terms of regional instability, kenya has become less impactful. It has pretty much settled into a two party, two candidate system, which is good for stability, not necessarily very good for diversity. There is still this feeling in the best that they do not get their fair share of resources or their fair share of power. Exactly. That is why i think whenever there is an election, the impulse is to immediately reject it because there isjust so much at stake, that it seems unfathomable that one party has garnered all this support. But i think there will be a stepping back from the brink and some conciliatory language being spoken. It is not quite as optimistic a picture in south africa. Strangely, given that there is no particular violence on the streets because of the outcome of this zuma vote. But interesting that zuma has eight of these confidence motions, he wins every one but this is the first one by secret ballot. He won by only one vote. Suddenly, has the game changed . I think so. We had predicted this for years. I think what we are seeing now is signs within the anc that out of their own self interest, they recognise, you have. The greater tragedy than President Zuma himself, who after all has raised corruption to an artform, he is about to answer 750 separate. He denies all the charges. I want it on the record that they are not true as well. All im saying is that he has held that position consistently, the party has stood by him. I covered south africa in the final, when a final stage of apartheid went back when mandela was released. If you take this to directory come from mandelas miraculous period in rule, where there were, even mandela recognises these huge economic racial and social issues, and he navigated that. You could argue that even under mbeki, although not his chosen successor, he would have preferred. One has got to see these in the historical prism. What has set him isnt really that historical track of anc. That is the only way he was able to stay. The nearest equivalent in ahead of intelligence. One person, the young man who is heading what they call the Economic Freedom fighters. He came upjust before the thing, and somehow said, well, look, there is something going on here. I would like to throw President Zuma away. But this seems to be about the anc. Some people want to derail the historical role of liberation and all that kind of stuff. That is what he was playing and it has helped him. How much longer can continue . It is a quarter of a century. It was triggered when the Finance Minister was sacked. Who is he . This is someone who supports and was the front line for western economic system. Someone who is really working for the Big Companies and so on. He is still being blamed and the anc is being blamed for not transforming the economy. That is why, even if so many people are opposing zuma, they see it well, you are trying to kick him out because he kicked out someone very popular as of the west, and the world bank and so on. But that hasnt helped us. Im struck by this, because i cannot compete with neds distinct record of actually reporting out there for a period of time. I was there for one particular event,which was a decade ago, when mbeki was effectively dumped at a party candidate. I have a vivid memory of being at a reception, a diplomatic reception where there was a rather diminished figure, physically ratherfrail, an intellectualfigure in the party. There was zuma, a powerful presence with great charisma, meeting the diplomatic greeting. Power was clearly shifting. He had not yet become president , but mbeki had been dropped as a candidate. In other words, if you were the anc man, you were effectively going to be the head of state. There was no issue. Is that going to be the case next time . Is that as automatic, or will we be at a Transition Phase where anc and state are no longer inseparable . I think the anc is done very powerful in terms of grassroots support. The opposition is not being headed by black persons, but many people see the opposition as representing the white minority because of its history. The anc has a big chunk of support, but the only thing were going to start seeing is the Power Struggle within the anc itself between those who want to radicalise things, for example, starting to deal with the land issue and economy issues, and those who are not. We expect that when zuma goes, the next person will take all this over. But that might not happen if what i am telling you, this equation goes on, because he is now. He has recent history of being involved in business. He has crossed over and is very supportive of western business, a rich man and so on. He is not somebody who still caters for the small people. We have an urban elite coming into its own. They are probably getting tired of these Post Colonial debates and the inbred sort of Power Structures and want to find some way of getting away from it and reconciling these divisions, and force them into a future state of affairs. That does not hanker back to the Post Colonial, Post Apartheid struggle, and find a new. The issue of the colonial Post Colonial, Post Apartheid issues are still very, very pertinent for south africa. For kainga it might be something different. People are studied to move forward, but. It feels like a historical issue. For south africa, the story of liberation has not been told as yet. The people in the ghettos, the people who do not have much, they are still very strong and it will define future struggles. I agree. It is interesting, there is a perception outside south africa that apartheid was a long time ago. And that there was truth reconciliation, and we have had three black leaders. But it is not really at all. There are still many axes to grind. Therefore, when people say, it was so interesting to hear western commentators say, there is a generation that has Post Apartheid that has now come of age. And for them these things are the struggles of their elders. That is not the case, it is completely relevant. If you see south africa, if there is no racial apartheid, there is an economic apartheid that falls along racial lines. They wear indicators of real trouble recently when the local south africans turned on immigrants from nigeria. They really went out there. What it means is that if anc or whatever governments Going Forward do not address the issue of lack of access to what everyone else is enjoying, were going to have south africa sitting on an explosion. I want to move on. That makes the situation even more tragic than kenya. The anc is in turmoil. They held onto their positions, i cannot completely cut zuma. Activated their confidence, they would have to go back and jockey for their own positions. He also has a nation that is handcuffed to the anc in terms of racial politics, but economically we have not measured economics, economically south africa is in dire straits. I want to mention economics it is likely to be in context, but one were to take pics of the general theme youre talking about. Europeans are enjoying their summer holidays, but on wednesday, one spanish beach played host to a different sort of visitor. In one of the most striking photographs of the week, a Rubber Dinghy emerges from the surf on the coast near cadiz. People have jumped into the water and are running the last few feet onto the beach. A group of sunbathers has gathered to find out whats going on. This is a representation in one picture of a whole process that has happened before and is happening in other parts throughout the middle east. We talked about libya as a way that people get into europe, who have a search for economic opportunities, many of them coming from sub Saharan Africa and going to north africa, now evidently we were talking about ten years ago a cross from morocco into spain is active again. How much does this tell us about the continued economic demand from africa . I think it says three things, that there is consistent economic pressure on north africa. If people have a route they will take it. Thirdly, there isjust more accessibility of information about these types of routes. Ten even five years ago, the ability to find out things via social media, cheap phone calls, voice over ip, about the routes to take, was severely diminished. And now the flow of information is much clearer, people scratch their heads and say, how do these people know, how do they know where to go when it is notified routes or streets or signs saying. . It is because information is now free. The routes dont matter. The point is the issue. People coming from places like africa, it will continue until we start having some economic involvement, the political stability and so on. We stop these wars in the middle east. The whole thing, of course europeans do not want us to come, but you are part of those problems. Unless you stop causing wars and installing dictators, than we will still come. You close this route, we will find another route. Just like you came to us, we will find another route to come here. So it is about global inequalities, but it is also about politics of the world. How people are creating wars. It is about history as well. And the fact that there are structural inequalities, not entirely attributable to one party or the other, but when you have structural inequality and where people want to make a life, they will find a way. And we build so much inflammatory language about this and we pathologise a very simple impulse, which isjust to escape from economic or war or insecurity. As all those europeans did when it comes to your country 500 years ago. And helped to shape your country for the consequence of the people who live there. To come back to our favourite topic, donald trump. Laughter your favourite topic. I think you have a bit of an obsession. The central political and economic truth of our age without being over the top, is that these things are not going to stop and that you can build walls and promise that the Coal Industry will start all over again, you can tell people that it is muslims or mexicans rather than microchips that is taking yourjobs. If you want to build those walls to stop us coming, then stop coming and stealing our things and do whatever. Europeans came to our places, we will come to you. Everywhere. When we come here, you start saying, oh, stop it that will solve your problem. That does a reasonable point to make. Two years ago we had this young child dying on the shore, and it created a swell of sympathy for refugees. Now this boat creates another impression altogether. Fear. We have to stop this, we cannot cope with it. We are in the middle of this and. Thank you all as ever for a challenging discussion. Thats all we have time for this week, but dojoin Dateline London next week, same time, same place. Goodbye. Good morning. Early birds take note, its going to bea early birds take note, its going to be a chilly start to our sunday morning. In fact in rural areas further north we could see low single figures but thats going to be accompanied by Gorgeous Bells of Sunshine Today, quiet day with light winds and into the afternoon a bit of Fairweather Cloud Into Scotland and western fringes with a few isolated showers. The best of the Sunshine Today certainly across Eastern England and South West England seeing the warmth as well, highest values of 22. More rain to come as we move into monday. Some of that will be quite heavy and persistent, making its way out of Northern Ireland into scotland. Lighter ann patchett for wales and South West England with also this hour and east staying dry during Daylight Hours and patchy. Thats likely to be the theme into the start of this week. Yes, there will be some spells of sunshine but at the same time there will also be some spells of rain. Thats it, take care. Welcome to bbc news, broadcasting to viewers in north america and around the globe. Im duncan golestani. Our top stories A Gun Battle On The Streets of burkina faso, after suspected jihadists target an hotel and restaurant. Americas top general prepares to meet south koreas president , as the north says it has the right to develop Nuclear Weapons to defend itself. The white house defends president trumps response to the attack on anti racism protestors in virginia. And protests against plans to build a road through a Bolivian National park