Loans, slash grants, becoming available right now, to the tune of close to 35, 40 billion thus farce. Conservative estimates. Maybe as high as 75 billion by the end of day. That is buoying the s p 500. The dow is 19 off its bear market low reached a little more than three weeks ago. A similar situation for the s p 500. Now, about 16 or so away from those lows. Whether that holds is anyones guess. But a lot amid talk as well well get more stimulus here or relief, whatever you want to call it. That it could rival the price of last and most recent relief package north of 2. 2 trillion, hard to say. Blake burman has been looking at all of that. Blake . Reporter hi, there, neil, hard to say indeed. Here is what i am seeing speaking to Senior Administration last night, there has not been sizable movement the last couple days next potential steps coming in terms of economic relief. I am told there are some ideas that they are kick around within the white house as of if that does happen, what that might look like though i am told, i do want expectation set here a little bit, it was said to me, quote, this is super plea preliminary. Here is what theyre kick being around. Payroll tax cut. Capital gains tax cut, possibility of ending Capital Gains taxes for as long as two years. Giving business as waiver that would clear them of any liability from employees who contract covid19 while on the job. And potentially introducing a 50 year treasury bond. Those are some the ideas im told talked about, very preliminary but larry kudlow this morning picked up on the last idea, suggesting that the administration could introduce essentially what would amount to a covid war bond. Listen. Were just looking at it. We dont, again, lets see where it leads. Again, we have to execute what weve got on the table. It is a massive package give it a few weeks, minimum a month. Lets see how effective we are, how efficient we are. Lets see if we need more money. Well seek more money. To that point well finance it. I dont think it will be hard to refinance. Reporter so you heard kudlow there, neil, acknowledging that the most important thing at this point is implementing phase three, and it could take, at least trying to figure out next steps, give this a week, maybe even a month beyond that. Im also told from a Senior Administration official, neil, at least reminded that the president s direction at this point, at least what he is talking about, infrastructure, deductions potentially entertainment which would help out the restaurant and entertainment industry, potentially adding more to Small Businesses. That is sort of what the president has been talking about. While all the ideas are floated within the white house, theyre still keeping ice on implementation and a few things that the president mentioned very publicly. Neil. Neil blake burman, thank you very much, my friend. Were monitoring the Iowa Governor kim reynolds is addressing the press. Iowa is one of eight states, iowa, nebraska, north dakota, south dakota, nebraska, wyoming, dont have socalled stay at home provisions. A couple of those states recommend it but they do not order it. States like new jersey and new york, for example, they order it. Were monitoring that. Very soon well hear from Governor Andrew Cuomo of new york. Much made of the fact that the number of deaths in new york though still high has become, started to slow down and the governor seizing on that maybe an early sign that this apex, socalled, you know, Highwater Mark could be reached a little early. That is the kind of positive signs average folks like to hear, average investors like to hear. But as far as the investment community, todays smart runup were seeing in the dow, you know, take this with a grain of salt here, especially when we hear the likes of jamie dimon talking up the possibility of extremely adverse conditions Going Forward in the economy. Financial stress. He went on to talk about he is still expecting a bad, a bad recession, but he is looking at the Bigger Picture and still confident longer term well come through this. I want to get the read on all of that from a fellow who follows all of this very, very closely, Fifth Third Bank chief investment strategist joins us right now. Jeff, you get two very different views from the Investment Bank crowd. Jamie dimon who is cautious but see as severe recession coming. Morgan stanley who thinks we might be through or thinks we might be through the worst of it. Where are you on this . Well, we put out a piece two weeks ago called nasty, brutish and short, which is our assessment what we can expect. If you look at the Unemployment Rate we think the worst is yet to come. In fact there was a poll conducted by axios and ipsos that was conducted from march 27th through the 30th t was intended to talk about how many people were working from home, et cetera, but it had a component that suggested in the polling that our Unemployment Rate is already north of 15 , if this poll is truly reflective of the workforce as it was intended to be. That suggests to us that the worst is still ahead of us. We are going to get an extreme test but we think with the amount of stimulus, both monetary, particularly fiscal, this downturn will be fairly shortlived but the worst is still in front. Ashley you know, when i look at a lot of the data we get, jeff everyone factored in the awful numbers, the 10 million plus jobs lost that it could climb exponentially, factory activity ground to a halt, retail sales ground to a halt, all of that, one thing interesting to me the market did respond to this slightly better than expected report of the number of deaths in new york. Andrew cuomo addressing the press. Well be going to that in just a second but one of the things that was noted but on sunday we had 594 deaths reported. On saturday, 630. So theyre looking at that, both new york officials and apparently the market, general folks, that this might already be and i be an improving trend. Do you think that will decide the course how the markets react just how average folks react, they like that, what do you think . I think well get an Immediate Reaction people realize there is a peak, a peak in new york occurring now suggests that the National Peak will be two weeks, two weeks out. What our concern is, not that were going into a great depression. We never thought that i think todays Market Action perhaps reflects a growing consensus that this will be shortlived but it is how cleanly we can come out of this. One of the things that caused us to start having concern over the coronavirus back in february and even a little bit in january was the way it can disrupt the Global Supply chain. So the u. S. May be ready to come out of this but the supply chain may take some time to recover. Not just china of course is ahead of us but think what is going on in europe. All of this i think will make for a little bit of a choppier economic exit. But that doesnt mean that the markets have to be choppy coming out. Markets are of course forwardlooking and can start looking out to 2021 earnings, let alone what is going on in the short term. Neil all right, jeff, we shall see. Thank you very much. The new york Governor Andrew Cuomo is spelling out those numbers. Many were seizing the data even before the governor took to the microphone, the worsthit state, still the worsthit state, but not as bad as it was 24 hours ago. The governor. Some suggest this is a slight pause at the top. Some suggest there is a longer pause at the top which is effectively aplateau effect, or again a straight up, straight down precipitous drop which is the peak effect. No one can tell you which will occur. They say any one of the three options, you study other countries you have a combination of the above. We are studying it as we have used the projection models from day one to determine actually what we do, how do we set policy and program, by following the data. Dr. Milatros has been working on the numbers, working with the statisticians and the projection models and helping us incorporate that into an operational model. Jim, if you want to take a moment and speak about the projection models here, please. Great, thank you, governor. As the governor said we have been looking at projection models from the beginning to determine the size and scope and severity and the governor has mentioned this over his briefings, weve been working with Many Organizations, using the data like imperial college, institute for Health Metrics and evaluation. Cornell, mckenzie and others and some of the initial projections that we first saw at the beginning of this was at least 100, up to 110,000 beds for Covid Patients alone and the peak would come at the end of april. Those were some of the earliest modeling from Many Organizations that it would be at the end of april around 110,000 beds just for Covid Patients. There are other models too that we were tracking, one being lower at about 55,000 covid beds but again, peaking at the end of april. We follow now that we have a pretty robust data set to go by for the last several weeks the bottom line there, the purple line is sort of where we are tracking today, which suggests it is a little lower and the question was, what could you do to lower those initial projections from 110,000 and from 55,000. So a lot of the activity was we saw where the statisticians and the folks looking at these types of models said it was going. So what activities and actions could you take to aggressively lower that overall number . And the answer really was, and what the governor has been doing aggressively enforce and enact social distancing to lower the overall number and this number and the current data suggests that is exactly whats happening and its not settled yet because we are going day by day and numbers as the governor says has changed a lot. Over time, based on what numbers come in, but this could suggest that we are indeed potentially at the apex or beginning to be at the a apex at this moment. Like the governor said, there is range of models, seven days, 14 days, 21 days, 30 days. Looks like were towards the earlier side of that time frame based on current projections and modeling weve been looking at. Thank you, jim. But you also see on these, you see on this slide neil new york Governors Press conference but some good news where you can take it here. What theyre essentially saying is the death rate increase has begun to slow. New york, which is leading the country by the way, 4758 deaths reported as of now, that is up from 4159, 24 hours ago. Total new york cases jumped about 8,000 to a little north of 130,000. All of this as the u. S. Death toll just passed 10,000. Were closing in about 1 1 2 million cases worldwide. The reason why a lot of folks are seizing on that otherwise depressing data is because it is not as depressing. In other words the rate of deaths and growth of cases appears to be slowing. You need a few more days worth, actually a couple of weeks worth of such data to confirm such a trend. Let me get the read with dr. Anita radcliffe, boardcertified physician. What do you make of it, others are defining it pay cross the country as a slowing trend. Is that true . Right. This means there is light at the end of the tunnel. What were expecting america to understand epidemiology which is an entire branch medicine dedicated to understanding how germs are spread and how they end and this is very confusing to most people. But what were seeing here, there are two stages when it comes to getting rid of covid19. The first will be decrease in number of new cases. That is what we think were seeing a mountaintop or apex and we can start seeing the horizon or the pastures below but i want to caution also that we heard the Surgeon General also state, brace yourself, we may see the pearl harbor or the 9 11, where there will be number of increase in deaths. That is because of number of hospitalizations, people who need breathing machines and people dying that lags behind. That has to do with the fact that after you get infected it can take two to 14 days for symptoms to start showing. Even though number of new cases start decreasing that is also signaled in new york it, will be sometime before we do see the number of new deaths or number of deaths decreasing as well too. Neil as a doctor, doctor, are you comfortable with state has might dial back some of their mitigating, you know, requirements, you know, 42 states that have such requirements, stay at home, what have you, based on apex hitting its high and going down a little bit . What do you think of that . Absolutely not. Were seeing what is happening in new york but that can happen in any of the other states if we do not take these precautions. For the next 30 days everyone should be socially distancing. Everybody should maintain hand hygiene. We need to be cautious of this. We could have an outbreak in any of these places and mitigation and social distancing do work. Just look at washington state. They just returned back about 400 ventilators to the National Stockpile that can be used in other areas because they, very early stages started installing, instilling these types of practices. So theyre having a decrease in it. Were looking what happens when you do impose harsh, very strict rules in terms of social distancing, whether it is closing down businesses, decreasing gatherings. They work and so we dont want to make that mistake, hey, theyre doing great over here but new york had to go through a lot. They suffered significantly. There is no reason for us to repeat this in other areas. Neil so even in new yorks case would you argue that if they still had deaths but a fraction what they had at their height, by the end of the month when the president and others expressed a goal, the hope, maybe, to sort of unwind from these shelter at home provisions, that that would be okay . Because weve come down from our highs or the fact that youre still registering deaths, new ones every day, is that enough to pause . What would you do . Well time will tell. We need to see where we are. If these measures are continued we are going to see progress but we dont want to say today, hey, the gains today, definitely in 30 days we can just stop. We need to address what the reality on the ground is. Maybe new york will be different, for example, than alabama. We do need to wait to see. Neil all right, doctor, thank you very, very much. It is promise on the virus front making a difference with these markets with the dow up at session highs here, better than 1140 points. It wipes out all the doom and gloom numbers you heard about. Janet yellen, former Federal Reserve chair, she envisions Second Quarter gdp declining at better than 30 clip. Right now were looking at a 12 to 13 hit. Well be looking at substantial job losses. Citigroup is saying that global earnings may fall, still, still as much as 50 and stocks could go along with them. So that is sort of a, but, anomaly that confuse as lot of folks because they dont know really where to park their bets. We also told you about jamie dimon who sees a recession coming but the folks at Morgan Stanley said weve been you there the worst of it. We put it all out there, let you digest it, see what you come up it. Interest rates backing up little bit, stocks are looking really, really good, the first sign of the worst of it, if some of these embattled states could be turning around, i stress could be. Stay with us. music ive always been fascinated by whats next. And still going for my best, even though i live with a higher risk of stroke due to afib not caused by a heart valve problem. So if theres a better treatment than warfarin. I want that too. Eliquis. Eliquis is proven to reduce stroke risk better than warfarin. Plus has significantly less major bleeding than warfarin. Eliquis is fdaapproved and has both. Whats next . Reeling in a nice one. Dont stop taking eliquis unless your doctor tells you to, as stopping increases your risk of having a stroke. Eliquis can cause serious and in rare cases fatal bleeding. Dont take eliquis if you have an artificial heart valve or abnormal bleeding. While taking eliquis, you may bruise more easily and it may take longer than usual for any bleeding to stop. Seek immediate medical care for sudden signs of bleeding, like unusual bruising. Eliquis may increase your bleeding risk if you take certain medicines. Tell your doctor about all planned medical or dental procedures. Eliquis, the number one cardiologistprescribed blood thinner. Ask your doctor if eliquis is whats next for you. Neil i told you weve been monitoring Governor Andrew Cuomo in new york with remarks at the press conference. He would now extend social distancing measures already in effect . The state. That is schools nonessential businesses. Sheltering at home, until at least april 29th. That is a wednesday. So this is debate the apex, as things stand now, he is comfortable saying that this will continue until at least april 29th, which kind of jibes what are the National Numbers and guidance were getting i think from the white house until april 30th, next day. But a lot of people are thinking by end of this month, keep Getting Better than expected numbers, both on number of new cases and number of deaths reported. Even though you might still have them increasing f theyre not increasing nearly the rate they were, that might be good enough for a green light for people to go back to work, or at least leave their homes to dial that back. A lot of people focus on that the fact that the governor address the it, it is a telling reminder, a lot of people are thinking about that. Were montorring the fact that we had over 1000 cases right now in the United States with a lot of people wondering are we slowing change what is the for 42 states in this country. 92 of the Amer