the hamas terrorist threat is now in europe. the lead starts now. terrorist attacks foiled as germany and the nethlerlands say they have arrested members of the hamas who planned to attack jewish institutions in europe. an exclusive investigation into the nation's largest credit union, navy federal, revealing an alarming disparity between white and black applicants approved for home loans and those denied. and now in the hands of the jury in the defamation case against rudy giuliani. the two are seeking $43 million in damages for rudy's lies. welcome to the lead, i'm jake tapper. we have a lot but we will start with breaking news on the money lead. the dow closing moments ago at a record high for the sk day in a row. let's get straight to vanessa. what is driving this surge and what might it mean for americans' wallets? >> another day, another record. the dow closing up 158 points, beating the record it just set yesterday. yesterday's record was because the fed announced it was holding rates steady and it was projecting three additional rate cuts next year. this is important because today on wall street, we also saw better than expected retail sales boosting the dow and mortgage rates dropping below 7% for the first time since august. this is obviously good news for anyone who has money in the markets, who has a 401k and also for the millions of americans who don't. stronger than expected retail sales shows the strength of the u.s. consumer. and mortgage rates dropping below 7% will certainly pull some first time home buyers off of the sidelines and ultimately, they may be able to afford their first time home. but jake, you know the fight against inflation is certainly not over. jerome powell said it himself. we can't declare victory yet. but the markets today, strong economic data points certainly pointing in the right direction. jake? >> all right, thank you so much. turning to the world lead, we are following major developments in the israel hamas war, a war that began on october 7th when hamas terrorists launched an attack on israel and killed 1200 people, mostly civilians. hamas's desire to kill jews is not limited to israel. several were arrested in europe, accused of mruting terrorist attacks there. let's get to alex who is on the ground in tel aviv. separate arrests span germany, netherlands, and denmark. what can you tell us about the suspected terrorists? >> reporter: yeah, a lot of information from different countries. these do appear to be two sets of arrest. in germany, they specifically mentioned hamas saying they arrested four people, three in germany and one in the netherlands. the three they arrested, they call longstanding members of hamas. they were arrested on suspigsz of planning attacks on jewish institutions. in denmark, they also arrested four people rgs one in the netherlands and three in denmark. they said these people were preparing attacks of terrorism and they mentioned jewish places. and the equivalent of the fbi in israel thanked denmark. they did not mention the arrests in germany but they said the arrests in denmark were clorely tied to hamas and that they were acting on behalf of the hamas terrorist organization. they thwarted the attack, the goal of which was to kill innocent civilians on european soil. the germans and israelis talking about hamas wanting to carry out attacks on european soil which would be a real change in their goals because they have been focusing all of the attention on israel. now it may be expanding. >> moments ago, president biden spoke to reporters as the white house is struggling to some comments me he made beclosed doors. >> big questions on how long the war will go on. president biden saying he wants israel to be a lot more careful when it comes to civilians but he doesn't want them to stop going after hamas. but at the same time, we saw jake sullivan, security advisor in israel today. we are told he talked to the top israeli officials about the timeline saying he wanted israel to shift the war from a high intensity phase into a low intensity phase in the near future. we are told that the near future is the coming weeks. we have previously reported that this transition is expected in the next few weeks, that the lower intensity phase would look like more targeted attempts to take out top hamas leaders, counterterrorism raedz, that kind of thing. the u.s. certainly exerting pressure but being very careful that they are not telling you awhat to do but as john kirby said at the white house today, we want the war to be over as soon as possible. the question is whether that will be heeded by israel. we heard netanyahu after the meeting with jake sullivan earlier today saying that they are more determined than ever and they will keep fighting until absolute victory. the defense minister also talking about how the war is expected to go on for more than just a few more months. the two countries may be significantly at odds about the timeline for this war. jake? >> all right, alex in tel aviv for us, thank you. nearly half of the munitions dropped on gaza since the start of the war have been unguideded dumb bombs according to a u.s. intelligence assessment obtained by cnn. dumb or unguided bombs as opposed to precision munitions pose a greater threat to civilians. an israeli military official said that these bombs are needed to destroy the hamas tunnels under gaza. when asked for official comment rgs an israeli military spokesperson told cnn we do not address the type of munitions used. our chief national security analyst is with us now. how do the munitions work and what is the concern? >> the concern is that so-called dumb bombs are less precise than precision guided new munitions. this is of particular concern in a densely populated area in gaza where the difference between life and death can be a matter of a few feet. this is why you have seen the u.s. military deliberately phase out the use of unguided munitions over the past decade. there are ways you can make unguided munitions more precise through the application of a guidance, essentially a guidance package that you can build on. but it is not clear at this point, how many of these sort of guidance kits israel has, and whether they are using them . and most critically, what the rules of engagement are, right, what they consider the acceptable threat for potential civilian loss of life in any given strike. >> right. israel insists they have not changed the rules of engagement. there are a lot of people in the military who think they have after october 7th. is the use of dumb bombs ipgaza new? and how does this compare to how the u.s. military has used the bombs in war? >> it is not new. the u.s. uses dumb bombs less. if you look at the assault on isis a number of years ago, most were guided. there were certainly civilian casualties but less than in gaza. this seems to be a math problem for israel. they don't have as many guided weapons as they may want to use and they are resorting to the use of dumb bombs. it is not clear how many are equipped with guidance packages that you were talking about, it turns the dumb bomb smart. the u.s. has provided 3,000 of them sips october 7th. but they have dropped 29,000 bombs. they don't have enough kits to do it. there is another issue. with many smart bombs, you need teams on the ground to shine a laser in effect at the target. while israel has forces on the ground, it doesn't have them in great numbers, particularly in the southern part of the country. so they may have made a decision that they are comfortable using fewer precision weapons. >> they say that's how they get the tunnels, get the hamas members in the tunnels which are under the apartments and everything else. we saw the four suspected members of hamas arrested in germany and netherlands, having planned attacks on jewish targets. how have hamas's operations outside of gaza shifted since the war started? >> this is a major question on whether hamas is making a decision on whether to carry out operations outside of israel. we have not seen that to date in numbers. there have been operatives, even in the u.s., primarily focused, chris wray testified to this number, on fundraising. to make an operational change in which they are carrying out directed attacks in europe or the u.s. homeland, that would be a change. in these arrests the authorities are saying they were looking at an underground weapons cache in europe which would presume they are preparing for something. it is not clear if this was imminent. i know authorities in europe and the u.s. are watching not just for directed attacks, ones where a hamas official calls them up and says carried it out but inspired attacks which are harder to track, inspired lone wolves that make their own plans. . we have seen that in europe and the u.s. >> thank you to you both. just 32 days until the republican caucuses in iowa, what voters in that state say about the candidates now versus the feelings on the candidates earlier in the year. john king is revisiting the conversation in the all over the map series, next. turning to our 2024 lead, cue the music, please. we are just one month and one day away from the iowa caucus. republican voters have their first choice to throw support behind their favorite candidate in the state. donald trump rallied in the hawkeye state, i think it was his 15th visit to iowa since this cycle began. he urged his supporters to show up to caucus and not take his leads in the polls for granted. but trump took the chance to go after two of his main competitors. >> desantis doesn't even like farmers. i said that is not good. he doesn't want to get that word out. and i keep hearing about the surge from haley. sir, i will never run against you. you have been a great president, i will never do this. this goes on for a year and a half and then she is having a news conference, i've decided to run. the whole thing, what's with the politicians? desanctimonious has been saying for the past six months, wait for the bounce. he has waited for the bounce. the bounce is going that way. it's going the wrong direction. >> donald trump is correct when he talks about as of yet, a lack of surging for either ambassador haley or governor desantis according to the latest poll. desantis is up 3 points from the paper's october poll. haley has stayed flat. she is focusing more on new hampshire. where does that leave voters who may like trump's policies but are looking at other candidates who may bring a little less drama, a little less baggage? john king went to iowa to find out. you followed up with voters you met earlier this year to see if they have changed their minds at all. what did they say? >> we started this five months ago and we were in touch with the group. it is anecdotal reporting. trump support is very solid, maybe even growing. his supporters are bullish. among our voters, we have some movement towards nikki haley. the bi is it enough? and 32 days, do they have enough time? >> reporter: trump support is deep here espegsy in rural counties. but if there is to be an iowa surprise, republican women will power it. this is priscilla forsythe making christmas crafts with friends in sioux city. five months ago, she was leaning towards vivek ramaswamy. now she is urging friends to vote haley. >> usually the debates don't make a big difference but this time they did. >> reporter: she caucused for trump when he ran in 2016 but now she sees something else taking place i think they are underestimating the people who don't want the chaos anymore. >> reporter: there is a lot of that in the des moines suburbs. >> we want to go to something new. >> reporter: betsy sarcone hopes that they will elevate a strong trump alternative. this is what she told us in august. >> i am pulled towards desantis. >> reporter: this is now. >> i'm likely a nikki haley caucuser. >> reporter: sarcone says her brother and parents are also leaning haley but she is not final yet. >> if people were going to consolidate, i'm going with desantis. that's not what i'm seeing so far. the suburbs out here, you will see a lot of desantis haley. >> but if it is desantis, haley, trump wins. >> he does. that's the question, right? how do you get people to consolidate. >> reporter: this is chris mud's big change. midwest solar is growing and needed a new office. same candidate, same confidence you have to have thick skin to be for trump today. the people who say they are for him will show up. >> when you hear desantis say we have to stop losing or haley say no drama, no chaos, time for a new generation of leadership, you say? >> there are 35 to 40 points behind trump. i would say they are the chaos and they should stand down and support trump. >> reporter: mud doesn't care about polls showing haley runs stronger against president biden. doesn't care that trump could be both the republican nominee and a convicted felon by summer. >> i think trump has been pushed into a corner. i think he has a lot of targets on him. he is doing a great job of deflecting every one of them. >> you talked to people on the ground who have their candidate. some think there could be a big iowa surprise. can anyone catch him in 32 days? that seems unlikely. the haley people think maybe but maybe the best option is a second place that they say wow, that is better than we thought. but the trump people say they will turn out. the big difference between now and 2016, the trump organization on the ground in iowa is full of professionals. >> the first republican voters have not gotten their say in the caucus or primary yet. but trump seems primarily to be taking aim at biden as if he is not even really paying much attention to nikki haley and ron desantis. he is really focusing on the general election as if the nomination is his. >> he is but make no mistake, that is part of his nomination strategy. to try to say i'm inevitable, get on the trump train. one thing we did in iowa is that people have reservations. you know this. talking about trump, being divided, being on the other side of trump can ruin relationships and cause arguments at home and at work. one of the things in iowa said i don't want to vote for trump but he will win anyway. so i will stay home or vote for trump because i don't want the grief in my life. so the inevitability is part of the strategy. right now they have the numbers to back that speech up. >> we will keep the conversation going on why so many republicans are able to look past trump's record and legal problems to back him. and for president biden, what is working and what is s not as h e pusheses for reelelection. ststay with usus. sticking with our 2024 lead, former president trump in iowa last night making a final pitch to voters ahead of the caucus next month, the frontrunner for the republican nomination, locking in on his main target, president joe biden and bidenomics. >> the biden administration is running on the fumes of the great success of the trump administration. without us, this thing would have crashed to levels never seen before. and if we are not elected, we will have a depression the likes of which i don't believe anyone has seen, maybe 1929. >> let's discuss with our panel, congressman walsh, trump unsurprising in addition to that it sounded like a fairly normal campaign argument but not surprising he also repeated his 2020 election lies last night as he is known for straying wildly from policy points. but let's return to the message on the economy. does that aseem affective to you? it doesn't matter what he says. the more you listen to it, it doesn't matter. his greatest legacy is the destruction of truth and now all of the republicans copy him. he is way ahead in iowa. it doesn't matter. the des moines register poll showed he has increased his lead. he can do whatever he wants right now. >> pretty much. >> and yet with the economic hit, the dow hit a record high today beating yesterday's record high. mortgage rates have dropped under 7% for the first time since august. all of this should be great news for joe biden but these things do not translate to prosperity in the daily lives of americans and inflation has eaten out a lot of the gains that have been made. >> sure. >> what is the problem there and please don't say it is a communications problem? >> sure. the minute i heard the market had a record high yesterday i thought donald trump will have to say something about that. he kept talking about the stock market when he was president. we have also seen pretty strong spending around the holidays which is another sign. again, i think there is a real disconnect from the traditional economic markers that we look at and what a lot of people are facing in their every day lives. that's a fact. one thing that the biden campaign and administration could be reminding people are that parts of the plan that joe biden was trying to put in place, lowering cost for child care which is an economic issue. >> prescription drugs. >> some of the things that didn't go through because republicans blocked it. i would like to see them talk more about here are the things we want to do to keep more money in your pocket. when you lower the cost, that's the thing the president can control. he can't control interest rates. it was interesting that ron desantis was like we got to get the interest rates down but i was like, where is your magic wand? >> yesterday after work, a bunch of biden administration staffers went outside the white house and celebrated the dow reaching a high -- sorry. that's not what they did. they went outside and largely held a vigil, calling for a cease fire, criticizing their boss for not supporting a cease fire. so again, the calls for coming from wen the house. he can't get credit from his own staffers. he can't get attention from his own staffers for the record dow. >> i think it is a really cool opportunity for biden. assuming he stands strong with israel, that he welcomes this sention within his own party. as long as he stands with israel, it makes him look open minded and strong. >> that is a good point. being a white house staffer and you are under such a microscope. and sometimes the administration does things you don't agree with it. and just because you are here doesn't mean you agree with it. but i hope that is part of what people take away. you can disagree even with the president that you are working for and that doesn't mean you don't support him on other things. i think that's not a bad thing. >> that's a nice spin. i don't think he can fire them because he is already doing badly enough with young voters that it would be a huge negative. but the conversation i hear about this kind of thing is, this is not my point of view, so don't get mad but the conversation i hear is this is disloyal, they are making him look bad, why doesn't he fire them. >> that's ridiculous. it is a free country. >> but they work for the president and they are empirically making the president look bad. >> well, again, i think it is a sign of a strong democracy that you can say i sdree with the president on this but i still work here and i still believe in him on other things. >> well, that was the thing. most had their faces covered but i think if biden acknowledges it, it is also a sign of, it will strengthen him that he is okay with this. >> can i say the other thing we are are seeing that i thought was the positive and the president got asked about it today, what you say behind closed doors, is not what you can say publicly. >> sure. >> it does seem that the administration is moving farther along to more publicly criticize netanyahu. >> of course, jake sulrn in israel today pushing him publicly. >> again, dissension is part of the democracy. >> a popular republican governor in new hampshire endorsed nikki haley today. i want you to lis p to what he had to say. >>