It, where people arent going to say joe who . If you feel you can do it, you should do two. It gets you to the point where you need to be you will you are revealing i can give you a hint the average real heat feel was 115. And you werent out west . No. Thats a dry heat. This is a humid is that hot a place called the golden isle you have to google it. What state . Georgia heat index 115 . Yes you can fly into jacksonville. Why people go there in august . I dont know i havdont have an answer you have time coming up . It may be a good time of year to go to georgia quite the price to pay to get a couple months off. You have some experience dow is up 53 points right now. Continuing the snap of green after what had been more diff difficult. Maybe it is joe being back s p up ten points and nasdaq by 46 stocks sliding in asia lets mention treasuries this is what is interesting. Green in equities. Look what is happening with 10 and 30 the 30 at 4. 26 there are people who are concerned about the long end you see us going with back to recent highs thats where i feel there was pressure on equities as you move throughout the day or week i was happy we werent as inn v inverted the 10 2 what struck me is before i left, the permanently wrong people that we have on cnbc finally were changing their tune and we made no headway. You realize you are sitting next to tbill and chill the minute we stalled out we start selling off. All the way up to 4,500 on the s p. Okay when you saw them throw in the towel, do you think it is time to get caught some did not throw in the towel. They got in the yearend target of 4,400 they have to get above 4,000 they are trying to convince their people that employ them that i have some value although i dont know what im talking about. Barry will be here. He has been right. Is he longer term bearish well get to that well talk to him about that hes one of the guys thats been a long way i agree stocks sliding in asia nikkei and hong kong down 1 china credit data for july slowed in demand with the borrowing of money and households down with a 18 drop in Country Garden holdings in a filing over the weekend, they expect to post the worst lost since going public 16 years ago and will suspend trading of bonds. The company missed 22. 5 million of payments and has a 30day grace period to come up with the money. The japanese yen reached the 145 mark against the u. S. Dollar the last time the yen was here, the japanese government and boj stepped in to buy at 145 the dollar is below that it is weakening since the adjustment on the yield curve last month that sent the Government Bond yields to the highest level in years. That is the concern of the Global Economy the positive view. Right Goldman Sachs is out with the new call expecting the fed to start cutting rates some time in the Second Quarter of next year this is a note from the Economic Team which predicted the fed will reduce rates gradually. 25 basis points per quarter starting in june and stabilize them at 3 to 3. 25 . That is in line with the futures market goldman says core inflation has slowed enough to warrant one final rate hike likely in november, but warns of the significant risk that rates could still hold steady if inflation doesnt cool fast enough enough it is always a weird dynamic that we almost we didnt want a recession, but we thought one was necessary to the cool things off. When you are not getting one, you are back thinking inflation is not going to come down enough and we need more rate hikes. I think that is why the markets stalled out. As perverse as it is, when it seems you are not having a recession, the fed has more work to do. Exactly by the way, on the first rate cuts, the market has first rate cuts priced in this is not a news flash no one believes it. When goldman says it, i dont know you believe it more than the markets. You think now we begin the process of hearing about it from the fed and then having to explain it are they on board . The interesting thing is if the hike matters the way inflation is moving. That is what they do is passively tighten they want to keep the spread the same it is complicated. The economy doesnt contract credit by itself you think the fed has to come in and do more work exactly shares of u. S. Steel ive known that i used to buy like an idiot, u. S. Steel preferred eventually it bethlehem steel preferred. It never came back 5 billion with the market cap. Newcore took it what are the mills called . I remember the certain technology the joke are saying they should have sold the ticker to elon musk u. S. Steel is reviewing alternatives after receiving multiple unsolicited bids for all or part of the business. Cleveland cliffs proposed to buy u. S. Steel on june 28th in a private offer. This was surprising. Cleveland cliffs shares down 8 . The offer was rejected by u. S. Steel. The cash and stock offer would have valued the company at 7 billion. The ceo of Cleveland Cliffs is on squawk on the street in the 11 00 a. M. Hour. That is a 7 billion company. Cleveland cliffs. It would rarely come up in that discussion good on them if they feel they had a period of strength for the stocks you cant believe you would ever be talking about this seriously category the potential cage match with Mark Zuckerberg and elon musk appears to be off in the post on threads, as well as two or three other posts on the social media outlet, zuckerberg said elon isnt serious and it is time to move on i think that is funny that he is kind of throwing shade at elon for not being serious about a cage match was he getting played . Who thought this was a good idea they were going to go to the coliseum did you see the messages with walter i saw walter he said musk would not confirm a date then he said he needed surgery he asked to do a practice round. Zuckerbergs backyard. Zuckerberg will focus on competing with people who take the sport seriously. He does do the martial arts stuff. Elon is a big dude mark is not necessarily. It is like wwe i never took it seriously than wwe which is a huge moneymaker i think bombastic agent ari manuel they make money on it. Everybody knows it is fake is it real it is fun to think it could be real. Musk replied on x calling zuckerberg chicken joking that he cant eat at chickfila because that would be can tweeted an image of the text he received from musk at 4 40 a. M. Showing that musk proposed a practice bout at zuckerbergs house this week you dont watch movies i cant do any references. For everybody else. Whofor everybody who with understands me that is something in the social network. When Mark Zuckerberg said chicken to chickens. That was part of the horrible person he was. It was the guy who played spiderman. One character and he ratted out zuckerberg at harvard. He said chicken, chicken it is awful circle a fascinating snapshot. I love the tweet first of all an, you see elon is under the phone book in 2022 you see the interaction between musk and zuckerberg is fascinating. They seem friendly you wonder maybe they are. They are talking about we can do it here and we can do it there. It sounded like musk would be up for it. For people who are saying how horrible it was and terrible commentary on modern society lighten up odds are so slim it would happen. And you know, lighten up. Both guys are worth how much look at what they have done with the impact on the world . Each of them they dont need to prove anything to me the only time anyone has talked about threads in recent weeks is zuckerberg trolling musk on the platform musk is genius and zuckerberg has some benefit, too. I like musk im nothing like him in terms of non filters. I filter myself. He doesnt if i could do that thats why i respect him. He owns the damn social media site where he can do whatever he wants. I cant. I come close coming up, a busy week of Economic Data and retail earnings qua squawk planner is next futures right now are happy that kelly is here and im back to earth. In the green nasdaq up 59 s p. We will see if we can get back on track with this rally dont miss brian sullivans interview with president ial candidate ron desantis on last call tonight at 7 00 p. M. Squawk box is coming right back announcer this cnbc program is sponsored by ibm. Ibm. Lets create be more effic im listening. Well, with ibm, you can use software to help you connect and analyze data from hvacs to elevators to lights. What if we use aidriven insights to pinpoint inefficiency . Yep. And act on it. Saving energy, money. And emissions. Yup. Thats a big one. Now youve built Something Better for everyone. Thats the sustainability solution ibm and a Global Real Estate company created. What will you create . Ibm. Lets create. fan 1 there ya go thats what im talkin about what will you create . josh allen is this your plan to watch the game today . hero fan uh, yea. I have to watch my neighbors nfl sunday ticket. josh allen its not your best plan. But you know what is . Myplan from verizon. Switch now and theyll give you nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv, on them. hero fan this plan is amazing josh allen another amazing plan, backing away from here very slowly. fan 1 that was josh allen. fan 2 mmhm. vo for a limited time get nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv on us. A 449 value. Plus, get a free Samsung Galaxy z flip5. Only on verizon. Nice footwork. Man, youre lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. Now you can stream all your games like its nothing. Yes thats what im talking about. [ cheers ] running up and down that field looks tough. Its a pitch. Get way more into what youre into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. On this squawk planner, retail earnings. Home depot and target and tjx and cisco. Thursday brings walmart and coke parent tapestry. And as for Economic Data, retail sales and import and export prices for july. Wednesday is Housing Starts and the minutes from the recent fed meeting. On thursday, the closely watched jobless claims joining us on the market is barry bannister. You can clear up some of the discussion we had earlier, barry. Maybe your ears were burning glad to have you back on you were bullish for most of the rally, unlike 95 , probably of your peers you think we have seen the best nearterm that we will get it was always hard to have a traditional recession when you helicopter drop more money than you spend on world war ii in inflation adjusted dollars due to covid everybody was sitting on cash from corporates to individuals and there was more than enough reason why we could afford the inflation that we had. The issue now is if real wages rise, do we get productivity if we dont have productivity, we will have high core inflation which is called unit labor costs feeding through. If that is the case, the fed will have to sky tay higher for longer that is the question the market is waiting for an answer that is why the second half has been choppy since june. Its a tough one. Everybody thats making calls, barry, are not like us in their 30s or 40s. Do you remember something called stimulus does that ever work . I think we could do it, obviously, for a while and get high gdp, couldnt we . What normally happens is that eventually you have to pay the piper and Interest Rates go up and you dont have money left to do anything that you wanted to do in the first place. That is, in a nutshell, is that called bidenomics . Economies tend to be dogmatic i know every economic theory that made fame and fortune has applicable moments the stimulus if you pull it off in both directions, tighten when you should and loosen when you should you know, we added way too much demand particularly for goods. We didnt produce those goods. We helicopter dropped federally financed demand with debt on to the economy. Wages went up, but the inflation that was engendered what is bidenomics building it from the middle out . What do you think theyre talking about with bidenomics . Thats the other thing. When you mix the dogmatic economist with the impatience of politicians, you end up with a toxic mix. Politicians have to work on a twotofour year election cycle. This process may take a generation to change when you try to do it too quickly such as dropping this much money on the economy in a short period of time, you end up with distortions the fed also has distorted Interest Rates they are trying to make up for the fact they were distorting rates for 20 years by raising rates very aggressively the last year these things all take time they cause raucous in the market we are correcting mistakes that took years to develop. You are bullish because of all that money are you less bullish now because of the gravy train ends and realities of the world finally set in when will we get new alltime highs in the s p what year . Thats just it. If you look at october to june last october to june, we were bullish. Now im saying it is flat for the rest of the year i doubt inflation adjusted terms, meaning real termsad adjusted for cpi the last peak was december of 2021 in todays money terms, s p 500 index, which is 4,500 currently, it was 5,250 i doubt we see that for a couple more years we are saying flat the rest of the year we are doing tactical trades we are doing tech stocks and materials. We are not really in the market that has the sustained channel it is not a bull market any more it was for nine months now it is too late to make that call if somebody is trying to do so we muddled through at 2 . Do we get a recession . Do we get back to strong growth . What do we see in the next couple years as far as the economy . Ill tell you, joe, the problem is that by not having an economic reset like you associate with recession, you actually end up with inflation on the other side. As we bump up against resource constraints, we have a vertical supply curve and only so much labor. Prime age work force is pretty much fully employed now. 25 to 55 is the prime age. When you bump up against those, the fed could signal higher for longer which im interested in jackson hole because that is the message. They will talk not about the shortterm, but the longterm need to keep contained for higher for longer. When that occurs, the stock market would pull back and economic risk of recession you know inflation is multifaceted, but energy is one of the primary issues. That can come roaring back it has a little bit. That has me a little bit concerned. Stifel that is just one of your offices. That is a nice facility. Do you visit people out there . Do you visit people in the rankandfile . I pass it every day going to the lifetime it is a good office we have a big office in every major city new york, san francisco, baltimore, maryland. Come on down and visit there were also all right barry. Barry bannister. Sounds like a superhero. Is he bearish or bullbullish. Are you bearish, barry . Long term, you will have a hard time making what you are making right now on stock treasuries i dont know. Im always bullish long term stocks go up you still buy . You still sleep with the light on in treasuries barry, thank you. Coming up, Sam Bankmanfried is behind bars after the judge revoked bail. Here are the big efgest wins and losers in the s p. Squawk box will be right back. Earn and keep trust. Build and maintain financial strength and stability. Deliver solutions that meet complex needs. Do right by customers, clients, and policyholders, always. Repeat daily for over one hundred and seventy years. Massmutual. Partnering with financial professionals, benefits brokers, and institutions. Hows the chicken . The prawns are delicious. Oh, i have a shellfish allergy. One prawn. Very good. Did i say chicken wrong . Tired of people not listening to what you want . Its truffle season ah thats okay. Never enough truffles. How much are they . Its a lot. Oh okay im good, that its like a priceless piece of art. Enjoy. Or when they sell you what they want . Yeah. The more we understand you, the better we can help you. Thats what u. S. Bank is for. Huge relief. Yeah. This thing, its making me get an ice bath again. What do you mean . These straps are mindblowing they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. And you are . Im an investor. In invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to. Nasdaq 100 innovations like. Wearable training optimization tech. Uh, how long are you. Im done. Im okay. You cant buy great conversations or moments that matter, but you can invest in them. At t. Rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. T. Rowe price, invest with confidence. Welcome back lets get the latest on the wildfire disaster in hawaii. The death hole has reached 96 mauis police chief says they searched 3 of the homes a Class Action Lawsuit alleges it could have been avoided if the utilities upgrade thd the gd it did say high wind protocols were followed. Fbi teams are on the scene to investigate the cause of the fire coming up, President Biden requesting 40 billion in emergency funding from congress. We break it down and talk about the bidenomics next. Squawk box will rhtacbeig bk. Power e trades easytouse tools make complex trading less complicated. Custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. E trade from Morgan Stanley. He snores like an angry rhino. Youve never heard an angry rhino. And stay on top of the market. Baby i hear one every night. Every night. Okay. Ill work on that. Save 50 on the sleep Number Limited Edition smart bed. Plus, 36 month financing on select smart beds. Shop now only at sleep number. Mlb chooses tmobile for business for 5g solutions. To not only enhance the fan experience, but to advance how the game is played. Nows the time to see what americas largest 5g network can do for your business. Good morning welcome back to squawk box live from Nasdaq Market site in times square we have pressure from higher bond yields and selling pressure in japan and china overnight lawmakers face a ticking clock when they return from labor day recess they have an appropriations bill to pass to keep the government running. President biden is seeking emergency spending for ukraine aid and Disaster Relief and border and immigration efforts joining us now is Donna Edwards and judd gregg we said we would talk about bidenomics i am still trying to get a firm grasp. We understand washington and