Vaccine. Finding a compromise. Agrees to slowly add more Oil Next Year after days of an stoxx. The Saudi Arabian energy miss mr. Process excruciating. Happy friday. It is excruciating for some of those journalists who stayed up late for that press conference. Look at where we trade friday morning. The s p 500 a bit over concerns roll outow pfizer will that vaccine. We are pushing a little higher this morning on the futures. Is this durable . What stands out is a record in the u. S. , a grim record of high infections as well as hospitalizations. Hospitalizations at the highest rate we have seen the entire time this pandemic. With rates increasing, that means more lockdowns of economies in cities and states. Gavin newsom in california warning california they could be next. The labor market, we will get a read on today. The november jobs report will come out today. Lets take a look at brent crude, testing 50 a barrel, 1. 9 percent higher. You had the opec plus meeting yesterday. Brexit talks, we are in the they were in the verge of a breakthrough until negotiations hit a lastminute snag. How serious is the u. K. Backlash over these demands coming from the side of the eu . That is a difficult question to answer because the action over the past 24 hours has been hectic and we have had conflicting signals. A lot of this is the optics that come with a deal. It needs to be seen and perceived as being difficult. Last night, the u. K. Government briefed there had been new elements brought over to the table that they were not expecting. This was becoming a problem for the talks. The europeans are denying this, saying nothing new has been brought to the table. It is simply that talks have been stuck. This came 24 hours after the french hinted the europeans need to negotiate from a position of strength. They should not give too much away. What i would say is if you take this into account and what it adds up to is there has not been that breakthrough needed for a level playing field. Many of the people i speak to tell me the only way this is going to get resolved is a phone call between the Prime Minister and the french president , emmanuel macron. That has not happened yet and hinting to a potential block in those talks. Annmarie which of course u. K. Gdp, but of a useful bargaining chip when it comes to the french. Do i walk in here monday morning and do we have an agreement . I would love to be able to answer that question. To know whether we can sleep or not over the weekend, but it is very unclear on that front. You need to really focus on purely because he is in london. We are expecting him to come back to brussels. There could be two scenarios. One in which he decides there is enough to go ahead with a potential deal, to brief the eu ambassadors and take that to the european leaders. If he does not do that, that means we are far away from a deal and more talks are needed. What i would stress and i am being reminded of is even if we do get to this point by monday there is a deal with david frost, this is a technical deal. This will have to be approved by european leaders. That is a political decision that may take us to the european summit next week. Get some rest before your next 48 or 72 hours. Maria and brussels, thank you. Joining us is the head of Investment Strategy at our nbc rnbc Investment Strategy. If we look at the impact of very rudimentary deal, the impact of such a deal on the economy over the next 15 years would mean the economy would be smaller by about 6. 5 than it would have been had we stayed in a single market. For no deal, the economy would about 9. 5 . Y from that point of view, not much difference really. If we do have a deal, it would be a basis on which to build on. It would be something that both regions could rely on in order to resolve inevitable differences. Years, months of acrimony. Istainly a to mentor he deal better and we should get that compared to no deal. In terms of the impact on the economy, theres a lot of discussion but less discussion about what is in the deal and it is going to be a very basic deal if we have one. Annmarie that is a good point in terms of the impact to the economy. What about the impact to Financial Markets if there is no deal . Is it going to wreak havoc . Is a positivet for Financial Markets as they are positioned for some kind of deal to come through. You would expect weakness in the pound, 57 . Suffernomy would initially, particularly at a time when the economy is already so weak. For this year is a contraction of 11 . If you put an additional challenge on top of this, with covid, a very difficult winter. Annmarie i want to ask about what is going on with the pound, floating around the 135 level. It is down versus the euro, which is a telling cross for the brexit story. Does that trend for euro pound continue even without a deal . So again, without a deal, you would expect weakness all around for the pound. If we do get a deal, we would expect a small rebound. Again, a lot has been discounted interms of positive outlook the currency already. To the downside at this stage. Annmarie so potentially more downside, less on the upside. What about u. K. Equities . What does this mean for the ftse 100 . Much like the currency has deal,nted in a potential u. K. Equities have really lagged over the last four years since the referendum. There one of the worst performers in the world. They are one of the worst performers in the world. Valuations are very far from their historical averages. So we recently upgraded the u. K. Equities to a market weight position. Very difficult year this year. Many companies had to slash dividends. We think maybe next year dividends will be reinstated. In maybe not in the First Quarter but this is a one year view. If you take this view, by the end of the year, the economy will have started to adjust to this new reality. Discountsstock market usually six month ahead of time, what might happen, we think it is worth having some exposure to u. K. Equities and portfolios. In portfolios. Annmarie i am looking year to date, the ftse 100 is down 14 , one of the worst in terms of indices across europe. I want to get your sense on the stimulus package that poland and hungary potentially are going to veto. You think at the end they will capitulate and come in line . Ofyes, so this is a case negotiations to the last minute. I think a compromise will be found. Remember, these two countries have received a lot of eu funds over the last well, two years. If they veto this package, they are in effect shooting themselves in the foot. They will not receive funds. We dothey might be think there will be a compromise. There might be some adjustment in terms of warding but this rescue package we believe will go through one way or another. There is a lot of conviction it is important. It is Angela Merkels achievement, it is her legacy. She will fight very hard for it, and our view. Rbc wealthrom management, she stays with us. Thank you for joining us. Laura wright has your first word news. Laura pumping an extra 500,000 barrels a day from january, it comes after almost a week of negotiations that exposed a rift at the heart of the cartel. Ministers will hold monthly consultations to decide on the next step. Ryanair has ordered 75 versions of boeing 737 max. The transaction is the biggest in two years for the plane model. It comes as a vote of confidence after boeing grounded the max for 20 months, following two deadly crashes. Recoverye faith in the of the industry. If anything, relative to early productions projections we made with respect to recovery, developed with potential Global Distribution, if anything, accelerates our view of recovery. Laura denmark is to stop offering new Oil Explorations in the north sea as part of a goal to become fossil fuel free. The country is the european produceriggest crude and says oil output will end by 2050. The decision will cost about 13 billion krona. This is bloomberg. Laura wright in london, thank you so much. Coming up, as the u. S. Grapples with record coronavirus cases, president elect biden says he will ask all americans to wear a mask for 100 days. Just 100 days, not a lifetime. That is next. This is bloomberg. My inclination, the first day i am inaugurated, is to say i am going to as the public for 100 days to mask. Just 100 days. Not forever, just 100 days. I think we will see a significant reduction if that occurs. With vaccinations and maxing masking, to drive down numbers considerably. Bidenie president elect in mask wearing. It this comes as the u. S. Continues to see hospitalizations and deaths from the pandemic. The s p slipped amid a dow jones report that pfizer scaledback vaccine production targets this year after difficulty securing materials. A spokesperson released a statement saying the scale up of the raw material supply chain took longer than expected. For more, our bloomberg intelligent Senior Analyst and director of research joins us over the phone. Good morning to you. This news in pfizer paints a picture it is going to be a bumpy road to get the vaccine out into the public. In terms of the Raw Materials, is this video syncretic to pfizer or does it show a problem other companies are going to grapple with . The first thing to say is this thing about the 50 million doses being available in 2020 was known for quite a while. I think that is important to highlight. Pfizer made the change to its promise several weeks back. But we never knew what the issue was. It highlights it is something to do with the availability of the ingredients. And of course it can affect any company, vaccine production is a complex process. You need several ingredients, just like any other drug. We have heard many executives say you have to make sure your manufacturing is up to scratch. This highlights something we have to watch out for. Annmarie what about the modernist study . Study . At moderna looking at some of the headlines, it says the vaccine potential for durable immunity. It is one step forward. Ands based on a short paper the new england journal of medicine, very short meaning two pages. They are data as following subjects they had in the phase one trial. Looking at immune durability. A basic analysis of antibodies shows 119 days after the first injection, people still had pretty high levels of antibodies. We do expect that to go down. The thing they need to show down is that thing called immune memory and that is coming soon. Annmarie you know as well as i do the Financial Markets are bullish on this vaccine coming into play. What are the biggest risks to the downside of the vaccine narrative . The equation left ahead of us is a very complex one we need to solve to get out of this pandemic. People taking shots in their arms, getting the vaccine disturbed did and not wasting so many of the doses because obviously they perish if they are in the wrong place. People coming back for their second shots. Manufacturing going perfectly well. You put these in an equation and you get something that is a lot to herdn easily getting immunity. So i think people have to temper their enthusiasm a bit. Annmarie you did a q a with Bloomberg Opinion and you were asked if you would take the vaccine because of whether it is safe. What is your take . Vaccines tend to show their worst side effects if they have any within the first couple of months of the dosing. The very rare side effects can occur any time during the vaccine program. Im confident with the data we have heard so far there is no major issue, at least near term. Annmarie president elect biden said he would take it in public, stills predators sir with us. I look at the vaccine narrative. Pushing up the markets. Is it durable . California may go back into lockdown. Hospitalization is at a record in the u. S. Do you still want to be overweight u. S. Equities . Yes, we do. It is going to be a difficult winter. Bitu. S. Opened up a little with the thanksgiving holidays and there is probably going to be some repercussions, further repercussions and terms of infection rates. Here in europe, we are looking at their experience and anticipating what might happen after we relaxed some of the rules ahead of christmas. There is no doubt the winter is going to be difficult. Though thereeven are implementation issues and doubts and difficulties, this point to as potential recovery in the spring and summer in a way no vaccine would not. We do think the prospects are better with the vaccine. It is going to help. We saw back in the summer that the u. S. Economy really snapped back into shape quite quickly. It will suffer through the winter, but it is a very resilient economy so yes, we do advocate and overweight and Global Equities in general for 2021. In Global Equities in general for 2021. With think it is going to be the asset class annmarie the u. S. Economy is rebounding, but j powell points out more than 10 million americans are out of work every the november report expected to record the smallest gain in seven months. Are these risks still not big enough to maybe want to pull back a little bit . Possible we will have some volatility. When we say overweight equities, we do not expect equities to move up in a straight line. But if you have a oneyear view, we would say make sure you have a position and build in this position in weakness on weakness if weakness arrives. Annmarie you still buy this massive move into vallow vla ue . Value . We think you should have some exposure to value because value has underperformed. Perhaps highquality financials would make sense in a portfolio. We think there is value in particular in health care. Some selective industrial have some which benefits from longterm growth trends, can be of interest. Annmarie thank you for joining us this friday morning. The head of Investment Strategy at rbc wealth management. Coming up, how low can it go . Yields hit ad record low. Appetite growing for these risky assets. That is coming up. Good morning. This is bloomberg. Annmarie 6 20 five in the city of london. This is daybreak europe. Have hit record lows for the second time this year. Investors are pouring money into risky debt. Our investors just not worried some of these Companies May end up having to fall into bankruptcy . How sustainable are these types of gains . Investors are confident the default cycle will be much more mild than we have been expecting. Part of this is fueled by the vaccine progress. That will help save some of these companies. Things that at one point were declared dead, from cruise line operators to airlines, those are the types of lawns we are seeing benefit from this rally in junk bonds. It is not just investors that are confident, it is s p 500 as well. Rating companies have pulled back in their estimates for defaults next year. We have to keep this in mind when we look at the rally in the low yields we are seeing in junk bonds. Despite the fact that there are expectations for pickup and growth, despite the fact there are inflation and expectations, u. S. Treasury yields cannot breach 1 . Which means highyield assets are attractive. Annmarie speaking of the fed, if there were put pullback in support for corporate debt, would that make the environment less favorable for highyield bonds . When Steve Mnuchin made the announcement, it barely moved the market at all. A lot of Portfolio Managers we have been speaking with have not used much anyway. If it does have an effect, it will be mild. This arc it cannot already hold up on its own. Plane devilst advocate. This does mean highyield is not attractive. They are commending you going to investment grade. Annmarie coming up, oil optimism. Crude getting a boost. . 93 higher. Opec with a critical agreement on this is bloomberg. Its down to the wire, the teams been working around the clock. Weve had to rethink our whole approach. Were going to give togetherness. Logistically, its been a nightmare. Im not sure its going to work. Itll work. I didnt know you were listening. More voluminous hair instantly. All it takes is just one session at hairclub. Introducing xtrands. Xtrands adds hundreds or even thousands of hair strands to your existing hair at the root. Theyre personalized to match your own natural hair color and texture, so theyll blend right in for a natural, effortless look. Call in the next five minutes and when you buy 500 strands, you get 500 strands free. Call right now. upbeat music annmarie good morning. It is 6 30 a. M. In the city of london. Daybreak. Oomberg brexit talks hit a lastminute breakdown as the k warns of fresh demand. Uk warns of fresh demand. Attention turns to novembers job report. Finding a compromise. Opec plus agrees to slowly add more Oil Next Year after 10 stocks. The Saudi Arabian energy ms. Mr. Called the process quote excruciating. Good morning to you. 6 30. Happy friday. Lets look at the trade this morning. Are the gains durable . The market a little on edge as we await the november payrolls report, the last of the year. Up moreasian benchmarks than 0. 5 . S p futures up zero point 2 . We did have a little bit of a decline yesterday over concerns about pfizer and how they are going to tap the Raw Materials needed for that vaccine. Oil on a tear. We are flirting with 50 a barrel. This comes after that deal. The pound, 134. 62. Yesterday, we were so close to 135. Michel barnier heading back to brussels. Oil, extending gains after opecplus reached an agreement to ease production cuts. This comes after days of tent negotiations. The group will be adding 500,000 barrels a day of crude. The russian Prime Minister said oil will be kept under review with month the consultations of members. In positivectoring and negative factors. The magnitude of the adjustment at this point is limited to 0. 5 Million Barrels per day. Now is a chief oil analyst. Good morning to you. I want to start with the market and then we will get into some of the politics. 500,000 barrels a day is not a lot. Two very share will be large carriers, basically. The market seems to be absorbing it. The base case when everyone that everyone was pricing in his they would hold on to we were, no supply for three months. Wise crude higher this morning . I think that is exactly what has changed over the course of the last two weeks or so. Remember when you were talking about no extension, in earl