Raised their sentences on nine to 15 years. Now bbc news, a discussion on the challenges of avoiding short term in modern society and how to prioritise the well being of future generations hosted by the author and journalist, linda geddes. Hello, and welcome to bbc futures long termism how to think in deep time bbc future at hay festival well we are taking a longer view from the 21st century and encourage more long term thinking and also encourage some of our politicians and policymakers to do the same. With me today we have some excellent panellists. Roman kaczmarek, a public philosopher and author who is writing a book about long term inking and the challenges facing democracy. Sophie howell, the future generations commissioner for wales was trying to encourage our politicians and policymakers to try and take that view of the impact of their decisions for future generations and all their descendants and martin rees, one of the uks most eminent scientists, a member of the house of lords and author of a new book, on the future, prospects of humanity which takes the reader on a thrilling journey through the coming century and beyond. A very warm welcome to all of you. Before we have four panellists, we will hear a short word from bbc future who are going to tell us a bit more about why we should be taking this longer view of civilisation. Our societies today are shaped by short termism. In the relentless twitter filled world of 2019, the present moment commands all our attention. We are saturated with knowledge and standards of living of mostly never been higher but today, it is difficult to look beyond the next news cycle. If time can be sliced, it is only getting finer, with over shorter periods now shaping our world. In politics, the dominant timeframe is a term of office. Fashion and culture, a season. Office. Fashion and culture, a season. Corporations, a quarter. On the internet, it is minutes and on the internet, it is minutes and on the financial markets, mere milliseconds. Meanwhile the planet is walk warming, antibiotic resista nce is walk warming, antibiotic resistance looms and inequality rises. There is no more timely example in our slow response to Climate Change. This year schoolchildren from around the world have been campaigning for a longer term perspective and that their right to inherit a safer, cleaner planet than the one given to their elders. As the young climate activist Greta Thunberg told politicians recently, tackling Climate Change involves ditching short term ways and using cathedral thinking. We may lay the foundation without knowing how to build the ceiling she said. But for many of us in adulthood how many of us can say we are thinking about the well being of future generations and those not yet born. How often do we contemplate the impact of our decisions as they rippling to the decades and centuries ahead. We need a deeper perspective on time. If we are to flourish or thousands or even millions of years, then we must learn how to extend our frame of reference beyond the present moment. Its time to look at the world and our descendants to a much longer lens. Here we are at the hay festival just a few days after children from around the world took pa rt children from around the world took part in more school strikes protesting against our inability to act on Climate Change. Even primary age kids are getting in on the act. At my kids school in bristol, the school organise their own protests so kids didnt have to take that time off school and it was really well attended and this is just a clear exa m ple of well attended and this is just a clear example of the Younger Generation calling out to the older generation calling out to the older generation and saying, please help us generation and saying, please help us act to protect our futures but yet on Climate Change and many other issues, it seems we are really not very good at taking that will give you. Roman, you would go a step further. You have argued that we are essentially colonising the future and robbing future generations in the process. Thats right. I think we all know that we live in an age of other log pathological short termism short termism no politicians cannot see beyond the next week, when nations bicker around conference tables, focusing on near term interest while the planet burns. We are constantly tweeting, dressing that buy now button. But its exactly as you say, we have colonised the future, we treat the future like a distant colonial outpost devoid of people where we dump our equal log ecological degradation, risk, Nuclear Waste and public debt and its a little bit like the way when britain colonised australia, they drew on this legal doctrine known as terranova lias, empty land, so they took it as if there were no Indigenous People there. Of course there were. We have shifted from terror malleus to tempus nullius where there is no future and we rape and pillage the future and we dont think about future generations. I used to be a political scientist and keep teaching comparative theory and politics and it never once occurred to me that we disenfranchise future generations in the same way we disenfranchised slaves and women in the past, we give them no political power, no political voice and that exactly what greta and your kids and my kids have been protesting about in these climate strikes so we are at the moment right now where we need to engage in an intergenerational Liberation Movement and liberate those future generations. Sophie, as future generations. Sophie, as future generations commissioner for wales, you are generations commissioner for wales, you a re really generations commissioner for wales, you are really at the sharp end of trying to encourage people to take a longer view and especially politicians. Id love to hear more about how your role came to be and what it involves. Wales is the only country in the world which has legislation which protects the interests of future generations through our well being future generations act which was passed into law by our National Assembly in 2015 so it does a number of things but i suppose the overarching premise is that all of our policymakers in wales, it applies to all of our public services, a health board, local authorities and National Bodies and really significantly the Welsh Government themselves have to demonstrate how they are taking decisions which meet todays needs that compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs. You dont have any powers to force people to act. |j cant force anyone to do anything or force government to stop doing something. But i have whats called review powers, name and shame. You have an institution responsible for advocating on behalf of future generations, which is an institution established by government and by our National Assembly, they do have to set up and take notice. What i like more powers . Yes, iwould, who wouldnt . An interesting case study, the first of future generations commissioner in the world was in israel, he had powers to actually veto legislation as it was going through parliament. Interestingly, he became so challenging to the government that they abolished him and his position after his first term so some difficult inks to navigate out. Martin, as a member of the house of lords, you have the ability to influence politicians to some extent. Not very much. Youve also been writing a book about the long term future of our society and some things from Climate Change to overpopulation to artificial intelligence. How do you feel we can shake politicians out of this short term way of thinking . shake politicians out of this shortterm way of thinking . I think its great that we have these campaigning schoolkids, thats great because that raises awareness and it would be shameful if we left a depleted world for future generations, especially when we mind how much we owe to the heritage of generations past but of course there isa generations past but of course there is a problem, politicians focus on the parochial and local and focus on getting re elected expect re elected and i know people have been advisors to government and they dont have direct impact, the politicians agenda, so the only way this can happen is if the public are made aware of this, thats why these protests by young people are important because politicians do respond to what is in their inboxes and whats in the press. What we have to do is make sure they can ta ke have to do is make sure they can take these long term decisions without losing votes. Let me give you two examples of this. Four years ago, there was a paper encyclical, the first time a pope said we had an obligation to the environment long term and that a huge effect, especially in latin america, africa, east asia whether pope has a billion followers, making it easier to get consensus at the paris climate conference. That was great. Got a standing ovation at the un for this more recently in parochial e, mr michael gove would not have been exercised about non reusable drinking straws, legislating that, but it not been for the blue planet programmes fronted by our secular pope, david attenborough, who energise the public. Doesnt darren buy a problem . The Plastic Straws issueis buy a problem . The Plastic Straws issue is interesting. In response to public outcry and so on, its a token sound bite, weve banned Plastic Straws but actually what we need to be looking at is a circular economy, reducing our use of plastic, not just economy, reducing our use of plastic, notjust finding me sort of small interventions. I completely agree with that but we need the radical changes in the economic field but also the political field. I sort of see your position almost like a first step, the bridge vegetable radical changes in democracy because one of the conundrums of this long term issue is do we really need enlightened despots and dictators, many people have talked about that stop i dont think theres there is any tradition of benign dictators, its radically transforming democracy. There is the future Design Movement when they bring together citizens assemblies and they get half the citizens in a city to think about how they deal with the problems today, and the other half is given these ceremonial kimonos, these robes, and they are told they are citizens from 2060 and they then make policies for the city and it turns out the citizens from 2060 make policies which are much more radical, much more progressive and this movement now is campaigning to be successful in getting local governments with a final view to having a ministry of future. I think we need Citizen Assembly models like theyve had in ireland, for example, to represent the views of future generations. Do you think its necessary to have some degree of short term pain for long term gain or is there a way of having the best of both worlds . I think there are ways of having the best of both worlds. In the Climate Change arena, if we accelerate research and development into clean energy and speeded up so it can be adopted more quickly, that is again for the world but if i could express a paradox, i spoke last week in a cathedral, and what strikes me then is that the people who built ely cathedral, they thought the world would end in 1000 years. Their horizon was very limited in space as well but they built a creedal cathedral that wouldnt be finished in a lifetime and it seems paradoxical that we would have these much broader horizons in time and space but are more short term but there is a reason. People in the middle ages may have thought the world would end in 1000 years but they put the lives of their children and grandchildren would be the same as there is thats why they thought they grandchildren would appreciate the cathedral when it was finished was now of course, we have no idea what our lives expect the lives will be like for our children and grandchildren. If you look further ahead. Genetic modification in all these things will change human cathedrals. They can invest in the long term. This cathedral idea. The other people say we need to have this vision of creating things and making investments but we will never see the benefits. There is a real value in that. Its not cathedral thinking but it is still thinking. Many people might know that in 1858. Was one of the great political changes in this country. It was called the great stink. Followed decades of people in london dying of cholera. The thames was polluted with sewerage. The thames was polluted with sewerage. What happened in the summer sewerage. What happened in the summer of 1858 was that the stench was the smell came into the newly rebuilt Parliament Building in politicians literally couldnt breathe. It was so bad. After ignoring the issue of sewerage, this kickstarted them to invest massively in the Sewerage System sojoseph bazalg ette in the Sewerage System sojoseph bazalgette spent so much time building the Sewerage System. Why does Greta Thunberg say, your houses on fire . Its part of sewer thinking that we need to build a sense of emergency or we wont do anything. Roman, you have been making a case for rethinking representative democracy. Do you feel democracy needs to change . I feel democracy is dying, and the kind of form we have today should die. Representative democracy was only invented a couple of centuries ago, at a time when we we re of centuries ago, at a time when we were in the ecological era known as the holocene, when we had a stable climates but now we are in the anthropocene, when we have changed the climate. Our Political Institutions were not designed to deal with these global problems. If you want to invent a Political Organisation to create global agreement on Climate Change, you would never invent nationstates. Thats mad. You need things like these citizens assemblies, or future citizens, juries, things like that. I think we need to think about how do we give voice to young people . One of the ways it has happened in the us is that there are campaigns, legal campaigns, to give rights, constitutional rights, to future people. A bit difficult in this country where there is no written constitution, but in the European Union and other places it is possible to enshrine the rights of future people. It sounds mad, how do you give rights to people who dont even exist . Yet we can do it. It is just a legal mechanism, and there are just a legal mechanism, and there a re battles just a legal mechanism, and there are battles going on to do this right now. Exactly what our legislation is designed to do, and i suppose, perhaps not enough, but to give me some power to try to enforce that. Representative democracy comes back to the people that we are representing, doesnt it . So actually, as a public, we fundamentally need, i think, to change the way that we think. We are currently spending about 50 of our entire budget going into the nhs, which i love as much as everyone else, but actually it is a National Illness Service. We need to take money from the National Illness Service and put it into a National Well being service to service and put it into a National Well being service to keep people well being service to keep people well in the first place. Those sorts of decisions are not that popular. So there is a need for, you know, a big population that will kind of discussion about how we start thinking, planning, and doing the future. Something at the local and city level, but we need something at a global level, surely, as well, for climate and energy, just like we have a world health organization. Otherwise it will be only these huge commercial conglomerates which have a global reach. We have got to have some international, publicly supported organisations to compete with them and control them. Supported organisations to compete with them and control themlj com pletely with them and control themlj completely agree with that, and i also agree with my ten year old daughter, who said to me the other day, she said, im not given a vote in the european elections. She said, so, why dont i asked granny if she will vote for who i want . And lets just swap will vote for who i want . And lets just swa p votes . Will vote for who i want . And lets just swap votes . And i thought, but such a really good idea. Applause. I would love to see a movement where anyone under the age of 16 is given anyone under the age of 16 is given a vote by someone over the age of 60. I think, even if a vote by someone over the age of 60. Ithink, even if they a vote by someone over the age of 60. I think, even if they are not actually given their votes, just having a discussion between the Younger Generation and the older generation about where they would like things to move might be interesting. Ok, so we have talked about the coming century, but lets presume out further. Zoom out. Martin, looking even further ahead, thousands of years or even millions of years into the future, where do you see civilisation heading . Will be even be here at all . Well, i think the important point is that this century is special. It is a century when, for the first time, we can change human beings themselves. With genetic modification and cyber technology, at with genetic modification and cyber technology, et cetera. Whereas in the past, evolution of human beings and their characters happened on a slow, darwinian timescale. Now it is going to happen much quicker. I do think this is a real game changer, because we can read the literature written 2000 years ago by classical authors and see their artefacts and admire them. Human nature was the same then as now. But i think there is no reason to think that any intelligences a few centuries from now will have any emotional residences with us. They may be quite different entities, because the change in future is going to be a sort of secular intelligent design, rather than just evolution. And so human beings themselves, here on earth and perhaps by them far beyond the earth, are going to change much faster. And even though the timeline ahead is even longer than the time that has elapsed up until now on the earth, for a half billion years, things are going to change faster. And that is why it is completely impossible to predict things 1000 years ahead, still less 1 million ori billion years ahead, because the changes going to be faster than ever. We seem to be having some quite apocalyptic rain, if anybody is wondering what the noises. Ok, iwould if anybody is wondering what the noises. Ok, i would like to ask all of you, how optimistic are you about the future . You can give it a mark out of ten, if you like. Martin . |j out of ten, if you like. Martin . ama out of ten, if you like. Martin . am a technical optimist but a political pessimist, and that i think we already have the technology to make a better world for the 7. 5 billion People Living on it now, and the gap between the way things are and the way they could be is an ethical indictment of us, collectively. So i am pessimistic that we will use technology optimally, but that is not a reason for not trying. We have got to try and hope that we can avoid the downsides of new technology, and avoid to spoiling the environment and make sure that we leave a heritage for future generations, just as important as the heritage, sewers, and all about left to us by the victorians. Despiling the environment. Well, if you spend a lot of time with children, young people, who are our future generations, there are obviously people become spent time with because they are not born yet, but if you do that, as i do, i have five future generations of my own, i feel fairly optimistic that actually, they have got the right answers and they have got the right answers and the right mindset and a lot of the right solutions, to be solving some of the big challenges ahead. But i would agree with you, in terms of the current political climate, i feel fairly pessimistic. About these sort of day to day decisions. But thenl sort of day to day decisions. But then i think, internationally, there isa then i think, internationally, there is a Real Movement forming around this. And when you see Jacinda Arderns government in new zealand having this big focus on well being on having this big focus on well being on the well being budget, not just these Narrow Economic measures. You have got the welsh future generations act, parts of which have been picked up by countries across the world, the canadian government have just amended their legislation to putting this of future generations. There is a Movement Building in the netherlands to do something similar. Gibraltar, a tiny area, but going to have legislation. And there is some of the long term thinking that is coming without legislation, but coming from other countries across the world. I think there is a movement, a movement growing. Butjust there is a movement, a movement growing. But just having there is a movement, a movement growing. Butjust having the kind of governance around it, it is not enough. It has to flow through to the day to day decisions but Decision Makers are making all the time. Roman, how about you . One word makes me optimistic, and it is this word. Death. Human beings die. We alldie, word. Death. Human beings die. We all die, but we all want to leave a legacy, which is the other important word, apart from death. We want to find ways of being remembered well by future generations. We have a choice about the kind of legacies we wa nt to choice about the kind of legacies we want to leave. We can leave an egoistic legacy and get a wing of the National Gallery named after us, which is what the russian oligarchs wa nt which is what the russian oligarchs want in terms of legacy. We can have a familial legacy which we all feel when you have children and you want to leave things to your own progeny. But i think we can also make a step from there to a kind of sense of a transcendent legacy, that we want to be remembered well by all future generations, and i think there is some very beautiful in the new zealand maori concept, which is called wa ka pa pa, that zealand maori concept, which is called wakapapa, that term for intergenerational tea. This idea we are all in a great chain of being, connected to people in the past and animals and plants in the past, and to the future. Right now the light happens to be shining on us, on this short moment. But if we have a sense ofa short moment. But if we have a sense of a longer now, a bigger sense of time going into the past and the future, then we can feel the living and the dead and the future all here in the room with us, and that concept of legacy, i think, is our ultimate hope. Well, im afraid that is all we have time for today. Thank you very much to our panellists, martin rees, Sophie Howell and roman kaczmarek. And thank you to our audience. I hope everybody is thinking more long term. For more stories about long term thinking and a deeper view of civilisation, had to bbc. Com future. A deeper view of civilisation, had to bbc. Com futu re. A deeper view of civilisation, had to bbc. Com future. Head to. Hello there. Things are warming up this weekend right across the board. Itll certainly be noticeable across southern areas, where the humidity will also gradually increase, and into next week, certainly late on sunday, the threat of thundery showers increases as well. For the weekend, fine for most of us. Lots of dry weather around. We start this morning on a cool note outside town. The Single Digits in one or two places. The pressure chart reveals high pressure. This will be the driving force for the fine weather, certainly for the first half of the weekend, but this low pressure system will come into play later across the south west. Lots of sunshine up and down the country this morning, into the afternoon, cloud will tend to build up in places. Could see an isolated shower pretty much anywhere, but northern scotland will see a scattering of showers, i think, through the morning and into the afternoon. Temperatures higher than we have seen over the last few days. High 20s for england and wales. 19 to 2a in the central belt of scotland. Into saturday evening and saturday night, most places will stay dry. Maybe still a few showers across the far north of scotland. We could see clouds just building up across the very far west of the country. Notice the temperatures, they are starting to import warmer and more humid air. Double figure values for all. A warmer start to the day on sunday. Plenty of sunshine around and still a few showers across the northern isles. Then this weather front starts to push in across wales and the south west of england later in the day, to bring outbreaks of rain. To the north and east it should stay dry, feeling even warmer, 2a 25 across the south east, high teens further north. This is the pressure chart as we head through sunday night. High pressure Still Holding on across the north of the country, with this low pressure and its warmer front continuing to move north and east. The rain will pop up across southern and Western Areas late on sunday. During sunday night and into the early hours of monday, there is the potential of some really heavy and thundery rain moving north. Hit and miss, torrential downpours, some areas could see the risk of some surface water flooding. It will turn warm and muggy by the end of the night across southern areas. Monday, heavy and thundery rain spilling its way slowly northwards, attracting much of scotland. The very far north of england as well. Further south the sunshine could come out, but that could spark off further thundery showers, were really importing warmer humid air during monday afternoon and we could see the high 20 celsius in the south. Still fairly warm in the north, despite all the rain. As we head through much of next week it stays warm, even hot, in southern areas. With the high humidity, thundery showers are likely to continue to be a risk. There are warnings in force for this, so head to the website to check those out. Hello, this is bbc news, im ben bland. Our top stories President Trump says the us military was set to retaliate against iran but he changed his mind ten minutes before planned strikes. You know what, they shot down an unmanned drone, plane, whatever you want to call it, and here we are sitting with 150 dead people. We hear from the we hearfrom the british we hear from the british teenager who travelled to syria to join the Islamic State group as his parents are found guilty of funding terrorism. I did what i did, buti made a big mistake, and thats what happened. I regretted what i did. It was a case that led to huge protests in spain, five man jailed for attacking a woman and sharing video of it