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“We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April”: Reflections on a Failed Prediction Surgical oncologist Dr. Marty Makary predicted in February that we would have herd immunity to COVID-19 in April. In late July now, it is clear that we do not, but Dr. Makary continues to make dubious and outright incorrect statements about COVID-19 on national platforms to which he has access. Why can’t he just admit that his prediction had been in error? Shares A prelude: “Where is the humility in our public health officials to simply say we were wrong?” On May 25 th 2021, The New York Times published an article that criticized the CDC for saying that “less than 10 percent” of Covid-19 transmission occurred outdoors. It correctly said that “Saying that less than 10 percent of Covid transmission occurs outdoors is akin to saying that sharks attack fewer than 20,000 swimmers a year. (The actual worldwide number is around 150.) It’s both true and deceiving.”

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