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Hopes for a fast recovery are lifting market volatility and threatening record highs in stocks.
First it led to a rise in Treasury yields, making bonds more appealing than highly valued stocks.
With inflation fears rising, investors are dumping tech stocks, weighing on major indexes.
The US stock market is at a turning point, and the economic recovery is probably why.
For investors holding last year s hottest stocks, a likely strong rebound in the economy isn t looking so welcome.
After tech giants drove indexes to record highs last year, the prospect of a full reopening has dented the sector s appeal. Investors began dumping Treasurys at a faster pace in February as the likelihood of a new stimulus package raised expectations for near-term inflation. Cash was pulled from defensive assets and pushed into stocks most likely to thrive during a reopening.
Your weekly outlook
The past week in the stock market saw a few more flashes of the long-awaited rotation out of mega-cap tech stocks, and into beaten-down value names. On Monday the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 bottomed out more than 10% below recent highs before saving some face later in the week. Many popular meme stocks were collateral damage.
But the Nasdaq may have an ace in the hole in the form of the $1,400 stimulus checks due to hit Americans bank accounts as soon as this weekend. A recent survey from Deutsche Bank found that half of all people between the ages of 25 and 34 plan to use the money to buy stocks.
At least three market conditions are supportive of stock-picking now, according to Morgan Stanley.
Active managers tend to perform better in market environments like this one, MS said.
The bank recommends 12 stocks within attractive sectors with the highest stock-specific risk.
Those looking to pursue higher returns through index investing might not be as lucky as active stock pickers this time around given that the market is transitioning from lockdown to an economic reopening.
During this transition, the markets have seen massive amounts of stimulus, strong fourth-quarter earnings, and higher expectations for economic growth. These were enough to send valuations and leverage to record levels. But they also enabled three factors that collectively create a supportive environment for stock pickers, according to Boris Lerner, a quantitative strategist at Morgan Stanley.