Analysing The Second Wave: The Worst Should Be Over In Three Weeks
by Venu Gopal Narayanan - Apr 13, 2021 06:45 AM
Covid-19 testing.
Snapshot
Data shows that every cluster, no matter how large, has a peak life of less than a month.
And that is something we may take heart from.
Many large states of India are once again in the furious grip of a second wave of the Wuhan virus. New records are being set in daily case numbers along with steeper growth exponents.
A detailed analysis of the contagionâs pattern of spread through our populace therefore becomes necessary, to understand how the epidemic will progress this time round, and how it may abate.
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There’s no crystal ball for modeling the pandemic
Mathematical modelers explain challenges, limitations of their work to predict COVID-19 outcomes February 22, 2021 • By Sabrina Richards / Fred Hutch News Service While models can point to key variables that could slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2, modelers caution against expecting them to predict the exact numbers of cases of COVID-19. Getty Images Illustration
Dr. Laura Matrajt didn’t expect to make much noise on Twitter. She just wanted to clarify a term she’d seen sowing confusion on social media.
It was mid-March 2020, and the term was “flattening the curve.”
“I was seeing people in my social media discussing, ‘Is it useful? Is it not useful?’” she said. “Some were saying, ‘People are exaggerating, [SARS-CoV-2] is just like the flu.’”
The coronavirus has been escaping with distressing frequency from quarantine hotels, threatening serious outbreaks. To make things worse, multiple variants of the virus, possibly more infectious and deadly, have recently been detected. This accentuates the need for robust hotel quarantine, especially in countries like Australia that have controlled community transmission.
While the hotel quarantine system has received wide attention, relatively few people have had the opportunity to experience and observe it first hand. Even fewer have been able to compare with other regions handling similar challenges. I happen to have needed to travel overseas and thus experienced quarantine in several places over the past months.