This post is part of the Council on Foreign Relations’ blog series on women's leadership in peacebuilding and non-violent movements, in which CFR fellows, scholars, and practitioners highlight new security strategies. This post was authored by Dr. Marlene Spoerri, Independent Diplomat's Director of Inclusive Diplomacy and Systems Change.
The dangers posed by North Korea’s nuclear program moves ahead of the threat of a highly disruptive cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure, which was the top threat in both 2019 and 2020. Survey respondents continue to rank cyberattacks a top-tier risk for 2021.
A severe crisis between China and the United States over Taiwan rises to a top-tier conflict for the first time, reflecting heightened concern over the growing risk of military confrontation between major powers. However, an armed confrontation in the South China Sea involving U.S and Chinese forces is judged to have a lower likelihood this year than in 2020.
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Syria’s civil war has grown ever more complex in the six years since protesters first challenged the government. President Bashar al-Assad aims to reassert control nationwide, while predominantly Sunni Arab opposition forces seek to wrest the state from him. The diverse groups making up the opposition, however, differ on their visions for a post-Assad state, with their ostensible aims ranging from liberal democracy to theocracy.
Unlike Assad and the opposition, the self-proclaimed Islamic State is intent on erasing Syria’s borders to establish a state of its own in territory spanning parts of Iraq and Syria. Kurdish militants, who have fought to establish an autonomous, if not independent, national homeland in the country’s northeast, are the group’s primary foe.
By 1 January 2021, two southern European countries will have high-profile roles in international politics. Portugal will have taken up the presidency of the EU, following Italy’s assumption of the G20 presidency a month earlier. Both presidencies will run through the second (and perhaps third) wave of the covid-19 pandemic – an extraordinary time for Italian, Portuguese, and global politics.
The two presidencies will seek to implement a common, coordinated strategy on climate change and environmental issues more broadly, including the European Green Deal. And Italy will co-chair the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) alongside the United Kingdom, holding a round of preparatory meetings such as ‘Youth4Climate: Driving Ambition’ and the pre-COP26 summit. The goal of these efforts is to revamp the Paris Agreement on climate change and help fulfil its political ambitions – tasks that will likely become easier after the United States rejoins the deal under the inc