Forecasting economy guesswork
SHERRY SLATER | The Journal Gazette
Useless – that s how one Indiana University economist described turning this year to the procedures he typically uses to craft an economic forecast.
“Patterns from our history of normal business cycles are essentially irrelevant,” said Willard Witte, associate professor emeritus of economics. “What we are left with is pure guesswork.”
Witte is among the experts the Indiana Business Research Center calls on each year to prepare outlooks for the global, national, state and local economies. The panelists typically travel the state to present their views in person, but the coronavirus pandemic prompted IU to preempt its roadshow and post their views online instead.
Local jobless rate sees dip
Hits 4.8%, but region s labor force falls by 2,890 people
SHERRY SLATER | The Journal Gazette
The Fort Wayne MSA s jobless rate declined in November to 4.8%, slightly less than the 5.1% recorded in October, according to data released Monday by the Indiana Department of Workforce Development.
The unemployment rate was 3.1% in November 2019. Experts say year-to-year comparisons are the most accurate because they eliminate seasonal variations. The novel coronavirus pandemic and its effects on the labor market have upended that conventional wisdom, however.
The local metropolitan statistical area includes Allen, Wells and Whitley counties.
Indiana s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 5.0% in November, well below the national seasonally adjusted jobless rate of 6.7%. Experts say county and MSA data are too small to make seasonal adjustments.
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