(Very Rough) Computer Projections for 2021 Schedule
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Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
Large caveat: computer models have not been updated to account for offseason personnel gains and losses. These numbers will change through the course of the offseason and look different before the start of the season, but I wanted to give a baseline expectation for GT fans looking at the recently released 2021 football schedule.
Trigger Warning: It’s bad.
We used ESPN’s publicly available FPI model, which performed quite well this year, third highest of any model analyzed using Prediction Tracker. Each team receives a rating, and the difference in the ratings is the equivalent of a predicted point spread for the game. We assigned 2.5 points for home field advantage, the historical average notwithstanding the COVID craziness of 2020. Let’s take a look:
Matt Schmitto (schmitto) Created 2 months ago, Last Updated 2 months ago
Meeting for the first time since 2014, the Alabama Crimson Tide and Ohio State Buckeyes will clash inside Hard Rock Stadium on Monday, Jan. 11 for the 2021 College Football Playoff National Championship.
It’s not just any national title game â this game has one of the highest point totals of any national title game in college football history.
2021 CFP National Championship Odds
Entering Monday night ranked 1st and 2nd in offensive efficiency, respectively, Alabama and Ohio State are projected to combine for 75 points. Favored by 9 points at online sportsbooks, the Crimson Tide carry a projected team total of 42 and the Buckeyes 33.
December 21, 2020
Florida held its own against Alabama better than most expected in the SEC Championship Game. The Gators came oh-so-close to pulling it off if not for a handful of plays and penalties, too. The numbers show Bama as having the better performance overall, but they also show it wasn’t a fluke that UF was in it at the end.
This review is based on Bill Connelly’s Five Factors of winning, and sacks are counted as pass plays. I excluded the one-play series at the end of the first half.
Explosiveness
Everyone has a different definition for what counts as an “explosive play”, but I go with runs of at least 12 yards and passes of at least 16 yards.
Reviewing the 2020 Rutgers Scarlet Knights
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Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
In recent years, Rutgers football became known as a joke, going 13-47 over the previous six seasons. This past offseason, Greg Schiano returned to the school he led to six bowl games nearly a decade earlier. It only took one game for the difference to be apparent, as Rutgers opened the season with a 38-27 upset of Michigan State. In week two, Rutgers kept it competitive with Indiana most of the way, losing 37-21. Ohio State trounced the Scarlet Knights, though Rutgers did score three times in the fourth quarter of a 49-27 loss. Rutgers looked a little more like the Rutgers we knew in a 23-20 loss to Illinois, but bounced back with an entertaining triple overtime game against Michigan. The Wolverines emerged victorious 48-42 for their final victory of this season.
December 14, 2020
It’s rare that a coach can legitimately use “no one’s giving us a shot” as pregame motivation, but Ed Orgeron could’ve if he wanted to. Whether he did or not, his Tigers went into the Swamp and came away with as surprising a win as anyone’s seen on the Power 5 level in 2020. Let’s pull it apart to see what there is to learn from the experience.
This review is based on Bill Connelly’s Five Factors of winning, and sacks are counted as pass plays. I removed the kneel-down at the end of the first half from the efficiency/explosiveness numbers.