New York With a nuclear power plant prematurely retired in New York April 30 and the fate of two other plants in Illinois hanging in balance, the complexion of the US nuclear power fleet is in flux at a time when CO2 emissions reduction is high on the national agenda.
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Currently, just more than 8 GW of nuclear capacity is slated for retirement, with S&P Global Platts Analytics assessing roughly 5 GW of nuclear capacity at high risk of retirement before license expiration.
Assuming the high risk and announced retirements were to be replaced by natural gas-fired generation with an average heat rate of 7,000 Btu/kWh, an incremental 1.9 Bcf/d of power burn would result from replacing these retired generators, equivalent to about 39 million mt/year of CO2 emissions, or 2% of 2016 levels, according to Platts Analytics.
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As the United States moves toward decarbonization, cities and states must use all means available to reduce climate pollution, and natural gas utilities should be at the forefront of this rapid energy transition. Gas utilities are the subject of increasing scrutiny because plans to expand and fortify their infrastructure could lock in greenhouse gas emissions and costs for decades. As the industry reckons with its role in a decarbonized future, advocates, utilities and regulators alike are calling for a carefully-managed transition that avoids costly long-term investments. New York has been at the forefront of this effort, seeking to balance ambitious climate goals with outdated natural gas investment planning processes.
The Indian Point nuclear power plant in New York will permanently shut down during the evening of April 30 when the 1,041-MW Unit 3 will power down, removing capacity that is likely to be replaced by natural gas-fired generation during higher load periods.
Not registered? Receive daily email alerts, subscriber notes & personalize your experience. Register Now The Indian Point shutdown has been anticipated for some time and we expect few immediate price impacts in the shoulder months, Kieran Kemmerer, power market analyst with S&P Global Platts Analytics, said in an email. During periods of higher load, we anticipate the nuclear generation to be replaced by gas-fired generation in the region running at higher capacity factors. Additionally, exports to New England from downstate New York are likely to fall as more New York generation flows south into load centers.