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Theatre director Thomas Bellinck’s dystopian vision ‘The House of European History in Exile’, a museum exhibition in Brussels in 2013, when Brexit itself looked improbable, predicted that an independent Scotland would be the last country to join the EU. His exhibition forecast that the UK would leave the EU, resulting in Scotland joining the EU in 2017. The EU itself would then collapse a year later. At the time, it looked like a triumph of wild artistic licence over logic. Fast forward to 2021 and while the prospect of EU collapse is still a Eurosceptic fantasy, the conditions for a Scottish independence referendum could scarcely be better. Thursday’s elections in Scotland are likely to give the Scottish National Party another majority and a mandate for a second referendum on Scottish independence.

United kingdomBruxelles capitaleCity ofVirginijus sinkeviNicolas schmitThomas bellinckAlex salmondNicola sturgeonBoris johnsonWorld press freedom dayCentre for european policyFree press coalitionScottish national partyDevelopment ministers meetingEuropean historyFirst minister nicola sturgeon