Chinese rebar and hot-rolled coil futures also jumped after the market recorded heavy losses over the past few weeks following the government's vow to stabilise commodity prices.
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Palladium to end the year stronger at $3000, platinum to suffer a fall to $900 – CENEWS |
5/25/2021 6:50:50 AM GMT | By FXStreet Insights Team
The recent disruption to global auto production stemming from ongoing semiconductor microchip shortages poses a downside risk to Capital Economics’ price forecasts for platinum and palladium. The bank maps out the potential impact on demand for the metals from three different scenarios.
Palladium market to keep in a deficit, platinum market to see a much stronger revival in global supply
“Our central scenario assumes the chip shortage limits vehicle production to around 80% of Q4 2020 levels in Q2 before easing, with the shortage fully relieved by mid-2022. In our upside scenario, vehicle production remains close to current levels this quarter, and the shortage is alleviated by end-2021. In our downside scenario, the shortage worsens, only improves from Q4, and is not fully resolved u
Monday, May 17, 2021 - 03:22 PM
While some commodities have successfully halted last week s post China-crackdown rout, such as copper and Iron Ore.
. others have been less lucky, most notably lumber which until last week had become the posted child of the current inflationary euphoria when something snapped, and after six consecutive days of declines,
Lumber is now in a (Lum)bear market, down 23% in one week from its May 10 record high of $1,733.50 when it almost caught up to an ounce of gold, but not quite.
And if Capital Economics lumber price forecast is correct, it s about to get much worse.
Alternatively, this could be just the pause that refreshes, because as the WSJ reported this morning, even though North America’s sawmills can’t keep up with demand - which has sent wood prices soaring - don’t expect new mills to start popping up though.