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Calculated Risk

Private sector employment increased by 174,000 jobs from December to January according to the January according to the December ADP National Employment Report®. . The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. “The labor market continues its slow recovery amid COVID-19 headwinds,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Although job losses were previously concentrated among small and midsized businesses, we are now seeing signs of the prolonged impact of the pandemic on large companies as well.” emphasis addedThis was well above the consensus forecast of 45,000 for this report.

2:00PM Water Cooler 2/2/2021 | naked capitalism

“Moonstruck sleep: Synchronization of human sleep with the moon cycle under field conditions” [Science]. “Our results show that sleep starts later and is shorter on the nights before the full moon when moonlight is available during the hours following dusk. Our data suggest that moonlight likely stimulated nocturnal activity and inhibited sleep in preindustrial communities and that access to artificial light may emulate the ancestral effect of early-night moonlight.” Health Care “Single Dose Administration, And The Influence Of The Timing Of The Booster Dose On Immunogenicity and Efficacy Of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) Vaccine” (preprint) [The Lancet]. “ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination programmes aimed at vaccinating a large proportion of the population with a single dose, with a second dose given after a 3 month period is an effective strategy for reducing disease, and may be the optimal for rollout of a pandemic vaccine when supplies are limited in the short term.” The M

Calculated Risk: CoreLogic: House Prices up 9 2% Year-over-year in December

The housing market exceeded expectations in 2020, closing out the year with the highest annual home price gain since February 2014 in December at 9.2%. Despite a blip in April, home-purchase demand surged as record-low mortgage rates persuaded first-time homebuyers to enter the market. Meanwhile, the consequences of the pandemic were seen in the dwindling supply of homes dropping, on average, 24% below 2019 levels as homeowners delayed selling. These factors translated to significant home price growth in 2020, surpassing the previous year’s levels with an average monthly year-over-year gain of 5.7%, compared with 3.8% in 2019. However, with the severe shortage of for-sale homes, we may see rising affordability concerns and some prospective buyers priced out of the market in 2021.

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