(Alma E. Hernandez/Gallup Independent via AP)
Yesterday, the American Association for Public Opinion Research released a report on polling for the 2020 election. It was pretty ugly. This is the key, in my view, finding.
The 2020 polls featured polling error of an unusual magnitude: It was the highest in 40 years for the national popular vote and the highest in at least 20 years for state-level estimates of the vote in presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial contests.5 Among polls conducted in the final two weeks, the average error on the margin in either direction was 4.5 points for national popular vote polls and 5.1 points for state-level presidential polls.
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Many Americans lost faith in political polls after the 2016 election. As we watched
The New York Times‘ tracker show Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning fall from 85% on November 8, 2020, to zero at the end of tabulation early in the morning of November 10, we wondered how the
Times and so many others had gotten it so wrong. Before election night, the Trump campaign asserted that “shy” Trump voters could disrupt the election. While Morning Consult and
Politico determined that these shy Trump voters did exist, the outlets were sure this phenomenon would not be enough to swing the election.
When Trump won, pollsters blamed their significant miss on factors like the education divide and offered suggestions to fix it. They fiddled with their data collection and analysis methods for the polls. Yet, up and down the ballot, they missed again in 2020. They predicted Democrats would gain seats in the House and easily win a Senate majority. The statistical bias toward Democ
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