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Originally published on May 20, 2021 1:32 pm
It’s going to be another busy hurricane season in the Gulf South, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center.
The 2020 season brought a record-breaking 30 storms, including 14 hurricanes, seven of which were major. NOAA scientists expect numbers above average once again in 2021, though not quite so high, said Ben Friedman, acting NOAA administrator.
But the numbers are close: a likely range of 13 to 20 named storms, of which six to 10 could become hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes.
“Now is the time for communities along the coastline as well as inland to get prepared for the dangers that hurricanes can bring,” Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo said.
The Atlantic hurricane season doesn t start until June 1, but meteorologists on Friday afternoon were tracking a well-defined low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico with winds of 30-35 mph near and east of the center, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The tropical disturbance stood a 60% chance of becoming a cyclone in the next 48 hours, but forecasters warned Friday that regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana through Saturday. Citing recent downpours in that area in the past week, the hurricane center also warned that any additional heavy rain could lead to flash flooding there.
NOAA predicting another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season
Warm ocean temperatures, weak trade winds could lead to high number of named storms in 2021 Satellite image of Hurricane Laura on Aug. 27, 2020.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2021.
Forecasters predict a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. However, experts don’t anticipate a historic level of activity like that in 2020, when a record-tying 31 tropical cyclones formed (2005), with a record-breaking 30 of them becoming named storms.
2021 Atlantic hurricane season forecast. (Sources: NOAA, Colorado State University)
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While the number of storms in a hurricane season doesn’t necessarily mean South Carolina will be directly hit, the forecast is still ominous with another active Atlantic season on the horizon.
The
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shared its seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecast last week. While scientists don’t anticipate the historic level of storm activity seen last year, they still predict a 60% chance for an above-normal hurricane season, NOAA said in a news release.
For hurricane season, occurring between June 1 and November 30, those predictions include 13-20 named storms, of which 6-10 could become hurricanes and 3-5 could become major hurricanes, meaning Category 3, 4 or 5.