If the Hartlepool by-election “were held tomorrow”, Labour would almost certainly hold on to the seat, says the New Statesman’s political editor Stephen Bush.
But “the election is not being held tomorrow, and what we don’t know is whether the increase in the government’s fortunes has yet reached its peak”, he continues. That said, “you’d expect a Labour hold” as opposed to “a Conservative triumph” in a seat that has never voted Tory.
HuffPost executive editor Paul Waugh is more confident that Starmer’s party will prevail, arguing that “with the right candidate, Labour should be increasing its majority in Hartlepool, not hanging on for dear life”.
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Paul Waugh | HuffPost
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