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In politics, as in weather, there can be a sudden change in the prevailing winds. Take the last three weeks before November’s elections, when a narrow but pivotal slice of voters, mostly independents, got cold feet about giving Democrats the big win that had appeared to be almost certain. Perhaps becaus of latent concerns about “democratic socialism” and a slew of progressive priorities that Democrats talked up during the primary season, voters delivered Democrats the unified government they craved, but only by the tiniest of margins.
More often, however, the weather patterns shift gradually, like a change of seasons. A handful of factors develop that can be potentially decisive.
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Biden wins more districts, but the fewest crossover districts ever.
In 2020, Joe Biden became the first Democrat to carry a majority of congressional districts since Barack Obama in 2008. Biden carried 224 of 435 districts, up from Hillary Clinton s 205 districts in 2016 and Obama s 209 in 2012. A small factor in Biden s edge: between 2016 and 2020, courts in North Carolina and Pennsylvania ordered new maps that were less favorable to Republicans.
2020 s results also lay bare the decline in split-ticket voting. The House is extremely well sorted out: just 16 of 435 districts crossed over to vote for presidential and House candidates of opposite parties, down from 35 in 2016 and 108 in 1996. Today, there are nine Republicans sitting in districts Biden carried, and seven Democrats in districts Trump carried. This beats 2012 s record low of 26 districts.