March 2021 Headline Pending Home Sales Improve
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) seasonally adjusted pending home sales index improved. Our analysis shows significant growth this month.
Analyst Opinion of Pending Home Sales
So far, the recovery is well beyond my expectations of a lackluster recovery. It is almost like the pandemic never happened for home sales. However, the inventory remains too low to support much of an acceleration of growth.
Pending home sales are based on contract signings, and existing home sales are based on the execution of the contract (contract closing).
The NAR reported:
The market [from Econoday] was expecting month-over-month
USD/CAD - Canadian Dollar Soaring The Canadian dollar is taking flight thanks to U.S. fiscal stimulus, a dovish Federal Open Market Committee outlook, and rising oil prices.
WTI oil climbed to $64.82 in New York today, from $60.55/b last Thursday. Goldman Sachs analysts forecast even higher prices, as U.S. fiscal stimulus drives a global economic boom, which will increase demand for crude. The Canadian dollar got a bit of a boost on the move.
Overnight, equity traders liked what they heard from President Joe Biden and Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The major Asia equity index closed with gains except for Japanese markets, which were closed for a national holiday. European bourses are trading with gains, and S&P futures are at record highs.
Later this morning, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) will release the US Existing Home Sales (EHS) for March. According to the Bloomberg consensus, EHS should decrease by 1.1% MoM to 6.15 million SAAR. It would be the lowest level since August 2020.
EHS will decline more than expected because of technical and fundamental factors:
Buyers signed contracts in February (and to a lesser extent in January) for most March sales. Therefore, March EHS were still affected by adverse weather conditions.
A larger fall than forecasted would be coherent with the trend in Pending Home Sales (PHS).
Local/state reports show that, on a YoY basis, sales rose at a faster pace in March (non-seasonally adjusted: NSA) due to calendar and positive base effects. Ajusting for these biases, it resulted in a drop on a MoM basis (seasonally adjusted: SA).
January 2021 Headline Pending Home Sales Significantly Decline econintersect.com - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from econintersect.com Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
December 2020 Headline Pending Home Sales Decline Again
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) seasonally adjusted pending home sales index declined. Our analysis shows improvement this month. The quote of the day from this NAR release:
. Despite dropping slightly in the last month of 2020, the latest pending home sales registered as the highest ever recorded in the month of December
Analyst Opinion of Pending Home Sales
So far, the recovery is well beyond my expectations of a lackluster recovery. It is almost like the pandemic never happened. However, the inventory remains too low to support much further acceleration of growth.
Pending home sales are based on contract signings, and existing home sales are based on the execution of the contract (contract closing).