The K7RA Solar Update 05/14/2021
Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspot activity returned last Friday, May 7, and has held steady since. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 11.9 to 21.1, and average daily solar flux was up 2.1 points to 74.3 for the reporting week ending May 12.
Geomagnetic activity was quiet until Wednesday, May 12, when the planetary A index went to 41 as the result of a coronal mass ejection (CME) that blasted out of the sun on May 9. It was not expected to be very strong, but when it struck on May 12, it sparked a G3 class geomagnetic storm the strongest in the current solar cycle.
The K7RA Solar Update 04/30/2021
Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspots have continued to appear every day after April 11 the last day with no sunspots.
Average daily sunspot number rose this week from 35.1 to 47.6, and average daily solar flux also rose, from 78 to 79.2.
Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, with average daily planetary A index declining from 16.4 to 10.7. The most active day was April 25 with a planetary A index of 20.
Predicted solar flux over the next month is 77, 75, and 72 on April 30 – May 2; 70 on May 3 – 6; 72 on May 7 – 9; 73 on May 10 – 11; 74 on May 12 – 13; 77 on May 14; 79 on May 15 – 23; 78 on May 24 – 2, and 75 and 73 on May 28 – 29.
Predicted planetary A index 8 on April 30 – May 1; 15, 12, 12, and 8 on May 2 – 5; 5 on May 6 – 10; 8, 12, 20, and 30 on May 11 – 14; 15 on May 15 – 16; 12 on May 17; 5 on May 18 – 19; 15 and 10 on May 20 – 21; 5 on May 22 – 28, and 15, 12, and 10 on May 29 – 31. After th
The K7RA Solar Update 04/23/2021
Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Four new sunspots emerged this week and were visible every day.
Spaceweather.com issued a warning on April 22: “A CME is heading for Earth. and it could spark a geomagnetic storm when it arrives on April 25. NOAA forecasters say moderately strong G2-class storms are possible, which means auroras could dip into northern-tier US states from Maine to Washington.”
Average daily sunspot number surged from 7 to 35.1, while average daily solar flux increased from 75 to 78.
Due to seemingly constant solar wind, average planetary A index rose from 5.1 to 16.4, and average daily middle latitude A index went from 4.1 to 13.
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The K7RA Solar Update 04/09/2021
Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: Sunspots were only visible on 4 days of the current reporting week on April 3-6 and now on Friday morning, still no sunspots.
As a result, average daily sunspot number declined from 11.9 last week to 6.4 currently. Average daily solar flux also dropped from 77.4 to 73.4. On Thursday the daily solar flux was 74, just above the average for the previous 7 days, 73.4. The sun remained blank.
Average daily planetary A index declined from 8.9 to 6.6, and average mid-latitude A index slipped from 7.7 to 5.6.
Predicted solar flux for the next month is 74 on April 9 – 15; 72 on April 16 – 20; 74 on April 21 – 26; 73 on April 27 – May 1; 72 on May 2 – 5; 70 on May 6 – 10, and 71 on May 11 – 12; 74 is not a high 10.7-centimeter flux value, but it should be there on May 18 and beyond.